Euro Has $1.94 in Its Sights. Futility of predictions

A little discussion started on the FF news place and I think it will be very instructive ( especially for newbies) if more experienced traders join to expand on the subject.

You can find the article here http://seekingalpha.com/article/2665...-in-its-sights

My point is that what makes a analyst out there is more related to a roll of a dice than actually knowledge.And the beauty of their profession is that if they are right they capitalize on it, if not...well...nothing happens. They have ZERO liability about what they say.

On the movie "broke" a guy that comments very often on CNBC explicitly acknowledge to the fact that if he is right or wrong does not really matters for the network. For as long as he act politely in front of the cameras they will keep calling him back.

Can the E/U go to 1.94? Of course it can. I personally believe it will go to 0.94 before 1.94, but the point is that this guy just rolled the dices. If indeed the pair shuts up in a relative short amount of time he will capitalize on it. He may even become a new guru because he was bold in his call. But how much does he really believe in what he is saying?

I trade technically meaning that I listen to those people for entertainment only and in doing so I can't help but wonder if people like Peter Schiff, Karl Denninger, Marc Faber and countless other really know ( or believe) in what they are talking about or are just capitalizing in a "bet" they did a while ago.

If the euro goes to 1.94, it will not be because of his Fibonacci extension.

I'm no Fibonacci expert, but I'm sure you can use the exact same chart to make a Fibonacci case for 0.94 or lower.

See Philip Tetlock's work which focuses precisely on these people in the business of prediction.

Good afternoon Papa Platypus

What is your timeframe for relatively short period of time? This year? I've got average yearly range for last 11 years for E/U at 2,211 pips. We've already done 2,010 pips. 1.50 doesn't seem to be out of the question. Of course this could be 2008 all over again except in the other direction and we could run for 3,700 pips and then have a huge spike down to take us back into average yearly range. Am I making sense here? LOL Of course we could overshoot the average yearly range like in 2009 and 2010 and end up somewhere near 1.55 before they decide to drop it.

Who knows? Getting a little overcooked methinks and with articles like this appearing almost weekly, we are probably getting near the end, but not until they suck everyone into believing it's going to go higher. Let's be like Jack though ... nimble and quick. Oh, and that beer, well it's past it's due date, so I've chucked it.

Hey girl! Whats up! Not seeing you in a long time

Relative short time for 1.94 is on the monthly charts, anything from around 2 years I would consider acceptable. But again I think we will go below parity before a high number like this happens.

I'm not a fundamentalist trader but in my view the FED and the ECB are trying to prop the euro as much as they can because the problems in Europe are still pretty much unfolded.

Here in America 70 to 80% of what could go wrong is already done and the rest is pretty much priced in already. My take is that they are trying to push the pair as high as they can so when it comes down it will not be catastrophic.

Sorry about the beer!! I managed to stay here in America while still working for them, my family hate the idea of living in Switzerland. Anyways I only drink alcohol free beer ( O'doul's) and usually people that drink real beer don't like it!!

Two years. Okay, well then, it is certainly possible based on average yearly range. It's not leaving a lot of room for any good corrections though. As to it's probability, hmmmmm, I'll leave that to the experts. I've learnt (the hard way) never to say never in this market But I'm a liking your fundamental view.

I'm not trading E/U much anyway. I'm still loving and nurturing my baby A/J which nearly whacked it's average yearly range (300 pips short) in a mere four weeks. Hit an important level if you feel like glancing at your weekly chart.

But, yeah, I'm still bangin' around the Fun Factory. I tend to spend most of my time in the music thread because that's what I generally do now. Listen to music and push a few buttons so it only makes sense to hang in a thread that is conducive to my trading. I also don't have to pretend to be intelligent in there ... lol

Alcohol free beer? Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaat? You lightweight .... lol