EURUSD

Hi All, New to the group. I tend to agree to 1.50 level as it acts as a magnet. After that we might see a correction.

Well said bro
Agree with you but it's a mess and i think comparing to how much time and stress and risk i take so i win and get my +++ or i better investment all this time and money and less stress on other business
Maybe I'm successful in this business at least think so "One account since i started while many below some and i made profit" but time change and more time and risk not meet my aim this days

1.50 is a target where the players will hit just to flush out stops.. there may be other reasons.. i believe it won't travel much past 5050 ish but who knows this is fx...

as a newbie ,i prefer to know your method to analysising .not the result .
thank you

America's reckless money-printing could put the world back into crisis

Last week, Ben Bernanke suggested that the US base interest rate will stay close to zero for an "extended period". It's been there since December 2008.


Why the power of the mighty Federal Reserve is finally on the wane

It is only right that central banks, having messed up so monumentally, are made more transparent and accountable.

dam junkies get u a live get a smoke and kitkot any way the bar is closed

eur is going to 10000 in 1999 so sell the dam thing

oh get some sox iy will open u suckx brain

The most profits I ever made in euro/usd was when I went long near 1.2700 because I was almost sure it will dive down from 1.2700 (It is correctly stated). I went long despite having a short bias initially to take a chance for few pips on longs as I could see plenty of pips on the shorts thereafter. But this thing went upto 1.3900 taking my longs all the way along it.

Ireland cuts 2011 GDP forecast

The government now sees 0.8% growth in 2011, down from 1.7%. Next year, they expect 2.5%, down from 3.2%.


EU inquiry into claims of bank collusion in derivatives trading

Barclays, HSBC and RBS among banks at centre of concerns over Europe's slow reform in the largely unregulated derivatives market

dont read





Lasting grief for the dollar from December through April has delivered consecutively weaker closes for the dollar’s value against a basket of its major trading partners. Growing risk appeal outside of the United States has turned to a mild concern that the world’s number one economy is possibly losing its head of steam at a time when the Federal Reserve now longer has use of relief in the form of its QE luxury-liners. The recovery in global growth has marked a similar rebound in inflation-bothersome commodity prices.
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U.S. Dollar – It’s hard to know whether or not the Royal Wedding present of a million dollars would be the best thing to offer Prince William and Kate Middleton. On current form and on most projections, the dollar is heading lower. But that consensus can often create the beginnings of the end to such fairytales. The problem facing the dollar is that the rebound in the economy looks to be tapering off just as the Fed’s open-market bond purchases are also coming to an end. The million-dollar question is whether the policy has created sustainable traction ahead. Already first-quarter growth indicated a pullback and rising energy prices can only crimp consumption, unless of course oil prices suddenly slip. Data released on Friday showed a dip in personal spending from an upwardly revised 0.9% in February to a gain of 0.6% in March. Later in the day the Chicago purchasing managers index is set to show amelioration in activity, while the University of Michigan consumer confidence index is also expected to slip. The dollar index fell to its weakest since July 2008 and currently stands at 72.93 for a decline on the session of 0.25%.
British pound – Britain is closed for the Royal Wedding celebrations but that didn’t stopthe pound from rising against 12 of its 16 most-commonly traded pairings. Against the dollar the pound is higher at $1.6655.
Euro – Investors continue to look through the sovereign debt woes that fail to lay down preferring to focus instead on growth at the heart of the Eurozone. With that growth comes the altogether different attitude from the ECB that ensures higher relative yield for the single currency compared to the dollar. On Thursday council-member Yves Mersch said that the central bank would continue to withdraw non-standard measures at an appropriate pace in light of the “incoming news,” which we’ll take to mean inflation. The euro has $1.5000 within easy reach as a result of domestic policy and the lackluster appeal of the dollar. Today the euro buys $1.4861.
Japanese yen –The Japanese yen surged in early New York trading against the dollar following comments from a Swiss central banker, which were unambiguously bullish for the franc. The yen and Swiss often move hand-in-hand on safe haven grounds and although that argument has been under review since the coordinated G7 round of intervention following Japan’s worst earthquake in a century, today the yen continued to play along as the dollar swooned. The yen recently traded against the dollar at ¥81.35.
Canadian dollar – The Canadian unit reversed an earlier gain versus the greenback following an unexpected decline in growth during February. Dealers were prepped for an unchanged monthly GDP report but sold the local dollar to $1.0478 U.S. cents after the event. The government said that manufacturing underperformed and as investors look into the report and think about the future they perhaps sense that strength in the exchange rate might be useful at restraining inflationary pressure but less useful when choking broader economic growth.
Aussie dollar – Treasury Chief Wayne Swan spoke on domestic radio on Friday and used the opportunity to perform some chest-beating to highlight the success of government policy. Mr. Swan claimed victory for the sound fiscal health of the country, growth in employment and an improving economy saying that together these events well-explained the rise in the exchange rate. The Aussie again made a fresh record-high touching $1.0964 at its session best. House price data released for March dipped by 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis while private sector credit maintained a 0.6% monthly pace of increase to grow at 3.6% for the year.

by Andrew Wilkinson »

It will ALL be so much different in 1999!

Keep the pipe burning, kill.

the same shoot

By Dean Popplewell

Price action has been subdued in both Asia and Europe with the Royal wedding dominating market coverage, at least until US data releases. This morning, Euro-zone inflation rose to a 30-month high for April (2.8% vs. 2.7%), further strengthening the case for Trichet and Co. to tighten monetary policy, despite the peripheries tackling severe debt problems.
The US$ is weaker in the O/N trading session. Currently, it is lower against 15 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘subdued’ session.
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The dollar did not need any more bad news, but it got it. Yesterday’s economic indicators point to dismal employment and slowing economic growth. GDP showed growth at only +1.8% in the first quarter, however, it’s backward looking data and right on market expectations. The weekly jobless claims (+429k) is more important and suggests further sluggishness in the jobs market.
Initial jobless claims increased by +25k, w/w, beating analysts expectations of a sub +400k psychological print. The four-week moving average, capable of smoothing out volatility, rose by +9.2k to +408.5k. It’s worth noting that this is the the first print above +400k since the beginning of February. A weaker jobs number tends to undermine consumer confidence and directly affect consumer spending. Digging deeper, continuing claims (reported on a week’s lag) fell by-68k to +3.64m. The net-effect seems to agree with Bernanke’s comment that ‘we are moving in the right direction even though that’s encouraging does not mean the labor market is in good shape’.
Fundamentally, the US economy hit the breaks in the first quarter as higher prices, especially gas and food, curtailed consumer spending, limiting seasonally adjusted GDP to print +1.8%. The modest increase marked a significant slowdown from the fourth quarter (+3.1%). Bernanke indicated this week that the first quarter slowdown would most likely be temporary. Digging deeper, consumer spending for the quarter rose at a +2.7% clip, down from the +4% print last quarter, with spending accounting for +70% of GDP. It seems that the Fed is relying on, to a certain extent, the equity wealth effect to encourage people to open their coffers. Various tax cuts are also allowing consumers to keep more of their pay packets. For the Fed’s sake, consumers need to save less and spend more. That’s difficult in this high energy and food price environment.
Finally, US pending home re-sales climbed +5.1% after a revised +0.7% increase the previous month. An improving job market, falling home prices and lower borrowing costs may help to attract more buyers over the coming months.
The USD is lower against the EUR +0.25%, GBP +0.32%, CHF +0.61% and JPY +0.10%. The commodity currencies are weaker this morning, CAD -0.10% and AUD -0.05%.
The loonie is little changed, trading close to its three-year high after Ben and Co. decided to keep its interest-rate target at record low levels and finish QE2 on schedule in June. From a commodity sensitive and higher yielding currency, the loonie looks attractive as a carry play versus its largest trading partner. In just under a year the currency has appreciated +12% against the dollar. The Canadian dollar, like most G20 currencies is being supported by a broadly softer greenback, with an accommodating Fed policy. The market can expect the currency to underperform outright and on the crosses as we head closer to the May 2nd general election on event risk. However, this morning Canadian GDP number may provide further support for a currency that investors continue to covet on dollar rallies (0.9513).
The AUD is heading for its biggest monthly gain this year, further supported by comments from their Treasurer Wayne Swan this morning, stating that the currency’s strength reflect the improving economy and higher commodity prices.
It will be currency’s sixth consecutive weekly advance outright as lower-than-estimated US growth increases speculation that the RBA will be raising interest rates before the Fed. Traders have added to their bets that policy makers will be hiking rates +25bps points over the next year.
Earlier this week, data showed that Aussie inflation rose +1.6%, q/q, far higher than the consensus forecast of +1.2%, pushing the year-on-year rate to +3.3% from +2.7% in the fourth quarter. It seems that flood related food price spikes and higher oil prices drove the headline. However, the underlying inflation was also high, rising +0.9%, q/q to +2.3% from +2.2%, y/y in the fourth-quarter.
Currently, the RBA seem comfortable with interest rates as highlighted in the released minutes earlier this month. The Governor viewed his policy setting as appropriate, saying they will ‘look through’ higher inflation and slower growth stemming from natural disasters. It’s expected that Governor Stevens will want to see more data that’s not so distorted by weather, which may take some time to come through, before moving on rates again.
Australian yields are still the highest in the G10 and do look attractive. The expected mix of trade surpluses and rising capital inflows should provide support for the currency on any pullbacks as the currency marches towards 1.10 outright (1.0919).
Crude is little changed in the O/N session ($112.60 -26c). The black-stuff briefly touched its 31-month high as the dollar weakened to its lowest level in three-years against its major trading partners yesterday and this despite a bearish weekly EIA report for the crude prices.
Weekly crude stocks rose +6.16m barrels to +363.1m last week. It was the biggest one-week advance since July 2010. The market was expecting a build of only +1.7m barrels. Crude imports rose +1.21m barrels to +9.23m. In contrast, gas inventories fell for the tenth consecutive week, -2.51m barrels to +205.59m, compared with expectations for a -1.1m drawdown. It’s worth noting that gas inventors fell in spite of domestic demand falling by -1.6% last month on a year over year basis. Finally, distillates (heating oil and diesel) dropped -1.81m barrels to +146.53m. Refinery utilization rose +0.2% to 82.7%. In reality, it looks like refiners have got to convert more of the oil into gas in the coming weeks.
The IEA said it maintains its 2011 global oil demand growth forecast but noted that the high oil prices are beginning to dent demand growth. OPEC have already stated earlier this month that they are unlikely to alter output targets when it meets in June as there is ‘no shortage of oil anywhere in the world’ even after supply curtailments in MENA. It’s all about the dollar’s inverse relationship with commodities.
Gold has resumed its upward trajectory and recorded new record highs on speculation that US policy makers will be slow to tighten their monetary policy, weakening the greenback and boosting the appeal of metals as an alternative asset class. Gold, as a non-yielding asset, has a higher opportunity cost when interest rates rise. The precious metal has become the currency of choice as the dollar continues to underperform against its G10 trading partners.
The metals bull-run is far from over with investors continuing to look to buy the commodity on dips. Any price pullbacks are viewed as favorable opportunities for investors to continue to diversify into safe-haven assets, especially metal being used as a store-of-value ($1,532 +$15.80c).
The Nikkei closed at 9,849 up+158. The DAX index in Europe was at 7,472 down-3; the FTSE (UK) currently is 6,069 up+2. The early call for the open of key US indices is lower. The US 10-year eased 4bp yesterday (3.31%) and is little changed in the O/N session.
Treasury prices rallied after weaker US growth and employment data yesterday. Now that the Fed has unanimously clarified extending its easing monetary policy stance is giving the FI support on pull backs.
The Treasury issued the last of this week's auctions yesterday, $29b 7-years. It was a very weak auction with a whopping +3.5bp tail. The notes drew a yield of 2.712%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.63, compared with an average of 2.84 for the previous 6-sales. Indirect bidders took 39.1%, while direct bidders took down 7.9% of the notes.
by MarketPulse FX »

Lol, give ya that one.

more bullsh

Crunch Time for Portugal and the Eurozone Just Weeks Away



By Scott Boyd

If you are looking for further evidence as to just how bleak the outlook is for Portugal, consider this – it costs more for Portugal to borrow for six months, than it does Germany for thirty years.
Consider also that the yield spread between Portugal’s debt and the benchmark German bunds continues to widen with each passing day and on Tuesday, the spread surpassed a whopping 636 basis points. This is the highest spread for Portuguese debt since the formation of the Eurozone region and the subsequent adoption of the shared euro currency.
As a result, Portugal’s two-year bond yield climbed to 11.74 percent, while the ten-year yield rose to 9.61 percent. This is a dramatic increase and as recently as of the end of March, the two-year yield was about two hundred basis points lower at 8.78 percent, while the ten-year yield was 8.41 percent.
Adding to the perplexity of the situation is Portugal’s latest revision to last year’s deficit. This latest amendment has once again revealed the actual deficit to be greater than originally reported and is now pegged at 9.1 percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product compared to the 8.6 percent figure announced previously.
All this is taking place against the backdrop of a fresh round of meetings in Lisbon where representatives from the European Central Bank, European Union, and the International Monetary Fund are attempting to hammer out a bail-out plan that would permit Portugal to meet its growing debt obligations. Time is becoming more of an issue, however, as Portugal has two key repayment dates looming on the horizon. The first of these is scheduled for June 15, when it is required to repay nearly five billion euros (US$7.3 billion), with a similar amount due in October.
Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates – who resigned last month after failing to win approval to cut government spending – will be replaced in elections scheduled for June. As one of his last acts as Prime Minister, he has called for a bailout plan to be in place by mid-May. While he has not said so explicitly, the implication is that without this emergency funding, Portugal will be unable to meet the June bond repayment date.

boring the last one dont read

At this moment, the euro is up for the ninth consecutive session versus the dollar. We'll leave out the record highs of the Australian dollar and Swiss franc for the moment (not to mention precious metals) to concentrate on the euro ... which is not exactly a region the U.S. should be faltering against.
But with the willful neglect of the dollar by The Bernank (who deflects all commentary on this subject to the US Treasury), and the ECB on a path of increased interest rates, the euro is winning the ugly duckling contest. And as you should know by now, the only trade in the market nowadays is the inverse dollar trade; when it sucks wind, you can buy anything.
This morning the euro region reported another uptick in inflation. I don't know the ins and outs of how the Europeans create their inflation figures as I do with the U.S. and U.K., but it seems laughable that a region with essentially one booming country (Germany) and three in states of default or rescue -- not to mention one with a 21%+ unemployment rate (Spain) -- is showing higher inflation than the U.S.
But since we're in the Matrix, let's eat our blue pills and play along. With the sole mandate of the ECB to control inflation, today's figure should point to further rate hikes, which benefits the euro in interest rate differentials ... and of course leads to further pressure on the dollar.
Via Reuters:

 

1. European inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in two and a half years and confidence in the economic outlook declined as surging energy prices threatened to undermine growth. Euro zone inflation rose further above the European Central Bank's target in April, increasing the chances of an interest rate rise in June, despite a weakening of economic sentiment and household demand. Inflation in the 17 countries using the euro rose to 2.8% year-on-year this month from 2.7% a month earlier, the highest level since October 2010, when it was 3.2%.

1. Consensus expectations had been for a flat reading compared to March ahead of next Thursday's European Central Bank meeting on interest rates. "I can imagine that some market participants will expect the rate increase by the European Central Bank at an earlier date. We expected June, the market is still expecting July. I guess the consensus will now move to June," said Piet Lammens, economist at KBC.

1. The ECB raised its main interest rate from record lows of 1.0 percent to 1.25 percent in April, concerned about the impact on consumer prices of rising costs of energy and food.

1. Euro zone consumer inflation expectations, which have been rising quickly since November 2010, edged marginally lower to 30.7 from 30.8.

by TraderMark »

what noobs cant laugh at a funny joke?

i must admit i was also short biased and lost pips when EU went higher... VIOLENTLY higher too... at the moment i don't see this reversing so my bias is long but the 80 pip drop and strange price fluctuations tell me we are in corrective mode... obvious close below 1.4550 and we re assess...

COT reports that we should still be long EU as people are currently longing USD... and being long also makes me mentally less stressed at present.

lets wait for the week to begin.. monday is a bank holiday here in the uk...

Not saying we will go higher or lower (because I am not sure of the direction). My longer term short positions hit sls twice this month. Now trading short term (50 to 100 pip positions) until make up for the lost pips and that will take 3 months. For this small pip-range, the only important elements I think are pa reading and MM.

The schedule:

Step 1: 40 nights worshiping satan and black magic rituals on euro
Step 2: 5 days of trading
Step 3: 40 nights worshiping satan and black magic rituals on usd
Step 4: Repeat step 2

MM = Magic Management

With lots of confusion , puzzles , manipulation & celebrety the supper mofu price action actually failed by a few pips to close below 4800 & already broken the top by close price . next expecting it happen to the point & 3 drives up active there , new week & new tempoo of great revolution . going for worry free sleep & see the next open next night.
fontu

read with me thanks to Bootstrap

Why Screen Time Is Important

Since everyone keeps telling you that screen time is important, there has to be something to it. But nobody is telling you what you should be looking for. What is it going to teach you? There has to be something that those who do this for a living see that you don’t.

Well there is. And just like the magician that exposed the secrets to magic tricks on national TV, I am going to tell you what we see.

But before I do remember one thing. Take everything you read in a forum or book, or hear from a guru or in a seminar with a grain of salt. Question everything. Only when you prove it to yourself, does it become the rule.

What I am about to share can be found on thousands of sites and in countless books. If you have done any research at all, you have come across Dr. Elder’s triple screen, or some permutation of it. You understand the principles behind using multiple frames of reference. What has most likely not been explained to you is why it works or how to apply it correctly. In most cases you are only given a single example.

Single example you say? Yes, when most first stumble across using multiple time frames, they follow the rules of:

Use the upper time frame to identify the trend, the middle time frame for the set-up, and the lowest time frame to enter.

If by chance you are not familiar with the triple screen just goggle “triple screen +elder”.

Trading instruments exhibt three different types of market action in any given frame of reference. You use multiple frames of reference (i.e. Time or ticks) to identify the current market environment. These markets are: Trending, Trading, and Volatile.

Why screen time is so important is that all instruments do not exhibit the characteristics of Trending in the upper time frame, Trading in the middle, and Volatile in the lower at all times. They can be in any one of the following combinations at any given time:

Trending/Trading/Volatile
Trending/Volatile/Trading
Trading/Volatile/Trending
Trading/Trending/Volatile
Volatile/Trending/Trading
Volatile/Trading/Trending

Or any one of 84 possible market combinations if you consider Volatile/Volatile/Volatile.

Like the major pairs in Forex, the combinations I listed are what I consider the major market combinations.

The elusive secret that you are looking for, and what screen time teaches you, is to identify which market combination you are in and then how to trade what you see. Or better yet, when to stay on the sidelines. Each combination requires a different strategy, and some may not be tradeable at all. If you are trading across a broad range of instruments, you only need to master one. The fewer instruments you trade, the more market combinations you may have to learn. But you have to learn them one at a time and only add the next one once the first is mastered.

But you ask what about Trending/Trending/Trading? Or how about Volatile/Volatile/Volatile? Or if I use Weekly/Daily/Hourly I get Trending/Trading/Volatile but if I use Daily/Hourly/Min I get Trading/Volatile/Trending.

One step at a time grasshopper. One step at a time. As I mentioned there are 84 possible combinations. Multiply this across thousands of instruments and countless frames of reference, and I hope you get the picture. You do not have to learn them all.

You only have to learn the few that fit you, your chosen instrument and frames of reference. Find the market combinations that are most prevalent and learn to trade only those. This is why it takes screen time to learn to do this, and why each trader is different. It is also why three traders in the same instrument will be doing something different. Trader A will scalp, trader B will be a buyer, and trader C will be seller, and they all make money.

They are using different frames of reference and therefore see a different market