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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #23,981
  • May 1, 2011 3:34pm May 1, 2011 3:34pm
Short term it might be a long at these low levels, and because of the G7 intervention I am looking for a good entry point to go long, G7 didn't intervene for no reason, looking to go long
I'm watching this currency so closely I'm using windows magnifier
  • #23,982
  • May 1, 2011 6:13pm May 1, 2011 6:13pm
any one long here im looking for 4hrs to confirm it long but im in already...
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be patient, self-belief and discipline... stay focus...
  • #23,983
  • May 1, 2011 7:14pm May 1, 2011 7:14pm
this make me crying
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be patient, self-belief and discipline... stay focus...
  • #23,984
  • May 1, 2011 7:38pm May 1, 2011 7:38pm
Quoting radit27
any one long here im looking for 4hrs to confirm it long but im in already...
Long only with a small position.

My bigger position is short.

Preferably going down touching 76 again, before I see a convincing buy signal.
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #23,985
  • May 2, 2011 10:12am May 2, 2011 10:12am
whats your analysis ?

Quoting georgem
Long only with a small position.

My bigger position is short.

Preferably going down touching 76 again, before I see a convincing buy signal.
  • #23,986
  • May 2, 2011 10:32am May 2, 2011 10:32am
Can some one explain this for me? I get IFR news with my Oanda account, but I don't trade fx options and so I don't know what these figures mean or if they are even relevant for retail trade.

Quote
FX OPTIONS: Very long dated USD/JPY vol trades 7 Year USD/JPY 85.50's are said to have gone through late in the Asian session today at 16.05, while earlier in the day there were reports of a 4 year expiry 61.00 JPY call strike trading at 16.65.
  • #23,987
  • May 2, 2011 12:21pm May 2, 2011 12:21pm
Quoting tankokjian
whats your analysis ?
Fundamentally:

Repatriation hasnt even really started yet, since it is still "red alert" and the situation is not under control in japan.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/marketj...-repatriation/

Repatriation will be a gradual process over the next months and years. Will be bullish for yen.

But in small timeframe we will continue to see high volatility. But in the long term bullish for yen, no matter what. Plus Dollar is *****
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #23,988
  • May 2, 2011 12:52pm May 2, 2011 12:52pm
demand zone + 50% fibo + falling wedge ...
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TRUST THE PROCESS !
  • #23,989
  • May 2, 2011 5:53pm May 2, 2011 5:53pm
I wonder if we are possibly sitting @the bottom.
  • #23,990
  • May 2, 2011 9:44pm May 2, 2011 9:44pm
just playing on the range and fibo should be able to fish a few pips here and there.

Quoting theIEguy9_09
I wonder if we are possibly sitting @the bottom.
  • #23,991
  • May 2, 2011 10:52pm May 2, 2011 10:52pm
The breathing room they created in March plus more? I mean I think the LITTLEST intervention or maybe just the discussion at this level here would create kick this out of correction mode strong into uptrend that could come self sustaining technically. But I think if they let it linger much longer here speculators will pushand and the BOJ lose the edge from correction to downtrend continuation. Kinda clueless it feels.... no plan? Almost FOUR WEEKS of no real upside, every little bump up is quickly hammered. Feeling more like downtrend continuation rather than correction of april high. Just weird that the BOJ went through all that effort to get a nice move going in line with their agenda and no follow through?!?!? Baffling. If they dont protect their work soon they may get things going against them with another strong setback that will take a lot more than the little it would take right here. Am I way off here?
  • #23,992
  • May 2, 2011 11:07pm May 2, 2011 11:07pm
Quoting georgem
Repatriation will be a gradual process over the next months and years. Will be bullish for yen.
Not trying to be a jerk here I ask this cause this suprises me and I dont want to be off in my expectations. So...

How will this repatriation last years? I am no expert so help me undertand. Common sense dicates if you need the capital for whatever disaster reason then you are more likely to transfer assest sooner rather than later. How does the effects of repatriation last much longer than a few months?
  • #23,993
  • May 2, 2011 11:52pm May 2, 2011 11:52pm
Repatriation hasnt even really started yet ?? Why and how do u determine this?

Quoting georgem
Fundamentally:

Repatriation hasnt even really started yet, since it is still "red alert" and the situation is not under control in japan.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/marketj...-repatriation/

Repatriation will be a gradual process over the next months and years. Will be bullish for yen.

But in small timeframe we will continue to see high volatility. But in the long term bullish for yen, no matter what. Plus Dollar is *****
  • #23,994
  • May 3, 2011 12:07am May 3, 2011 12:07am
that repatriation hasnt startted. More likely reading his post i think he is implying & like most places I have read that the bulk of repatriation hasnt gotten rolling.

Personally this feels like one of those hot button issues the talking heads will prattle on for a while but amounts to not much. I have read both sides of the coin and I'd say its not a given that this will be a major factor. But we all have to put our money here our mouth is... and if I am wrong and repatriation does materialize into a real world factor I still trying to figure out how this last more than several months?
  • #23,995
  • May 3, 2011 12:40am May 3, 2011 12:40am
Quoting hotwheelzzz
... I still trying to figure out how this last more than several months?
people. this catastrophy in japan is one of the biggest in modern history.

the amounts of money and commodities needed to rebuild are INSANE.

you just cant move it around in days or weeks.

catastrophy hasnt even settled down so that the rebuilding can start.

this whole shit might even trigger a new kind of japanese isolationism....

we will see....
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #23,996
  • May 3, 2011 12:51am May 3, 2011 12:51am
Quoting hotwheelzzz
that repatriation hasnt startted. More likely reading his post i think he is implying & like most places I have read that the bulk of repatriation hasnt gotten rolling.
We don't know anything about repatriation....at all. What happened after the Kobe earthquake, repatriation did happen, no doubt about that. However, the world is a different place now, to what it was then. No one, except Noda, Kan and a few others, know whether there will be a massive repatriation of Yen or not. Or if there is, how big it will be......and from where?......and under what conditions?.......for how long?.......etc etc etc. That is the fact of the matter.....WE DON'T KNOW.

So, what DO we know? We know that the Japanese economy is in deep shit. We know that their GDPebt is somewhere around 200%.....FAAAAR worse than Greece etc ever were. We know that they are still stuck in a deflationary spiral. We know that they have lost market share to Korea, China, Taiwan etc, and that market share is gone forever.We know that the population is getting older exponentially day by day. Most importantly, we know that if Japan is to get itself out of financial shit, it HAS to EXPORT it's way out. There is no other way.

Now, how can Japan export with an ever stronger Yen? Quite simply, it can't.

So, repatriation or not, I do not imagine that Japan will let the Yen rise and rise and rise.....to allow that to happen will cripple the economic recovery.

Those are the facts. Everything else is speculation.

Trade what you see....leave the speculation to the gamblers!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,997
  • May 3, 2011 1:58am May 3, 2011 1:58am
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A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #23,998
  • May 3, 2011 2:14am May 3, 2011 2:14am
This may be rather simplistic but I have no idea fundimentally how the yen could show ANY strength against the dollar.

I KNOW I KNOW right now everybody is saying have you seen the dollars PA? It so weak.. Yes it is and rightfully so. The Fed has very aggressively kept rates low and with QE1 & QE2 was able to keep bond speculators from driving rates up. And Bernake has signaled yet again that his plans for rate increases will be done slowly, cautiously and begrudgingly lol.... a dinner bell for dollar short. I just think the yen is mistakenly lumped in here.

Just about every metric you can use too price a currency signals a weak dollar. Where I dont get the picture is how you can lump the yen in with dollar outperformers like AUD, EU, NZD etc. In almost all those same metrics the yen SHOULD be weaker than the dollar. Yes the dollar should be weak but fundimentaly the yen should be weaker! Personally I think traders just see weak dollar and trade it that way accross the board... yen gets an unfair benifit if that is the case. But one thing I learned a long time ago as a trader, even if a price descrepency in any asset price is clear it doesnt mean you can trade that. Irrational investing can last a while. One has to wait for the heard to catch up on understanding the imbalance and starts to correct the trade.
  • #23,999
  • May 3, 2011 2:51am May 3, 2011 2:51am
Quoting hotwheelzzz
The Fed has very aggressively kept rates low and with QE1 & QE2 was able to keep bond speculators from driving rates up. And Bernake has signaled yet again that his plans for rate increases will be done slowly, cautiously and begrudgingly lol.... a dinner bell for dollar short. I just think the yen is mistakenly lumped in here.
Interesting points......Let me take it one step further. We know how much it pisses America off that China undervalues it's currency. we also know that China doesn't give a damn about that....they even went so far as to warn Obama not so long a go, to not get into a currency war with it, because America will lose......and China is quite correct and Obama knows it. Also, we have the hypocrisy of Obama telling China not to interfere in the currency rate, while (via QE 1 and QE 2) America is doing exactly that.....interfering in the currency rate, all be it indirectly.

So....I think to myself, is the Fed and Bernanke deliberately preaching doom and gloom and (possibly) manipulating the figures to show the dollar in a much worse light than really is the case?......with the aim of weakening the greenback so as to compete head to head with China without directly entering a currency war?

That might sound far fetched.....but the Fed has never played on a level playing field has it?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,000
  • May 3, 2011 3:07am May 3, 2011 3:07am
that I havent already considered myself. Bernakes BLATANT refusal to acknowldge inflation has been the final puzzle peice of the puzzle for me. I think that behind close dors the plan was to heal the US ny at least for a couple years, devaluing the dollar.

As you stated many countries including the states have been on china for currency manipulation so the Fed couldnr aknowledge this has been the plan but I have a feeling years down the road somebodies memoirs will substantiate what we see. We have entered a new era where countires will use currency valuation as a tool more aggressively.

Interesting thoughts realjumper. Now when does the yen show some weakness?
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