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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #23,921
  • Apr 20, 2011 10:12pm Apr 20, 2011 10:12pm
Quoting tankokjian
u mean u dont trade USDJPY at all or only this time ?
I'd rather buy the dips than sell from here. If we can get to 81.30 - 81.10, I'll be a keen buyer if the pa looks good. Selling from here though is a bit too risky for me.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,922
  • Apr 20, 2011 10:25pm Apr 20, 2011 10:25pm
good trade, maybe i should learn from you to be more shrewd in trading. short looks promising for me , everyones eyeing for the 81 mark , i couldnt stand by and watch the pips go by

http://i1187.photobucket.com/albums/z400/hyip1/bvcp.gif .

Quoting realjumper
I'd rather buy the dips than sell from here. If we can get to 81.30 - 81.10, I'll be a keen buyer if the pa looks good. Selling from here though is a bit too risky for me.
  • #23,923
  • Apr 20, 2011 10:33pm Apr 20, 2011 10:33pm
Quoting tankokjian
good trade, maybe i should learn from you to be more shrewd in trading. short looks promising for me , everyones eyeing for the 81 mark , i couldnt stand by and watch the pips go by.
Just as a 'rule of thumb'.....take a look at where the PA is at Asian open, with regard to the Daily Pivot. More often than not, if the PA is above the pivot, it will continue in that direction.....same if it's under the DP.

Your short might work out ok, but you're probably a bit late getting into it. The time would have been right at Asian open. You could have your SL at BE by now, removing all risk.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,924
  • Apr 20, 2011 11:04pm Apr 20, 2011 11:04pm
Quoting tankokjian
u mean 85.5 and 76.4 ? i feel fibo works better in lower timeframe, maybe i am wrong.
My chart is almost exactly .82...

Plus several DailyFX analysts have it at .82 too:



Jamie Saettele - Continue to look lower towards initial support at 8200 (38.2% Fibonacci and former resistance). I expect that the decline will result in formation of a wave ii low ahead of 7637 before a much larger advance in a 3rd or C wave. 8300 and 8350 are short term resistance areas.
Support/Resistance Index (M,W,D) – 0, (5), (4)



Ilya Spivak - USDJPY put in a Doji at support just above the 82.00 figure marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the mid-March spike low set in the wake of the Tohoku earthquake. A shallow rebound has begun, with a daily close above 82.71 would confirm the completion of a bullish Morning Doji Star, opening the door to enter long initially targeting the April 6 high at 85.51.
  • #23,925
  • Apr 20, 2011 11:54pm Apr 20, 2011 11:54pm
ok, thanks for your guidance .

is this the pivot point u are talking about? because im using mt4 to get the high low , the results vary with different mt4 i am using. where can i get the data high/low and close for the Asia Open please help. thanks.

http://i1187.photobucket.com/albums/z400/hyip1/SSS.jpg




Quoting realjumper
Just as a 'rule of thumb'.....take a look at where the PA is at Asian open, with regard to the Daily Pivot. More often than not, if the PA is above the pivot, it will continue in that direction.....same if it's under the DP.

Your short might work out ok, but you're probably a bit late getting into it. The time would have been right at Asian open. You could have your SL at BE by now, removing all risk.
  • #23,926
  • Apr 21, 2011 12:56am Apr 21, 2011 12:56am
Quoting tankokjian
ok, thanks for your guidance .

is this the pivot point u are talking about? because im using mt4 to get the high low , the results vary with different mt4 i am using. where can i get the data high/low and close for the Asia Open please help. thanks.
Here is the indi I use. You will find that the pivots vary slightly between brokers, but if you use a USA based broker, your pivot should be close. The indi says that the daily pivot today is 82.60. If you go to http://www.actionforex.com/markets/p...2010040848154/ , (make sure you select the 'Daily' tab), you can see that they have todays pivot at 82.63. That's close enough
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 FXI Pivots.ex4   25 KB | 259 downloads
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,927
  • Apr 21, 2011 1:48am Apr 21, 2011 1:48am
Quoting realjumper
I'd rather buy the dips than sell from here. If we can get to 81.30 - 81.10, I'll be a keen buyer if the pa looks good. Selling from here though is a bit too risky for me.
Me too, targetting 81.50

D1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0043.jpg Size: 88 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #23,928
  • Apr 21, 2011 1:53am Apr 21, 2011 1:53am
thank you so much , i figured out the closing is at sdyney opening , which is the start of asian open =))

Quoting realjumper
Here is the indi I use. You will find that the pivots vary slightly between brokers, but if you use a USA based broker, your pivot should be close. The indi says that the daily pivot today is 82.60. If you go to http://www.actionforex.com/markets/p...2010040848154/ , (make sure you select the 'Daily' tab), you can see that they have todays pivot at 82.63. That's close enough
  • #23,929
  • Apr 21, 2011 2:45am Apr 21, 2011 2:45am
wow , u all set such shrewd and conservative orders might really would take a long time to get into a trade.

Quoting USD-Bear
Me too, targetting 81.50

D1:
Attachment
  • #23,930
  • Apr 21, 2011 3:18am Apr 21, 2011 3:18am
Quoting tankokjian
wow , u all set such shrewd and conservative orders might really would take a long time to get into a trade.
I trade several pairs though, so there is no need to try and force a trade on any particular pair. For me.....I like to sit under the Forex tree and see what fruit falls into my hands....and I gratefully accept what I find. If I tried to climb the tree and get more, I would fall from the tree and get hurt!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,931
  • Apr 21, 2011 3:26am Apr 21, 2011 3:26am
Quoting tankokjian
wow , u all set such shrewd and conservative orders might really would take a long time to get into a trade.
there are so many fishes to catch, why not taking the fat ones....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #23,932
  • Apr 21, 2011 4:11am Apr 21, 2011 4:11am
i rather getting hurt some times and get many cherries.

Quoting realjumper
I trade several pairs though, so there is no need to try and force a trade on any particular pair. For me.....I like to sit under the Forex tree and see what fruit falls into my hands....and I gratefully accept what I find. If I tried to climb the tree and get more, I would fall from the tree and get hurt!!
  • #23,933
  • Apr 21, 2011 4:28am Apr 21, 2011 4:28am
Quoting tankokjian
i rather getting hurt some times and get many cherries.
I get a good handful of cherries, as well as apples, oranges, pears, peaches, apricots!!!

To each their own though....good luck
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,934
  • Apr 21, 2011 11:35am Apr 21, 2011 11:35am
Need to find support at 81, 80.50 level. Break will continue downtrend IMO. Or start the range trading
  • #23,935
  • Apr 23, 2011 7:35am Apr 23, 2011 7:35am
Here is monthly chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY MN.PNG Size: 51 KB


We can see more clearly in weekly chart where USD/JPY moves in range from 80.29 to 85.5.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY W1.PNG Size: 51 KB
  • #23,936
  • Apr 24, 2011 8:18pm Apr 24, 2011 8:18pm
Quoting Armst227
Need to find support at 81, 80.50 level. Break will continue downtrend IMO. Or start the range trading
if it goes back to 83.00 are u going to still wait for the 81,80.50 before entering ??
  • #23,937
  • Edited 9:17pm Apr 24, 2011 8:50pm | Edited 9:17pm
nice one, u must have gotten some pips from there, where do u look out for next ? from what i see short term bullish to 82.68 or 82.33, long term bearish (back to 82.0.

Quoting USD-Bear
Me too, targetting 81.50

D1:
Attachment
  • #23,938
  • Apr 24, 2011 10:38pm Apr 24, 2011 10:38pm
USD/JPY-H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #23,939
  • Apr 25, 2011 12:19am Apr 25, 2011 12:19am
MARKET TALK: USD/JPY May Hit 100.00 By Fiscal Year-End - Daiwa

0046 GMT [Dow Jones] The WSJ interview with BOJ Governor Shirakawa saying Japan's GDP will likely shrink in the first half of this year suggests that the BOJ has no choice but to leave its policy ultra-easy for the time being; reinforcing views that the JPY will be the least favorable vehicle for investment for this fiscal year that started in April, says Daiwa SB Investments senior fund manager Kenichiro Ikezawa. "This is Shirakawa confirming that the BOJ's easy policy will remain for a while," meaning "the yen will likely weaken." He says the USD/JPY may touch 100.00 briefly by the end of this fiscal year; the USD/JPY is trading at 82.15. ([email protected])
  • #23,940
  • Apr 25, 2011 12:23am Apr 25, 2011 12:23am
MARKET TALK: USD/JPY Implied Vols Steady; FOMC Eyed For Cues

0322 GMT [Dow Jones] Volatilites implied by USD/JPY currency options are mostly steady from late New York on Friday, with the market focusing on the FOMC meeting later this week. "People are taking a wait-and-see stance ahead of the FOMC meeting," says an options trader at a major Japanese bank. The U.S. will probably end its $600 billion bond purchase program in June as planned, but there is great uncertainty over how the Fed will shift towards a tighter monetary stance afterwards, traders say. The options trader adds selling demand for shorter-dated options by investors is detected but there are no major trades in the morning. Benchmark one-month at-the-money USD/JPY volatilities are at 10.70%/11.40%, compared with around 10.95% (mid-point) in late New York on Friday. ([email protected])
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