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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

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  • Post #34,361
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  • Apr 20, 2011 12:21am Apr 20, 2011 12:21am
  •  leelar
  • | Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Member | 285 Posts
Quoting ohammond
Disliked
This has never been a "system" with rules as you would normally see on Forex Factory, so to say "I don't think any of the trades are following the original rule/setup" shows you have a lot more reading to do....
Ignored
Thanks ohammond for taking the time to guide the newbie like me.

I read the PDF about 4 times, I really don't recall EO using higher TF to spot the S/R. I did see lots of sample of MA cross, 1H62 setups.

I also don't see the latest trades here talking about Higher TF S/R. except Ahsanfx since his chart is so obvious.

Please, I don't mean that others don't do it that way, it is just I don't read it from the posts posted.

Cheers,
 
 
  • Post #34,362
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  • Apr 20, 2011 2:01am Apr 20, 2011 2:01am
  •  ohammond
  • Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Member | 1,886 Posts
Quoting leelar
Disliked
Thanks ohammond for taking the time to guide the newbie like me.

I read the PDF about 4 times, I really don't recall EO using higher TF to spot the S/R. I did see lots of sample of MA cross, 1H62 setups.
Ignored
Thats why you really need to read their posts rather than just the pdf, click on the username of eohater, infinity, pippinole also more recently the Captain bkg102665 and turtle and then click on view posts it is honestly well worth the time.

Quote
Disliked
I also don't see the latest trades here talking about Higher TF S/R. except Ahsanfx since his chart is so obvious.

Please, I don't mean that others don't do it that way, it is just I don't read it from the posts posted.
No they are not always obvious but if you look at the charts posted and then go to the higher timeframes for the same time you will see usually either an ma or horizontal support that price is near.

I for instance will take a trade from the 5 or 15 min TF but take my lead from the higher timeframes, I never ever go against a 1 or 4hr candle I've got burned doing it too many times, I don't use them for trend because we trade up and down a "trend" but for instance if I see a short setup on the lower TF and there is a bullish pin just closed on the higher TF I won't take it, I would look for longs instead.
 
 
  • Post #34,363
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  • Apr 20, 2011 3:45am Apr 20, 2011 3:45am
  •  Trotty
  • Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Member | 1,167 Posts
Quoting ohammond
Disliked

I for instance will take a trade from the 5 or 15 min TF but take my lead from the higher timeframes, I never ever go against a 1 or 4hr candle I've got burned doing it too many times, I don't use them for trend because we trade up and down a "trend" but for instance if I see a short setup on the lower TF and there is a bullish pin just closed on the higher TF I won't take it, I would look for longs instead.
Ignored
That's really the essence of EO's approach to me.

Why worry so much about "trading with the trend" if you get bearish engulfing on H4 followed by a bearish pin off the 50 ema and resistance on M15? The trend may be generally up but if you get that level of agreement, why would you not want to enter?

The absolutely key thing to avoid is trading against obvious short timeframe momentum without a clear turning point indicated by the higher timeframe.
 
 
  • Post #34,364
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  • Apr 20, 2011 5:27am Apr 20, 2011 5:27am
  •  Trotty
  • Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Member | 1,167 Posts
Quoting leelar
Disliked
Thanks ohammond for taking the time to guide the newbie like me.

I read the PDF about 4 times, I really don't recall EO using higher TF to spot the S/R. I did see lots of sample of MA cross, 1H62 setups.

I also don't see the latest trades here talking about Higher TF S/R. except Ahsanfx since his chart is so obvious.

Please, I don't mean that others don't do it that way, it is just I don't read it from the posts posted.

Cheers,
Ignored
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...06#post3388406
 
 
  • Post #34,365
  • Quote
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:57am Apr 20, 2011 5:57am
  •  Survivor
  • Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Dr. Constrainment | 619 Posts
I remember someone asking if we still take original setups as per manual. I have been taking cross and reverse recently. GU 1H chart near 1.6306. Our 62 EMA was right there with other MAs and RN.

In 15 M it was a good "cross and reverse".I missed it because i had my hands full with EU. Hope someone made some good money. Hope that helps.
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
 
 
  • Post #34,366
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  • Apr 20, 2011 6:26am Apr 20, 2011 6:26am
  •  makingpips
  • | Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Member | 56 Posts
Hello,

I agree we can use the past to put us in a good position but if you really study the markets it is fairly predictive away from important data announcements. News is priced in and only important announcements need to be avoided.

Over the last 10 years I have acepted that:

if the market cannot go lower than a key level it is honour bound to try now and rise to the next higher level (and will continue towards the next if it succeeds). The opposite applies in a decline.

what I think will happen is irrelevant (and often wrong) and I just need to trade what I see based on the price action so far.

trading psychology has more of an influence over price action than anything else and that is why markets always tend to initially back off key levels on their way to potentially higher or lower ground

there is manipulation in some markets BUT you can use it to your advantage

I accept the risks of trading but recgonise I am in control of the pushing the buttons to get in and out

I follow a daily trading plan and these days follow it to the letter

I accept that any losing trades arise due to error on my part and are caused by impatience or lack of focus on the price action big picture

I never BUY at or near to the session high........this is more likely to be a SELL opportunity once confirmed with price action. Markets have to rise to provide a SELL set up.

I never SELL at or close to the session low.......this is more likely to be a BUY opportunity once confirmed with price action. Markets have to decline to provide a BUY set up.

All markets have personaility BUT in all my observations every market tells you in exactly the same way whether it intends to rise and then when it is complete and when it is going to decline and when it is complete. The range provides BIG CLUES as to what the market can do and where it will go.

I do not scalp any market......my philosphy these days is let the market move and develop the current move and then I use the predictive nature to strategically place a limit order to take profits. Importantly I let the market get on with it and try not to intervene unless price action suggests that I should.

My approach allowed me to eventually make good as a day trader........it took time to develop the skills I needed to make it all come together. More time than I had ever imagined until I wised up.

I will share some insights about price action based on my own experience in forthcoming posts.

makingpips
 
 
  • Post #34,367
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  • Apr 20, 2011 7:10am Apr 20, 2011 7:10am
  •  albchr
  • Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Member | 25,480 Posts
Quoting makingpips
Disliked
Hello,

I agree we can use the past to put us in a good position but if you really study the markets it is fairly predictive away from important data announcements. News is priced in and only important announcements need to be avoided.

Over the last 10 years I have acepted that:
Ignored
I like this post and it sounds as though you have good information and experience to share. Might I suggest you start a thread in the Journal section? You could even name it with the title of this post...Price Action Is Predictive.

I for one would be interested in following it. Thanks for sharing.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
 
 
  • Post #34,368
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  • Apr 20, 2011 7:48am Apr 20, 2011 7:48am
  •  Trotty
  • Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Member | 1,167 Posts
Quoting makingpips
Disliked

I accept that any losing trades arise due to error on my part and are caused by impatience or lack of focus on the price action big picture
Ignored
I have many losing trades. Some of them are out and out errors but also, many aren't. Many have been perfectly valid and decent setups but the market has thrown us a curved ball. Happens all the time and always will, the best thing to do when you have entered well yet been taken out is to shrug your shoulders and move on to the next setup.

Thanks for posting but not entirely sure how your post is relevant to the thread. Folk will always be cynical about a member with 2 posts boasting about being a successful trader with no track record to back it up. Not saying you do have ulterior motives but surely you can understand why people might think you do?

As above, perhaps your own journal would be a better plan
 
 
  • Post #34,369
  • Quote
  • Apr 20, 2011 8:14am Apr 20, 2011 8:14am
  •  makingpips
  • | Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Member | 56 Posts
Quoting Trotty
Disliked
I have many losing trades. Some of them are out and out errors but also, many aren't. Many have been perfectly valid and decent setups but the market has thrown us a curved ball. Happens all the time and always will, the best thing to do when you have entered well yet been taken out is to shrug your shoulders and move on to the next setup.

Thanks for posting but not entirely sure how your post is relevant to the thread. Folk will always be cynical about a member with 2 posts boasting about being a successful trader with no track record to back...
Ignored
Hello Trotty,

Just sharing my experience and not boasting at all.

All traders have losing trades it comes with the territory but these days I do not shrug my shoulders and move on.......I work out what if anything I did wrong. I rarely take another position shortly following a losing trade. Traders need to focus again before doing that.

So from one new member of this forum to another relatively new member (you have not been around long either) do not read ulterior motive into my posts when there is none.

Trading What You See is what this thread is about......I am simply contributing because I trade Price Action as opposed to what I think will happen and have done so for long enough now to be able to add to worthwhile discusssion.

makingpips
 
 
  • Post #34,370
  • Quote
  • Apr 20, 2011 8:23am Apr 20, 2011 8:23am
  •  albchr
  • Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Member | 25,480 Posts
Quoting makingpips
Disliked
Trading What You See is what this thread is about......I am simply contributing because I trade Price Action as opposed to what I think will happen and have done so for long enough now to be able to add to worthwhile discusssion.

makingpips
Ignored
That's the way I took it.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
 
 
  • Post #34,371
  • Quote
  • Apr 20, 2011 8:47am Apr 20, 2011 8:47am
  •  Trotty
  • Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Member | 1,167 Posts
Quoting makingpips
Disliked
Hello Trotty,

Just sharing my experience and not boasting at all.
Ignored
Hi,

I wasn't accusing you of boasting either, just saying that anyone is able to say that they are a proven trader but it's very different proving you are. I take a great deal of convincing. Don't take it as confrontation, just some friendly advice.

Having read through this whole thread, i was left in no doubt about the abilities of Infinity and EO, it was all here in the open for everyone to see. Ken Lee and few others as well did more than enough to dispaly their understanding and their record. Credibility is a tough thing to obtain on a forum like this so it takes much more than empty words.

Quoting makingpips
Disliked
All traders have losing trades it comes with the territory but these days I do not shrug my shoulders and move on.......I work out what if anything I did wrong. I rarely take another position shortly following a losing trade. Traders need to focus again before doing that.
Ignored
Sure, I too always analyse losing trades but often just accept that the analysys was sound, the entry fine and the stop sensible. Sometimes the market will just do the opposite of what you expect.

Quoting makingpips
Disliked
So from one new member of this forum to another relatively new member (you have not been around long either) do not read ulterior motive into my posts when there is none.

Trading What You See is what this thread is about......I am simply contributing...
Ignored
I look forward to your input mate. As was pointed out earlier, we should try and keep this thread as close to price action trading and price action trading with the highlighted mas as possible. I fall foul of throwing fibs and other technical tools up here and there but so far, I reckon i've just about gotten away with it
 
 
  • Post #34,372
  • Quote
  • Apr 20, 2011 11:28am Apr 20, 2011 11:28am
  •  leelar
  • | Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Member | 285 Posts
Thanks Trotty and ohammond.
 
 
  • Post #34,373
  • Quote
  • Apr 20, 2011 11:41am Apr 20, 2011 11:41am
  •  makingpips
  • | Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Member | 56 Posts
Quoting Trotty
Disliked
Hi,

I wasn't accusing you of boasting either, just saying that anyone is able to say that they are a proven trader but it's very different proving you are. I take a great deal of convincing. Don't take it as confrontation, just some friendly advice.

Having read through this whole thread, i was left in no doubt about the abilities of Infinity and EO, it was all here in the open for everyone to see. Ken Lee and few others as well did more than enough to dispaly their understanding and their record. Credibility is a tough thing to obtain on a forum...
Ignored
Hello Again,

OK fair enough I have to earn my stripes here........BUT I did post at 5.48 EST in the thread Price Is EveryThing (post 16352) that I was in a BUY trade on Nymex Daily US Light Crude (Jun) BUY 109.14 and would stay in the trade as long as market moved above 110.00 and 110.50 as price action played out............and at the time of writing this post am still in it as it deals with 111.00.

This just a day trade based on price action analysis.
When you understand price action you do not need anything else.

makingpips
 
 
  • Post #34,374
  • Quote
  • Apr 20, 2011 2:05pm Apr 20, 2011 2:05pm
  •  cisco
  • | Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Member | 2,228 Posts
okay...can't we all just get along?
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
 
 
  • Post #34,375
  • Quote
  • Apr 20, 2011 3:38pm Apr 20, 2011 3:38pm
  •  MapleLeaf
  • | Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Member | 637 Posts
Is anyone trading live with this method and making a profit? can you post at least one of your live trades and show us how you trade what you see in real time?
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
 
 
  • Post #34,376
  • Quote
  • Apr 20, 2011 3:49pm Apr 20, 2011 3:49pm
  •  ohammond
  • Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Member | 1,886 Posts
Quoting MapleLeaf
Disliked
Is anyone trading live with this method and making a profit? can you post at least one of your live trades and show us how you trade what you see in real time?
Ignored
If you read the thread you will see there are plenty of us trading live and making a profit. Posting as it happens is very difficult for me because when I'm trading thats all I concentrate on. The best I can do is after I've finished.
 
 
  • Post #34,377
  • Quote
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:06pm Apr 20, 2011 4:06pm
  •  Storeball
  • | Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Member | 499 Posts
Quoting MapleLeaf
Disliked
Is anyone trading live with this method and making a profit? can you post at least one of your live trades and show us how you trade what you see in real time?
Ignored
Dude, there is over 3000 attachments on this thread. If you look closely I think youll find a trade or two. Just sayin
 
 
  • Post #34,378
  • Quote
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:23pm Apr 20, 2011 4:23pm
  •  The Captain
  • Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Thank You eohater | 790 Posts
Quoting Storeball
Disliked
Dude, there is over 3000 attachments on this thread. If you look closely I think youll find a trade or two. Just sayin
Ignored


This is what I told you in the PM you sent me Maple Leaf. People do not have time to post trades as they take them. We will continue like we have and post the occasional setup or what we are looking for.

Please spend less time asking the same questions over and over and more time studying charts.
Cap
 
 
  • Post #34,379
  • Quote
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:20pm Apr 20, 2011 5:20pm
  •  Turtle
  • Joined May 2007 | Status: Member | 4,716 Posts
Hope everyone is doing well, wild weekend in NC, tornadoes everywhere, One came within 3 miles of me. Power went out, desktop computer blew, oh well, just like a trade all you can do is move on.

Went long this morning at around 6:13est on GBPUSD.

Originial: entry 1.6354, s/l 1.6284, t/p 1.6700

Just moved s/l @ +2. Let's see if this is the run north, if not no worries, it's a free trade now.

HOLLA
Attached Image
 
 
  • Post #34,380
  • Quote
  • Apr 20, 2011 6:45pm Apr 20, 2011 6:45pm
  •  MapleLeaf
  • | Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Member | 637 Posts
The_Captain, I don't know why you mention my pm, but on this thread you said that "Many members on that thread regularly get 100-200 pip trades, and most of these trades are being posted live so you can go see for yourself."

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=117

So, that is why I came here to take a look.

Of course I have read the PDF of thread, but I wanted to see this in action as you stated. That is the practice part of the system as far as Im concerned, but it's ok, you could make a mistake by saying that.

Clear and fair. Otherwise it always looks like someone did not say something or like the other person is always wrong.

Now, I go back to test it on my own.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
 
 
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