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  • #424,401
  • Apr 19, 2011 5:08pm Apr 19, 2011 5:08pm
Quoting Forexia
Thanks for the explanation. But there are so many different "swings" in forming bigger swings. Which swing do you take? That's my question. Do you just take any swing that you want or do you accomodate each of the little "swings" in between?
The only way to eliminate arbitrarily choosing this one and not that one is to take only the dominant swings. For instance, since so many here are short-term traders, on the M5 chart currently I would use the swing low at 520pm est (really double bottom also with 425pm est bar) and the swing high at 320pm est. If I needed to see if more fib retracement levels lined up with this one I would move out to a higher timeframe chart(s). Sometimes there isn't really a swing out there to reference without really looking way back. It is what it is.

Now having said all that here is some more basics to determining which swings to use if you don't want to just stick with using the most dominate swings.

In an uptrend if swing lows are close to each other such as a double bottom or just close in a support zone use the swing furthest to the right. And also if a swing low is inside another - meaning LL then in between a higher LL then another LL. Ignore the in between higher LL.

And again reverse all this when in a downtrend.

HTH
  • #424,402
  • Apr 19, 2011 5:21pm Apr 19, 2011 5:21pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
what month, buddy?


whatever month reaches that value


740.19 - taking variable spreads 704.29 ( ask )
  • #424,403
  • Apr 19, 2011 5:22pm Apr 19, 2011 5:22pm
12 bad entries in one spot. Currently in 10 pip plus.

Guys, could you generously tell me if it gonna fall on wednesday or should I better get out of my night short? Asking for opinion of course, quite exhausted after the day - wish to go for a nap...
  • #424,404
  • Apr 19, 2011 5:27pm Apr 19, 2011 5:27pm
Quoting psiholog

Now here is the reality. This analysis one year ago would have meant 80% certainty that I am correct. It's almost flawless. Today due to global uncertainty in ALL aspects (anyone notice how different the weather is?).....today my analysis is 55% likely to succeed at best.


Anyone who thinks they know the market "today" has not done their homework because no one today knows the market of "today".
beautifull analysis psiholog, makes me feel very humble..........
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #424,405
  • Apr 19, 2011 5:28pm Apr 19, 2011 5:28pm
Quoting mercy seat
Jawohl ... downside only corrective in nature at first ... only after further upside attempts there might be seen one more major reversal move ...

Still not much downside pressure anymore ... sieht nicht so richtig toll aus für die Fankurve der Bärchis ...

Upside preferred soon ... furthermore should go up towards 1.4374 / 1.4390 or even higher than 1.4421 again ... downside limited at first ... 1.4282 or 1.4262 maximum in Pacific Session ... and only a dip to 1.4312 - 1.4287 more likely ...



;-|
Grüezi Wohl nach Österreich der Herr. 1.4421 ischs mindeschte was mi gläserne Äugli in der Nacht sehe dut. I am not a very good short term trader...me thinks we will continue up to 1.4800 at least as a continuation move of the weekly trendline break and to reclaim the 2007 consolidation area and then correction time to test that broken trendline again from the upside before we crack 1.50. Aber da leg ich mich nicht fest. Auf dem swing trade Dampfer hast du mehr drauf als ich. Also Guets Nächtli, jetzt wird geknackt!
  • #424,406
  • Apr 19, 2011 5:30pm Apr 19, 2011 5:30pm
Quoting SunTrader
Fib retracements are drawn obviously from a swing high to a swing low. Which ones?

For example once you believe a downtrend has stopped and a swing pivot has formed look to the left and see where price was lower in the past. Then find the highest high in between. That is the swing high to use with the current swing low. Easy.

Reverse for an uptrend.

Chart pic shows idealized version from 2010 with an uptrend topping at point A, looking left back to the last time price was higher is point B and in the middle is point C.

50% retracement,...
Wow!
Never herd about time-retracements! Please share, how you count them or just let know, what should I seek for to have the answer!

I don-t have any time predicting system, but God! how I need one!!!
  • #424,407
  • Apr 19, 2011 5:31pm Apr 19, 2011 5:31pm
Quoting mercy seat
Jawohl ... downside only corrective in nature at first ... only after further upside attempts there might be seen one more major reversal move ...

Still not much downside pressure anymore ... sieht nicht so richtig toll aus für die Fankurve der Bärchis ...

Upside preferred soon ... furthermore should go up towards 1.4374 / 1.4390 or even higher than 1.4421 again ... downside limited at first ... 1.4282 or 1.4262 maximum in Pacific Session ... and only a dip to 1.4312 - 1.4287 more likely ...



;-|


So what?!



Quoting WityMushroom
12 bad entries in one spot. Currently in 10 pip plus.

Guys, could you generously tell me if it gonna fall on wednesday or should I better get out of my night short? Asking for opinion of course, quite exhausted after the day - wish to go for a nap...

Ist doch bereits alles gesagt ...



;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #424,408
  • Apr 19, 2011 5:31pm Apr 19, 2011 5:31pm
Quoting WityMushroom
12 bad entries in one spot. Currently in 10 pip plus.

Guys, could you generously tell me if it gonna fall on wednesday or should I better get out of my night short? Asking for opinion of course, quite exhausted after the day - wish to go for a nap...
Wity - Nobody knows - Yes nobody - But uptrend seems nearly exhausted at fibo 50 - Take a short one - Sleep tight...If you can
  • #424,409
  • Apr 19, 2011 5:32pm Apr 19, 2011 5:32pm
Quoting SirMcPip
Grüezi Wohl nach Österreich der Herr. 1.4421 ischs mindeschte was mi gläserne Äugli in der Nacht sehe dut. I am not a very good short term trader...me thinks we will continue up to 1.4800 at least as a continuation move of the weekly trendline break and to reclaim the 2007 consolidation area and then correction time to test that broken trendline again from the upside before we crack 1.50. Aber da leg ich mich nicht fest. Auf dem swing trade Dampfer hast du mehr drauf als ich. Also Guets Nächtli, jetzt wird geknackt!
Ja ... so machen wir das ...
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #424,410
  • Apr 19, 2011 5:37pm Apr 19, 2011 5:37pm
Quoting WityMushroom
12 bad entries in one spot. Currently in 10 pip plus.

Guys, could you generously tell me if it gonna fall on wednesday or should I better get out of my night short? Asking for opinion of course, quite exhausted after the day - wish to go for a nap...
A-ah... Closed all.
Nothing should affect my sleeping hours.

PS
Thanks God! I stayed in 20 green pips for the day.
  • #424,411
  • Apr 19, 2011 5:40pm Apr 19, 2011 5:40pm
Quoting Deltabravo
Wity - Nobody knows - Yes nobody - But uptrend seems nearly exhausted at fibo 50 - Take a short one - Sleep tight...If you can
Thanks, Guys.

Wish to have a dream of my drastical losses - to be motivated for profits tomorrow .

Big Greens to all! $)
  • #424,412
  • Apr 19, 2011 5:41pm Apr 19, 2011 5:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
if im here, ill sell here 64/83 with a candle .. but will not hold if we don't close below 4309 .. also sl above 93..
sucka looks toppy already..
i didn't miss a thing. levels r working
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #424,413
  • Apr 19, 2011 5:46pm Apr 19, 2011 5:46pm
Quoting SunTrader
A candle alone is not a very good reason to take a trade.
especially in the center of s/r...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #424,414
  • Apr 19, 2011 5:51pm Apr 19, 2011 5:51pm
Quoting SirMcPip
Grüezi Wohl nach Österreich der Herr. 1.4421 ischs mindeschte was mi gläserne Äugli in der Nacht sehe dut. I am not a very good short term trader...me thinks we will continue up to 1.4800 at least as a continuation move of the weekly trendline break and to reclaim the 2007 consolidation area and then correction time to test that broken trendline again from the upside before we crack 1.50. Aber da leg ich mich nicht fest. Auf dem swing trade Dampfer hast du mehr drauf als ich. Also Guets Nächtli, jetzt wird geknackt!
haue mich auch mal auf die Ohren.

Bis nacher.
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #424,415
  • Apr 19, 2011 5:57pm Apr 19, 2011 5:57pm
Quoting PhAnTi'
haue mich auch mal auf die Ohren.

Bis nacher.

Als Wiener wünsche ich Goooood night
  • #424,416
  • Apr 19, 2011 6:01pm Apr 19, 2011 6:01pm
I see alot of R & S so i see it trading in a range. Buy when it gets to the high 42's and sell in the highs 43's. Unless i see a solid break either way then i see it this way.
  • #424,417
  • Apr 19, 2011 6:02pm Apr 19, 2011 6:02pm
Quoting psiholog
........
The reality is this, if most of us use 90% technical analysis for our trading and only 10% fundamental analysis, these days markets are 90% fundamentally driven and 10% technical. It is not the known fundies either that move the markets, it is the news that we find out when its all too late.
..........
Here's a suggestion: Tweak your technical analysis.

Fundies are like police officers, they either arrive after the fact or leave right before they're needed. Nothing against LEO, but it's true, seldom are they in the right place at the right time. Tweak your technical analysis and arm yourself to protect yourself against this crazy market we call forex.
  • #424,418
  • Apr 19, 2011 6:11pm Apr 19, 2011 6:11pm
Quoting SunTrader
The only way to eliminate arbitrarily choosing this one and not that one is to take only the dominant swings. For instance, since so many here are short-term traders, on the M5 chart currently I would use the swing low at 520pm est (really double bottom also with 425pm est bar) and the swing high at 320pm est. If I needed to see if more fib retracement levels lined up with this one I would move out to a higher timeframe chart(s). Sometimes there isn't really a swing out there to reference without really looking way back. It is what it is.

Now...
Thanks so much for the detailed explanation. This is really helpful. I will give Fibo another try.

Cheers!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #424,419
  • Apr 19, 2011 6:12pm Apr 19, 2011 6:12pm
Quoting GulfCoastPip
Here's a suggestion: Tweak your technical analysis.

Fundies are like police officers, they either arrive after the fact or leave right before they're needed. Nothing against LEO, but it's true, seldom are they in the right place at the right time. Tweak your technical analysis and arm yourself to protect yourself against this crazy market we call forex.
ill i have to say is a combination of both will land you in the spot.

have to be aware of the news as to not get caught
since the begining of the year

dollar weakness, all fundamentals point to this and market sentiment also wants to get rid of the dollar.

i believe the USD is the most important currency in the world and watching what affects it, seldom leaves us guessing.

pull out your charts of the majors.

aud/usd gbp/usd eur/usd all are in bull trend because of the fundamentals of dollar weakness

usd/cad usd/chf and usd/jpy (before the intervention (which by the way was anounced 2 days before it happened))
have all been respecting the fundamental dollar weakness

usdx the is euro bias but still gives you the direction of the USD

comodities, oil, all point to dollar weakness.

dollar weakness equals euro bull and all majors act to the tune of the USD


my observation. when the USD stops being under pressure or the FED turn HAWKISH mark my words

our TECHNICAL CHARTS will reflect FUNDAMENTALS,

cant have one with out the other. CANT GO ON FUNDAMENTALS AND GAMBLE YOUR MONEY if your TECHNICAL CHARTS DONT GIVE YOU A REASON TO DO OR DIE
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #424,420
  • Apr 19, 2011 6:12pm Apr 19, 2011 6:12pm
Quoting GulfCoastPip
Here's a suggestion: Tweak your technical analysis.

Fundies are like police officers, they either arrive after the fact or leave right before they're needed. Nothing against LEO, but it's true, seldom are they in the right place at the right time. Tweak your technical analysis and arm yourself to protect yourself against this crazy market we call forex.
Agree...TA is a way to follow the money, not crystal ball the future...

Personally, I could give a shit less what the fundies say...it's all bullshit anyways...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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