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  • #430,101
  • Apr 27, 2011 5:24pm Apr 27, 2011 5:24pm
Quoting frevd
You're right, have to be much more serious with it, it's not a game finally.

Would you mind describing your approach to risk management? like what percentage do you risk on how many positions per trade with which leverage?

My risk management was extremely structured when I started this having come from equities.

Now it is very fluid and the biggest factor is scaling into winners to the point that the per pip dollar amount is just becoming silly using the market's money for the whole darn thing.

My biggest turning point was not risk management but being able to close my losers with minimum loss and have my winners run multiples of that.

So it all depends on your ability for picking entries and exits that should drive your money management.

Today on the press conference I posted what I was doing and I went in extremely heavy being so confident that there was zero risk of it going against me. That's when fundie/news trading comes in extremely handy, when the fundies and techs are pulling in the same direction, bet the farm, sell the mistress and enslave the kids.
  • #430,102
  • Apr 27, 2011 5:26pm Apr 27, 2011 5:26pm
Quoting frevd
Hahaa, no worries, I appreciate it.
Guess it's even more difficult to withstand that since I'm used to making indicators. But he is damn right, that's of no use, it disconnects you. The goal is to reduce information on screen and have it at hand intuitively instead.

That's it, you are a manual trader so you need to make decisions in your brain, not based on Indy's. I enter trades at times just on intuition because my brain has calculated so quickly what is going on based on the stored database of PA, that I at times look at the screen and see a trade going that I can't recall I made consiously. Those are the best ones and I will always add to those without hesitation.

Think about driving, do you actively have to think about it while you are doing it, do you need an Indy to tell you when to brake or when to accelerate, do you need an Indy to turn left or right? Do you need an Indy to give you an arrow in order to stop at a red light?

Try to drive while actively making decisions while doing it, you won't get out of your street.
  • #430,103
  • Apr 27, 2011 5:26pm Apr 27, 2011 5:26pm
Do these orange lines have anything to do with your 4790?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20.png Size: 79 KB





Quoting cloggie
NOOOOOOOOOOOOO, I want him to find them so he knows what they mean in the bigger picture.

I pick my levels to the pip over and over again, just because I know what I am looking for. No Indy in the world can match me for accuracy. Look at the range numbers today, all just perfect. Look at 4790, no Indy would have come up with that one.


Look at the PA now, just as I foretold hours ago.
  • #430,104
  • Apr 27, 2011 5:26pm Apr 27, 2011 5:26pm
Quoting cloggie
What does a magnet do?
Yeah, it absorbs the PA. I looked back the charts and it did range dead til it breakout away from the 1700 gmt open. No?
Make it rain baby
  • #430,105
  • Apr 27, 2011 5:26pm Apr 27, 2011 5:26pm
Quoting cloggie
My risk management was extremely structured when I started this having come from equities.

Now it is very fluid and the biggest factor is scaling into winners to the point that the per pip dollar amount is just becoming silly using the market's money for the whole darn thing.

My biggest turning point was not risk management but being able to close my losers with minimum loss and have my winners run multiples of that.

So it all depends on your ability for picking entries and exits that should drive your money management.

Today on the press...
no farm, no mistress, no kids.
  • #430,106
  • Apr 27, 2011 5:29pm Apr 27, 2011 5:29pm
Quoting FxPlayboy
Yeah, it absorbs the PA. I looked back the charts and it did range dead til it breakout away from the 1700 gmt open. No?

Correct, and when the 000GMT roll is far away from the 1700 roll, what happens then in the majority of cases?
  • #430,107
  • Apr 27, 2011 5:29pm Apr 27, 2011 5:29pm
Quoting frevd
no farm, no mistress, no kids.


You got the point though, right?
  • #430,108
  • Apr 27, 2011 5:30pm Apr 27, 2011 5:30pm
Quoting needpips
Do these orange lines have anything to do with your 4790?

No.


Next hint: history repeats itself, always, we never learn from history and we will always go back to the same thing out of habit.
  • #430,109
  • Apr 27, 2011 5:31pm Apr 27, 2011 5:31pm
Quoting cloggie
My risk management was extremely structured when I started this having come from equities.

Now it is very fluid and the biggest factor is scaling into winners to the point that the per pip dollar amount is just becoming silly using the market's money for the whole darn thing.

My biggest turning point was not risk management but being able to close my losers with minimum loss and have my winners run multiples of that.

So it all depends on your ability for picking entries and exits that should drive your money management.

Today on the press conference...
Agree completely with learning to cut your losers here... something I have just recently figured out.

At first I had it ingrained into my head, watching my stops getting hit left and right.

Then I figured out it was much better to not use stops, but instead close out the trade when a price bar closes below a certain level (confirmed I was incorrect).

Then I developed a method that has been scoring me around a 89-91% accuracy... and from that, while it was awesome, it was also a disaster in disguise. I started shifting my mentality to I am never wrong... and boy has the market proved me other wise.

That accuracy is no good if one trade is completely wiping out the other 10.

So once this all came to a final resting place, once again learning to take a loss when I was wrong, has been the last piece of the puzzle.

It goes without saying, the sooner you learn to take your losses, the sooner you will be profitable.

A right of passage that so many of us have to go down... hopefully some can learn from us who just couldn't quite get our mind right.

Now a days... taking a loss is just part of it, and I expect it. No biggie, move on to the next.
  • #430,110
  • Apr 27, 2011 5:32pm Apr 27, 2011 5:32pm
Quoting cloggie
You got the point though, right?
Yeah, thank you for sharing. Will take a while though till I reach that level of confidence, I'm going for not risking more than 0.5% of the account right now.
  • #430,111
  • Apr 27, 2011 5:33pm Apr 27, 2011 5:33pm
Quoting Venice

Now a days... taking a loss is just part of it, and I expect it. No biggie, move on to the next.

Taking a loss quickly just means you know you are going to get a better price, you'll sweep up that losing trade on the way past next time, no price level is a virgin, we have seen it all before.
  • #430,112
  • Apr 27, 2011 5:34pm Apr 27, 2011 5:34pm
Quoting frevd
Yeah, thank you for sharing. Will take a while though till I reach that level of confidence, I'm going for not risking more than 0.5% of the account right now.

IF your r/r ratio is over 60%, as it should be 1% is fine. Once you know how to read PA and get out for peanuts, then you can up the risk till your account grows.

Start at 10k, plan on losing it and 2% a trade for your winners and less then 0.2% for your losers will get that to 100k in absolute no time and 250-500k ina year.
  • #430,113
  • Apr 27, 2011 5:34pm Apr 27, 2011 5:34pm
Quoting Venice
Agree completely with learning to cut your losers here... something I have just recently figured out.

At first I had it ingrained into my head, watching my stops getting hit left and right.

Then I figured out it was much better to not use stops, but instead close out the trade when a price bar closes below a certain level (confirmed I was incorrect).

Then I developed a method that has been scoring me around a 89-91% accuracy... and from that, while it was awesome, it was also a disaster in disguise. I started shifting my mentality to I...

Sounds familiar to me.
I've been through that already, though I shouldn't have paused for 2 years, just trying to remember all of that experience.
Right now I'm having the problem of closing losers too early..
  • #430,114
  • Apr 27, 2011 5:36pm Apr 27, 2011 5:36pm
Quoting frevd
Sounds familiar to me.
I've been through that already, though I shouldn't have paused for 2 years, just trying to remember all of that experience.
Right now I'm having the problem of closing losers too early..
Mer? Isn't this a good thing? I want them closed ASAP. lol
  • #430,115
  • Apr 27, 2011 5:36pm Apr 27, 2011 5:36pm
Quoting cloggie
Correct, and when the 000GMT roll is far away from the 1700 roll, what happens then in the majority of cases?
Err... the next day will trend?

As attached, Is this the 4790 you mentioned all the way from 19 aug 2008?
4632 is also today's low.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Hourly_snapshot.png Size: 22 KB
Make it rain baby
  • #430,116
  • Apr 27, 2011 5:36pm Apr 27, 2011 5:36pm
Quoting cloggie
Taking a loss quickly just means you know you are going to get a better price, you'll sweep up that losing trade on the way past next time, no price level is a virgin, we have seen it all before.
Dammit cloggie...you're giving it ALL away today!

More muppets...less wine for you!

I kid, I kid. Some gems in here. Good stuff, mate.
  • #430,117
  • Apr 27, 2011 5:36pm Apr 27, 2011 5:36pm
Quoting frevd
Right now I'm having the problem of closing losers too early..

If-then-if, if-then-if. Find the next level to cross, move your stops to the one below, wait for the next one to cross, move your stops and keep doing that, before you know it you are consistently booking 40-60 pip trades as those correspond to the chunks I was alluding to earlier.
  • #430,118
  • Apr 27, 2011 5:36pm Apr 27, 2011 5:36pm
Quoting cloggie
IF your r/r ratio is over 60%, as it should be 1% is fine. Once you know how to read PA and get out for peanuts, then you can up the risk till your account grows.

Start at 10k, plan on losing it and 2% a trade for your winners and less then 0.2% for your losers will get that to 100k in absolute no time and 250-500k ina year.
I guess I'm lacking the final strategy and thus confidence.
Your earlier posts may help here.
  • #430,119
  • Apr 27, 2011 5:37pm Apr 27, 2011 5:37pm
Quoting FxPlayboy
Err... the next day will trend?

As attached, Is this the 4790 you mentioned all the way from 19 aug 2008?
4632 is also today's low.

Last hint, also look at November last year.
  • #430,120
  • Apr 27, 2011 5:37pm Apr 27, 2011 5:37pm
Quoting kill56
whats up bro
Hi Kill,

how are things going?

Have been a little busy lately. Only time for scalps here and there. But that is anyway better for my nerves LOL
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