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  • #21
  • Apr 21, 2011 1:10am Apr 21, 2011 1:10am
Quoting lovejoy80
I prefered to wait a while and took this one instead...
Initial target wasn't hit so BE+1 result.
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  • #22
  • Apr 21, 2011 9:05am Apr 21, 2011 9:05am
Hi, Back after a break from trading. This looked a good setup to me but looks to be in trouble right now. I have a 25 pip stop entry at 4550. I noticed there was news so maybe this should have put me off. Anyway looking forward to joining the group next week when i'm ready for more dedication.
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  • #23
  • Apr 27, 2011 4:38am Apr 27, 2011 4:38am
I spotted these trades this week, and reluctently did not take them. I was wondering if LoveJoy or any of you other guys took these touch trades that appeared to work out well. Here are the trades, in order of highest quality to less quality. Did you take any of these trades? Thoughts on them? Here they are...

#1) GBPCHF short from 1.4500. First touch was later in the day on 4/26/2011. I passed due to the time of day. Stupid, stupid, stupid of me. Yea, the trade didn't rocket off due to the time of day, but eventually the trade did rocket off the next trading day. 50% Fib retracement, great daily support broken and retraced to. Stupid, stupid, stupid on my part.

#2) EURUSD long from 1.4500, first touch after break through was on 4/26/2011. I didn't take this one due to the price hanging close to 1.4500 for a few days in a row (looked like momentum was dying) and this is probably over analyzing on my part. Also the 1.4500 was not at the 50% or 61.8% Fib. It was at the 32% fib, which leads me to also this question. Do you guys also use the 32% Fib retracement level, or do you ignore it?

#3) GBPUSD long from 1.6430, first touch after break through was on 4/26/2011. Not the best level, but it still looks good in hindsight. This again is closer to the 38.2% Fib retrace level.

I am just wonder if you guys took these trades and your thoughts on the 38.2% Fib retracement level.
  • #24
  • Apr 27, 2011 5:00am Apr 27, 2011 5:00am
Quote
#1) GBPCHF short from 1.4500. First touch was later in the day on 4/26/2011. I passed due to the time of day. Stupid, stupid, stupid of me. Yea, the trade didn't rocket off due to the time of day, but eventually the trade did rocket off the next trading day. 50% Fib retracement, great daily support broken and retraced to. Stupid, stupid, stupid on my part.

I'd identified this area, RN, daily PPZ with fib confluence of a pretty small swing...trade setup in the direction of the higher TF trend...it's not what I would class a no brainer setup, but it's one of those where as the trend is strong and it's a daily PPZ the small swing for the fib confluence bears less importance that it would normally for me.

Time of day is important to me too...I generally want hard, fast reactions at clear confluenced areas and not for price to be hanging around which is more likely to happen at a time of day when liquidity is low as momentum will also be likely be low too, but I also weigh up the circumstances of each setup too.

ECHF and UCHF had setups too yesterday.

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#2) EURUSD long from 1.4500, first touch after break through was on 4/26/2011. I didn't take this one due to the price hanging close to 1.4500 for a few days in a row (looked like momentum was dying) and this is probably over analyzing on my part. Also the 1.4500 was not at the 50% or 61.8% Fib. It was at the 32% fib, which leads me to also this question. Do you guys also use the 32% Fib retracement level, or do you ignore it?

Personally I only use 50% an 61% fib levels. This was a clear daily PPZ and obviously EU is in a strong uptrend so on the balance of probabilities in the abscence of any news and with risk appetite increasing as measured by stocks, even in the abscence of any other technical confluence you could be pretty confidence EU should react and bounce away from this level. If I didn't want to take a pure touch I'd be looking for PA - 30min pin like BUOB was a clear sign.

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#3) GBPUSD long from 1.6430, first touch after break through was on 4/26/2011. Not the best level, but it still looks good in hindsight. This again is closer to the 38.2% Fib retrace level.

Another one where this maybe isn't enough technical confluence at times to take a pure touch for some, but again this is a clear daily PPZ and it's 1st time back to this area and in the direction of the underlying trend and with risk appetite increasing like I mentioned earlier there is clearly a higher chance of a bounce from here.
  • #25
  • Apr 27, 2011 10:57am Apr 27, 2011 10:57am
Thank you so much LJ! I have done lots of pyschological work lately. I am such an uptight person, being patient or picky will never be my problem and it never was. Letting loose and actually trading is my problem. And I am working to over come it. The fact I was 3 for 3 on spotting set-ups you agreed were good (well, at least one was good for a touch trade) gives me more confidence.

I realize I will have nothing in my life if I can't get this trading thing down. I hate everything about my life and the only escape is money, aka, trading. And I turn 33 in 2 months, so I better get my a$$ in gear.

Thank you for taking the time, I greatly appreciate it.

T.J.
  • #26
  • Apr 28, 2011 6:31am Apr 28, 2011 6:31am
Quoting unlv_tj
Thank you so much LJ!...
Getting a happy medium between being disciplined and picky to trading 'freely' and with confidence is not always easy to achieve. Trying to keep your trade setup analysis as mechanical as possible might help with that so you are removing the doubts, the fear etc from your mind and just trading what your plan tells you to trade.
  • #27
  • Apr 28, 2011 9:39am Apr 28, 2011 9:39am
Quoting lovejoy80
Getting a happy medium between being disciplined and picky to trading 'freely' and with confidence is not always easy to achieve. Trying to keep your trade setup analysis as mechanical as possible might help with that so you are removing the doubts, the fear etc from your mind and just trading what your plan tells you to trade.
Yes, you are so correct, again thank you so much.

I have studied General Patton a little. And I think of him and attack, attack, attack. I play basketball, and just because I miss one shot doesn't mean I let it bother me. It doesn't matter how good I get at trading, I will have losses, and that is okay. The only thing that matters is that I follow my plan.

I actually got long on the GBPUSD and the GBPJPY after yesterdays Bullish Outside bars. I maybe late to the party with both of these trades, and I may have bought at the top. But it doesn't matter. I liked both set-ups and I would take them again.

Granted, I should have been in the GBPUSD on a touch trade earlier in the week and already be in profit. But I can't go back in time, but I did see two daily set-ups that I liked with defined TP areas.

I will wait and see how they go. So far they are just chopping around where I got in.
  • #28
  • Apr 28, 2011 9:42am Apr 28, 2011 9:42am
Quoting unlv_tj
Yes, you are so correct, again thank you so much.

I have studied General Patton a little....
I was eyeing up GJ earlier on the same basis but @ 135.35, but winding down for another long weekend now .

This touch trade was a text book intraday setup earlier....Clear PPZ, 1st time back and 50% fib confluence plus in the direction of the higher TF trend.
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  • #29
  • Apr 28, 2011 2:23pm Apr 28, 2011 2:23pm
Yea, I was hoping for a stronger pop in the GBP on today (Thursday) because I know there is often profit taking on Fridays, lots of chop and slop, and then the weekend. Got a strong pop during the JPY hours, but then it fizzled and retraced through out the day.

Well, I am in the trades now, I like the set-ups, so I am just sticking with them for now. I plan to hold them over the weekend, rather than just taking a small loss (if that is how they end up tomorrow).

Great trade on the USDCAD, great work! This is one of those trades I just flat out did not see, and need more practice/chart time to pick them out. I just saw the USDCAD as chopping around .95 with no clear direction and maybe rounding off, and here you make money. I still have much to learn.
  • #30
  • Apr 30, 2011 7:29am Apr 30, 2011 7:29am
Quoting unlv_tj
Yea, I was hoping for a stronger pop in the GBP on today (Thursday) because I know there is often profit taking on Fridays, lots of chop and slop, and then the weekend....
There is always a point for me on a PA trade where if price goes beyond it has a much higher chance of not working out and this is where I typically take a loss. Thus on a daily PA setup I rarely take full losses for this very reason.

The GJ daily BUOB is a good example of this. It's a good PA setup for me but those bar highs to the left stopped me taking the break of the bar itself and also the fact that JPY has been pretty strong recently which is surprising given the fact equities are continuing to rise at a fast pace and also GBP has been pretty weak compared to the other majors, thus this didn't give me much confidence that GJ was just gonna soar up from the break of the BUOB.

But back to the bar itself, as I said there is normally an area you can identify on the larger TF PA setups where, if price moves beyond it there is a actually a much higher chance that price will continue, thus causing a full loss than there is that price will bounce up in your desired direction and for me on GJ it is the clear daily PPZ @ 135.00-135.30. Thus for me if price moves below this area I will be taking a loss on this setup as IMO price has a much higher probability of continuing down than it has of breaking up.

Now of course the true test would be whether the daily close is below this area as until it does it could still be a false 'breakout' below the PPZ, but of course if I wait for the daily close price could have moved far below the PPZ, thus I just trust my judgement that on the balance of probabilities from my past experience of watching price action over and over again that on average if I take a loss when price moved below the 135.00 area this will (on average) save me from a full 1R loss.

I think it's important to be able to analyse your trades objectively without emotional bias to determine whether the reason(s) you entered the trade still exist or whether areas have been breached or whether price is moving in such a way that means the reasoning is no longer valid and a loss should be taken. I know you are not doing this (you are trading the PA setup as you see it in a mechanical way, SL below the bar low it either gets hit or it hits your TP) but I've seen so many traders in the past (and this is a typical 'herd' mentality) just letting losers run even though the reasoning they used to enter the trade no longer exists and they are 'hoping' that because of the nature of the forex market price will come back before they get a margin call. The typical 'herd' mentality is let the losers run and cut the winners short' - fear of taking a loss and greed of a trade in the money is the generalisation that causes this and why many don't succeed in making a living out of trading, you only have to look at Oanda's or Myfxbook's order book (not sure I'm allowed to post links) to see how the herd trade...and it's not difficult to assess why most aren't successful in this business.
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  • #31
  • Apr 30, 2011 11:41am Apr 30, 2011 11:41am
Mark, damn, thank you so much. I owe you so much. It isn't just discussing the trade set-ups, it is the thought process behind it and the pyschology behind it.

To follow up...

#1) This was a good daily set-up to you, but you did not play it traditionally on the break due to the daily highs to the left (daily highs from 4-13 to 4-15). Were you expecting the BUOB to retrace first and then get in on the trade due to the bar highs to the left, or did you decide to just completely skip this trade retrace or not?

#2) Yes, I agree on the 135 to 135.3 level as a very important PPZ. Though my stop loss is below this, mainly due to some times eratic moves in the GBPJPY, if the pair can't bounce off this area I would agree I need to get out. I really expected the 135.8 level to hold better, and bought a small bit more at this level due to the retrace (part of my original plan if it retraced). I have stayed in this trade since the low is still only at 135.17. I am hoping that Friday was just profit taking and this pair will resume, but there is no room for hope in trading. And in doing this, I fall into the herd mentality.

#3) So what can I do now. My plan is to wait and see how the pair opens up Sunday. At the same time I am going to tighten up my stop loss to 134.7. This will prevent a full 1R loss and at the same time hide my stop loss behind the PPZ at 135 to 135.3.

I understand what you are saying and I will read your post over and over, because I think there is a lot there for my brain to soak in, especially the lines about how the herd reacts and thus loses.
  • #32
  • May 1, 2011 6:58am May 1, 2011 6:58am
Quote
#1) This was a good daily set-up to you, but you did not play it traditionally on the break due to the daily highs to the left (daily highs from 4-13 to 4-15). Were you expecting the BUOB to retrace first and then get in on the trade due to the bar highs to the left, or did you decide to just completely skip this trade retrace or not?

Yes it was a good location for the PA and a good size bar. I didn't like those bar highs to the left and because how strong JPY has been recently (thus the JPY pairs have been pretty choppy and if anything the most recent trend is down) I wasn't overly optimistic that GJ would soar above those bar highs to the left and playing it as a straight bar break up to those highs was just not worth the risk for me i.e. I did expect a reaction at the 137 bar highs area plus it was a RN too....the 4HR chart below shows this area more clearly.

I didn't have a GU daily BUOB on my feed, but if I had then I would have taken then instead of GJ...UJ is in a strong clear current downtrend thus if you had BUOB's on both GU and GJ it's pretty clear given the current USD/JPY trend which one out of GU and GJ had a higher chance of going up further and quicker.



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#2) Yes, I agree on the 135 to 135.3 level as a very important PPZ....

135.80-136.00 was a support area where price could have bounced from and indeed price did stall there, but for me there is a better PPZ as it's a very clear daily PPZ with 4HR fib confluence @ the 135.00-135.30 area which is the touch trade area I was interested in.

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#3) So what can I do now. My plan is to wait and see how the pair opens up Sunday. At the same time I am going to tighten up my stop loss to 134.7. This will prevent a full 1R loss and at the same time hide my stop loss behind the PPZ at 135 to 135.3.

That's how I would play it too ... for me as explained previously if price breaks below that PPZ then there is a much higher chance that price will continue down below the daily BUOB low than bounce back up and form a winner, so it's re-evaluating the trade as price moves to and beyond certain areas which represent a good sign of where price is heading if broken etc.
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  • #33
  • May 1, 2011 12:43pm May 1, 2011 12:43pm
Mark, again thank you so much. I learn so much from your posts, it is remarkable how logical you make it all. And the fact I seem to be seeing some of the same things as you, and thinking some of the same things as you, brings me great confidence.

Learning to trade is about my only reason for being right now. I can't stand my full time job, I work weekends at a bar to make more cash so I can trade full time as soon as I have the skills. So I greatly appreciate this.

I will study over this for a few hours today, thank you again.

T.J.
  • #34
  • May 2, 2011 5:43am May 2, 2011 5:43am
Quoting lovejoy80
Yes it was a good location for the PA and a good size bar. I didn't like those bar highs to the left and because how strong JPY has been recently (thus the JPY pairs have been pretty choppy and if anything the most recent trend is down) I wasn't overly optimistic that GJ would soar above those bar highs to the left and playing it as a straight bar break up to those highs was just not worth the risk for me i.e. I did expect a reaction at the 137 bar highs area plus it was a RN too....the 4HR chart below shows this area more clearly.

I didn't have...
Now I'm at BE+1 on my GJ trade and also in a simlar position on a EJ touch trade too.
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  • #35
  • May 2, 2011 4:56pm May 2, 2011 4:56pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Now I'm at BE+1 on my GJ trade and also in a simlar position on a EJ touch trade too.
Stopped out @ BE+1 on GJ trade and took profit on EJ when it became clear that the yen pairs were gonna drop for a net +2.3% win.

Wasn't around to catch nice GCHF touch trade though.
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  • #36
  • May 2, 2011 5:55pm May 2, 2011 5:55pm
Wow Mark, thank you. I still over look so much, and have much studying to do tonight.
  • #37
  • May 3, 2011 5:41am May 3, 2011 5:41am
Two examples of how easy it can be to make some very material gains using the touch trade methods I implement:

1. GCHF - daily PPZ + RN + 1st time back + fib confluence and in the direction of the current strong trend - trade setup is over 225pips up now and about 6.5R

2. EG - daily PPZ + TL + double fib confluence in the direction of the current trend - trade setup is over 100 pips up now and about 3.3R

So virtually 10% gain if risked 1% on each setup ... there are very few trading methods which regularly give the potential for such material account gains whilst also providing a high win rate too (my win rate is consistently >80%).
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  • #38
  • May 3, 2011 9:55am May 3, 2011 9:55am
Mark, again thank you. I save your attachments and study them at night. I still don't see the PPZ nearly well enough, and not in advance enough. Still lots of work to do. Though in hindsight your trades are easy to see.

I do have a few questions about these trades...

#1) The occured while I was asleep here in KC, MO, USA. And that happens often, even if I get up at 3:45 AM, often the big moves happen before then. I believe I could just set my by orders in these areas and go to sleep self assured that either my 1st TP would be hit and I would be at BE or my SL would save me. Do you believe this is possible? (Not looking for you to approve it, just wondering if it is even possible to be successful this way)

#2) Where did you set your stop loss on these trades? Was it at a set predetermined amount (30 pips, 45 pips, etc.)? If so, was this based on the average daily range? If your stop loss was a logical placement below a S/L area, could you give that now in hindsight to see what else I missed?

Again, I greatly appreciate your help here. I for once believe I may have a chance to have a decent life again. Maybe not, but just having that hope is good enough.
  • #39
  • May 3, 2011 5:44pm May 3, 2011 5:44pm
[quote]
Quoting unlv_tj
Mark, again thank you. I save your attachments and study them at night. I still don't see the PPZ nearly well enough, and not in advance enough. Still lots of work to do. Though in hindsight your trades are easy to see.
Preparation is a major part of being able to spot the good areas for touch trades and this means having your daily, weekly etc PPZ's clearly marked out in advance...it's then just a case of waiting for price to hit these areas and either finding enough confluence to take a touch trade or wait for some PA as the confirmation sign etc.



Quote
#1) The occured while I was asleep here in KC, MO, USA. And that happens often, even if I get up at 3:45 AM, often the big moves happen before then. I believe I could just set my by orders in these areas and go to sleep self assured that either my 1st TP would be hit and I would be at BE or my SL would save me. Do you believe this is possible? (Not looking for you to approve it, just wondering if it is even possible to be successful this way)
Personally I would try it out on demo first...use a trade manager EA to assist with the trade management i.e. move to BE @ x, take profit @ y etc. It might work out if you are picky enough and pick the right areas...just be careful to know when there is some red flag news that could cause volatility potentially when price is near a trade setup area as you might not want to be taking a trade right before news for example as the increased volatility could cause whipsaws and slippage plus increased spreads etc. But if you are careful to avoid these situations then I would definitely try it out...you might even find cos you are removing yourself from the trade management decisions it works out well.

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#2) Where did you set your stop loss on these trades? Was it at a set predetermined amount (30 pips, 45 pips, etc.)? If so, was this based on the average daily range? If your stop loss was a logical placement below a S/L area, could you give that now in hindsight to see what else I missed?
I don't use indicators like ATR's etc for SL placement. I either base my SL on an S/R area or a previuos bar wick e.g. I'm looking for the maximum wick where price has breached an area in the past where this area has held as (for example) support and my SL would be below this area most of the time.

If there is no obvious area to pace my SL I base it on the volatility of the pair in question and where price IMO will have to go to invalidate my initial entry reason for the trade.

With this in mind why don't you tell me where you would have placed your SL on the EG an GCHF setup above.
  • #40
  • May 3, 2011 7:27pm May 3, 2011 7:27pm
Mark, thank you.

On the EURGBP I would have set my SL at .8835. .8840 - .8850 looks like a great PPZ, so I would set my stop loss just below this.

On the GBPCHF I would have set my SL at 1.4525 a full 25 pips above the 1.4500 round number. I have noticed that often the 20 pips above/below a round number on the majors seem to hold well.
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