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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #2,301
  • May 2, 2011 11:32am May 2, 2011 11:32am
Quoting mzvega
Whats your opinion on the NY IB #'s, below avg range, on below avg vol.? as Gw mentioned, Londons not driving today.I wouldnt think there could be much validity to that move. Markets can get volatile on low vol. trading. Any thoughts? I havent had time to post a chart but Im short @ 1.48607 &1.4875. Im looking for price to go to ny ibh or poc.
narrow range for NY IB tells me price didn't have to go far to find buyers or sellers, therefore it was in accepted value. You are probably right, price will find its way back there as it coincides with the developing POC.

London certainly not driving as its a holiday in Europe today (as was friday). interesting how price has essentially not moved since the last London session.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,302
  • May 2, 2011 11:34am May 2, 2011 11:34am
Quoting Oxford
Not quite shure about longs atm. We are just end one-timeframing. As per VSA we had climax buying. On the other hand, looking at the weekly MP we had a rising POC, so unclear.

EDIT: further, todays POC has not moved much on the upside!
notice though how that buying climax bar on the 15M closed above value and was highest close of the day at that point. It could be considered as absorption of supply.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,303
  • May 2, 2011 11:50am May 2, 2011 11:50am
Budy, you could be very right!

Quoting tgwhbb
notice though how that buying climax bar on the 15M closed above value and was highest close of the day at that point. It could be considered as absorption of supply.
  • #2,304
  • May 2, 2011 12:01pm May 2, 2011 12:01pm
I didnt post a chart of my entries. I wanted to include a photo of 2 profiles overlayed. It helps me see the larger profile. Im just experimenting.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: d&w ol.jpg Size: 163 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: d.jpg Size: 113 KB
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,305
  • May 2, 2011 12:18pm May 2, 2011 12:18pm
Hi Vega,
Can you tell me why you took the shorts? Would love to learn from you.

Best,
Ox
Quoting mzvega
I didnt post a chart of my entries. I wanted to include a photo of 2 profiles overlayed. It helps me see the larger profile. Im just experimenting.
  • #2,306
  • Edited 1:01pm May 2, 2011 12:51pm | Edited 1:01pm
Quoting Oxford
Hi Vega,
Can you tell me why you took the shorts? Would love to learn from you.

Best,
Ox
I goes back to measured moves theory. If you could buy & sell only 3x's the IB, price drove 2x and stalled. Thats 2x times your power used. There is still 1x of extention of power left. Prices are increasing if you are trying to buy at discount you need to stop driving higher in order to get a better price to continue buying the remaining 1x at discount. So it should imo return to where those inital buyers started buying before they accumulate more, if theyre really buying. They also have 1x's power left to drive 1x below the IB. The initial 2x move could also could have been used to draw other traders into the up move and then reverse 1x's to the down side. Its just a way to track how much buying and sell power a comm trader has used to achieve his goals. So its just measuring how much and where theyve used they're power within the guidelines that he has to work with. Im not always right but it seems to work for me and keeps me in trades where in the past I would have bailed.
Edit: also the failed test of last weeks vah helped in my decision to short.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,307
  • May 2, 2011 1:10pm May 2, 2011 1:10pm
Quoting mzvega
I goes back to measured moves theory. If you could buy & sell only 3x's the IB, price drove 2x and stalled. Thats 2x times your power used. There is still 1x of extention of power left. Prices are increasing if you are trying to buy at discount you need to stop driving higher in order to get a better price to continue buying the remaining 1x at discount. So it should imo return to where those inital buyers started buying before they accumulate more, if theyre really buying. They also have 1x's power left to drive 1x below the IB. The initial 2x...
Your reasoning seems very well thought out. I have one question it appears your numbers aren't the standard ones. Are you using the first hour of London Trading for your initial balance of 3am ny time. And 8am ny time??? When I have those numbers in my charts look like this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,308
  • May 2, 2011 1:25pm May 2, 2011 1:25pm
Medici, was kind enough to recommend I read the attached .pdf. when I first started posting here. He also shared it with the orderflow thread. Is about Fx micro strcture and its different participants. It is very informative. And "Thank You!" Medici, I found it of great value!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf FXMicrostructure-Survey_07-15-08 (1)1.pdf   630 KB | 935 downloads
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,309
  • Edited 2:13pm May 2, 2011 1:30pm | Edited 2:13pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
Your reasoning seems very well thought out. I have one question it appears your numbers aren't the standard ones. Are you using the first hour of London Trading for your initial balance of 3am ny time. And 8am ny time??? When I have those numbers in my charts look like this.
I use 0gmt for asia, 07 gmt for London ( I use frankfurt open & close) and 12gmt for US. I believe it is the globex trading hours, which are different from stock market hours. London does a wierd BST thing. I prefer Frankfurt, they open before and close later than London.

Edit: I also include a 1.5 ex (to my charts only) I didnt recomend to everyone as alot of people have other perspectives. as not to confuse people. On my chart 1.5x is DIBH, 2x 1.5ex (i got that # from the measured moves video, it just for reference and price often responds to it), 3x is the second x, and 4x the third. When I have time Ill change the wording as not to confuse. I cant build an indi, so I work with what I have. Its the same just with an extra line which others may or may not find useful.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,310
  • May 2, 2011 2:15pm May 2, 2011 2:15pm
Thanks Vega!

Yes, confusion is sometimes bad. This is what happened today. I'm currently diving deeper into AMT and feeling somewhat confused with all the information. Need to chew it all a little bit longer.

Do you have any target for your short?

Quoting mzvega
I use 0gmt for asia, 07 gmt for London ( I use frankfurt open & close) and 12gmt for US. I believe it is the globex trading hours, which are different from stock market hours. London does a wierd BST thing. I prefer Frankfurt, they open before and close later than London.

Edit: I also include a 1.5 ex (to my charts only) I didnt recomend to everyone as alot of people have other perspectives. as not to confuse people. On my chart 1.5x is DIBH, 2x 1.5ex (i got that # from the measured moves video, it just for reference and price often responds...
  • #2,311
  • Edited 2:36pm May 2, 2011 2:30pm | Edited 2:36pm
Quoting Oxford
Thanks Vega!

Yes, confusion is sometimes bad. This is what happened today. I'm currently diving deeper into AMT and feeling somewhat confused with all the information. Need to chew it all a little bit longer.

Do you have any target for your short?
In a perfect world DIBl . The open 1.4815 possibly, depending on pa. A test of the open is important. We also have a Mvpoc @1.4838. Kind of where price takes me. But those are levels I may consider an exit.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,312
  • May 2, 2011 2:32pm May 2, 2011 2:32pm
14832 is quite possible! Congratulations. My hope is you'll write more that I can learn more from you . Thanks!

Quoting mzvega
In a perfect world DIBl . The open 1.4815 possibly, depending on pa. A test of the open is important. We also have a Mvpoc @1.4832. Kind of where price takes me. But those are levels I may consider an exit.
  • #2,313
  • May 2, 2011 2:38pm May 2, 2011 2:38pm
Quoting Oxford
14832 is quite possible! Congratulations. My hope is you'll write more that I can learn more from you . Thanks!
Thank you, I appreciate the kind words
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,314
  • May 2, 2011 3:10pm May 2, 2011 3:10pm
Quoting mzvega
In a perfect world DIBl . The open 1.4815 possibly, depending on pa. A test of the open is important. We also have a Mvpoc @1.4838. Kind of where price takes me. But those are levels I may consider an exit.


nice trade management! i took a short back at 4870 but exited way too early once again when some volume came in just above the POC...
Change is the only constant
  • #2,315
  • May 2, 2011 3:23pm May 2, 2011 3:23pm
Quoting Oxford
Budy, you could be very right!
looks like buying climax after all...4860 will make a nice short entry again if the PA is right.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,316
  • May 2, 2011 3:54pm May 2, 2011 3:54pm
Quoting tgwhbb


nice trade management! i took a short back at 4870 but exited way too early once again when some volume came in just above the POC...
I often find that just like the daily VA, the IB acts similar. I try to trust in the idea that price when it returns to va (IB) if not rejected it will go to the otherside or often almost to the pip of the IBl, if not further. If im short on a x failure (from the top down), I dont see myself as wrong until I get rejection at the IB high and Ill hold it atleast to the otherside of IB. But for me its the same MP rules just applied in a smaller scale for the session, as long as its within the context of the larger daily profile. Try watching how price acts in that respect to the IB in future days ahead. See how that concept works over time in "real time". Form your own opinion, it may work you, it may not. But observation is key.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,317
  • May 2, 2011 10:58pm May 2, 2011 10:58pm
Just to share a portion of Market in Profile idea here.

Pg 106
I don’t have hard and fast definitions for “intermediate term” or “long
term,” but I’m willing to go with nearly any breakout from balance. Like-
wise, I will fade a balance area extreme if volume doesn’t support the
auction’s advertisement at that price level. And then there are those oc-
casions where the market is in total balance and volume doesn’t disclose
any meaningful information, in which case I simply wait for a new auction
to begin.

-----------
Before friday NFP I think use VSA to check those break out is real or fake will be useful.

I did make some pips to fade price break 4900 I like tough time like this, it test my patience and observation skill.
  • #2,318
  • May 3, 2011 1:59am May 3, 2011 1:59am
Quoting alexm
Just to share a portion of Market in Profile idea here.

Pg 106
I don’t have hard and fast definitions for “intermediate term” or “long
term,” but I’m willing to go with nearly any breakout from balance. Like-
wise, I will fade a balance area extreme if volume doesn’t support the
auction’s advertisement at that price level. And then there are those oc-
casions where the market is in total balance and volume doesn’t disclose
any meaningful information, in which case I simply wait for a new auction
to begin.

-----------
Before...


4900 is POC of 2009 Q4
I fade it too Alex, close half of it at +100, set remainder at be+1 targeting april vah 4650..
when i do this trick, usually it ended at be+1 lol... let see
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...
  • #2,319
  • Edited 3:11am May 3, 2011 2:59am | Edited 3:11am
ATM it looks like we have:

- POC of previous days countinously coming lower
- Open Drive
- A trend day building
- Weekly profile supports I guess

EDIT: - one-timeframe activity

Any opinion welcome.
Ox
  • #2,320
  • May 3, 2011 3:03am May 3, 2011 3:03am
Quoting Oxford
ATM it looks like we have:

- POC of previous days countinously coming lower
- Open Drive
- A trend day building
- Weekly profile supports I guess

Any opinion welcome.
Ox

Sell ~FO as posted elsewhere......a nice 50+ pips to start the week.....

Eu 15 min chart
GM all - now that the long - UKwise - holidays are over its back to the markets - and please send us the sun back, a week of rain here is sufficient thanks http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif

This morning we had a confluence of a fibo retrace, monthly M3 AND the POC levels of the last 3 days action - here using the TPO / activity setting for the AMP indy, so plenty of reasons for watching that area on the 5 min chart. There, tweezers then two LHs etc gave clear potential entries.....now will we break the last mini support at 4791 and head for the overnight 4770 area....TWT
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1304408588
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