EURUSD

Are you sure? I thought they are open today as normal.

pozdrav iz slovenije, tudi mi danes delamo. se vidi, da smo tudi mi le balkan in ne evropa

lep vikend

out grabbed a couple have a good weekebd all

H&S complete, neckline broken.

lol..

4553 61 64 68
should be a decent s/r...as individuals...stronger as a group..we are under it now..

Good day to all


Green piping

Closed @ 45509 ...

Short @ 45530

believe it or not......

spot on!

yea..hopefully this friday having big pips..

Hello traders,

with yesterdays break of 74,17 in UDX, one have to do a serious recount of UDX.

So I thought it would be appropriate to reevaluate the count for EURUSD, too.

We have seen that UDX and EURUSD have moved over the last years nearly mirror inverted. Maybe this can continue.

The UDX has the following "ingredients":


EUR 57,6%
JPY 13,6%
GBP 11,9%
CAD 9,1%
SEK 4,2%
CHF 3,6%

So nearly 58% of UDX consists of EUR.

It is no question, which of EUR and USD is the stronger currency. We have to ask, which one is the weaker, which one will eventually default earlier.

With some other "stronger" currencies in the basket, UDX may suffer more than USDEUR. So it might be, that EURUSD finds a top a little bit earlier than UDX finds a bottom. But I think, that that will happen at nearly the same time.

Headache caused the move down in EURUSD from 1.51x to 1.18x. One can count it as impulse, one can even so count it as corrective move.

Those of you which read my blog frequently know, that I fairly often (always) use Awesome Oscillator (AO) to judge the waves.

Each time AO shows the highest/lowest readings at the end of a move one should either think that it was not an impulse but a C wave (C wave impulse) or one is looking at a commodity chart (commodities show highest pressure normally in its wave 5).

So back again to the movement from 1.51x to 1.18x. Judging it with AO and RSI I tend to belive that that is an ABC correction after all. Now with the situation in UDX (here we have right now no other chance as to label it as an ABC impulse), I feel confident, that that move in the end was only an ABC correction.

This issue clearly shows, that EW is a tricky thing. It is tricky, since one often tends to count what one belives and not that what is really in the cards. And that is a very serious issue especially in Forex, since the waves here are not as clear as one would like to see. We have often the situation, that we can count one wave corrective and impulsive at the same time. We should be every time remembered, that our count should fit with RSI and AO readings as well as with sentiment data.

So what do we see in this "new"count?

We are in Cycle wave 2 (green) (down) of Supercycle wave 3 (magenta) (up).

In Cycle wave 2 we are right now in Primary wave B (yellow) (up) which could have been already finished on last Thursday at 4648, or will eventually extend in the area of 1.51 to 1.55. This count will only be invalidated with a movement above 1.6037, since Cycle wave 2 can not go beyond the start of Cycle wave 1.

Primary B (yellow) of Cycle wave 2 (green) has traced out so far a WXY pattern. Here we are in wave Y.

This wave Y consists so far out of a double "three" (ABC-x-ABC). The second ABC is now a little bit more than 61.8% of the first ABC. It has to reach 5295 to get eaqual (but is not necessary).

Right now price has got stopped at a serious fib cluster. At 4683 wave aqua Y is 100% of aqua W.
At the same time we are at the 61.8% retracement of 1.60x and 1.232x (wave yellow A).

At 5239, 5295 and 5448 we have the next fib cluster.



Projections:

If we stopped at 4648, wave yellow C should reach normally 100-165% of wave A. That would give targets between 1,08x and 0.85x.

If we end at the 52x level, wave yellow C should see targets between 1.16 and 0.93

If we get a running flat, prices should end between 1.30 and 1.24. But running flats are rare. EWP states, that nine times out of ten you will find, that it was not a running flat but wrong counting.

My experience on that: on small TF like 1 5 or 15min you can see them regularly, but on big TF's they are really very rare.



4648 is a very important Murrey Math level on weekly, daily, 4h, 1h TF. It is at this TF's the 8/8 resistance line which should be very hard to break through (at least at the first attempt). If this line is not cracked, we can easily drop 7-9 octave lines without a long look back.

+1/8 and +2/8 lines on weekly TF at 4892 and 5136.


Maybe later more analyses.

Wish all of you a very nice weekend.


Best to you,

Markus

if gbpusd break support ...eurusd will big move down...believe it or not.....

Maybe....

vote me if im right plss.... but me must believe wave come down and up first

yea still hangging but hopefully break support...than eur will go in peace

GBPUSD hasn't broke support has it. Itwas quite bullish yesterday.

According to what I see right now we will have 4165 before 1.50.
Levels in between: 4535, 4490, 4425, 4401, 4330.

After 1.50 is reached, down to 3935.

Disclaimer: All subject to change (my mind) .

I'll be out of town. Have a good weekend all.

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