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  • #424,381
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:16pm Apr 19, 2011 4:16pm
trade slv - buy only


not so much gold, slv goes 1000% its current value in less that 10 years



no, not a mis quote - 1000% is correct
  • #424,382
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:17pm Apr 19, 2011 4:17pm
Quoting Dishwasher
50% isn't a fibonacci number at all, that's more of a gann thing.........
True but then again most think 0.618 or 61.8% is the true magically fib number. It isn't - 1.618 or 161.8% is, the so-called divine proportion/golden ratio.

61.8 is just the reciprocal of 161.8
  • #424,383
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:17pm Apr 19, 2011 4:17pm
Quoting suirad
Socker hit my SL at 0.9010, why is acting like this?
No other pair acting like this

Attachment
Sisse will do this from time to time. I've seen her move 100-150 pips in each direction within minutes.
  • #424,384
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:19pm Apr 19, 2011 4:19pm
Quoting redsword11
yes, no doubting that, they also hold more usa debt than anyone else .......
not only that... they also have a large enough population where if each person puts out 1 usd... its already 1.3 bln dollar extra to spend on... more US debt, i hope not... about time the chinese economy emerges for the first time in centuries... this baby's growth been delayed for centuries...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #424,385
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:19pm Apr 19, 2011 4:19pm
Quoting Dishwasher
.......... Prechter once even admitted he was a horrible trader, yet some still buy his bs.
Can't believe it either.
  • #424,386
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:24pm Apr 19, 2011 4:24pm
Quoting the redlion

ITS ALL PART OF ONE.

KNOW YOUR STRATEGY WELL
AND KNOW THE MARKET
AS WELL AS KNOW YOURSELF
and there is your edge
You forgot one very essential thing. The majority of people who visit this forum are technicals oriented with a smaller emphasis on fundamentals. The only relevance for most of us fundies has when applied to trading is to be aware of when important data comes out to either stay out or play extremely cautiously.

Now ask yourself, how much of the market we have seen since late last year is very technical? How much of it is influenced by fundies? Then the question becomes, which fundies are valid? If oil inventories are increasing every week how come oil goes up in price every week? Why is inflation a concern in the eurozone when the number one issue since the Eur/Usd was 1.6 is and will be, the economy, finding methods to not break the eurozone up? If Japan has 40 years worth of nuclear reactor waste at Fukushima, why is this not even mentioned in the media? Etcetera, etcera.

The reality is this, if most of us use 90% technical analysis for our trading and only 10% fundamental analysis, these days markets are 90% fundamentally driven and 10% technical. It is not the known fundies either that move the markets, it is the news that we find out when its all too late.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Example of technicals today.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ff.gif Size: 20 KB


The most recent uptrend (blue lines) on the 4 hour timeframe was broken to the downside yesterday. To do this it had to break through the 1.4345 mega support area that acted as resistance before the highs of last week. After reaching 1.4150 we have seen today consolidation upwards towards a retest of the breakout wall which coincides with the 1.4345 area to determine whether it has become a strong resistance area or not. This area also is 50% fib retracement from the highs. The whole movement downwards from 1.45 to 1.415 also resembles a bear flag.

My "edge" or rather my gut feeling says it will continue down and that this will happen tommorow (possibly with start of Asian or Euro session).

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Now here is the reality. This analysis one year ago would have meant 80% certainty that I am correct. It's almost flawless. Today due to global uncertainty in ALL aspects (anyone notice how different the weather is?).....today my analysis is 55% likely to succeed at best.


Anyone who thinks they know the market "today" has not done their homework because no one today knows the market of "today".
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #424,387
  • Edited 4:37pm Apr 19, 2011 4:26pm | Edited 4:37pm
I understand better now,
thanks for clarifying
Quoting redsword11
if the hammer is constructed of a compressed rally, inotherwords the 5 min is spiking south whilst rising to create the 30 min hammer ....... the hammer will fail


its not what the hammer on 30 min looks like, its what that that hammer is built off that makes it more important
  • #424,388
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:27pm Apr 19, 2011 4:27pm
Quoting redsword11
....... the wall exists today, you can visit the dust of those brave children
I would feel even better with the name of the author and the place.
Yes I have to agree a "FIBO" 50 is not by any mean something magical.

But if the 100 an 0 are correctly put it is a good indicator.

in that case the 100 is very simple : it is the 1 45 10 something that was a resistance since the 12 th of april

for the o it is even more simple it is the low at 1 41 58 of monday 18 th

If you tell me the name and the place this is perfect but that explanation was unconditional

Best to you
  • #424,389
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:29pm Apr 19, 2011 4:29pm
Quoting bguguen
not only that... they also have a large enough population where if each person puts out 1 usd... its already 1.3 bln dollar extra to spend on... more US debt, i hope not... about time the chinese economy emerges for the first time in centuries... this baby's growth been delayed for centuries...


you have done homework, rather you are chinese with pride?
  • #424,390
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:33pm Apr 19, 2011 4:33pm
Quoting Deltabravo
I would feel even better with the name of the author and the place.
Yes I have to agree a "FIBO" 50 is not by any mean something magical.

But if the 100 an 0 are correctly put it is a good indicator.

in that case the 100 is very simple : it is the 1 45 10 something that was a resistance since the 12 th of april

for the o it is even more simple it is the low at 1 41 58 of monday 18 th

If you tell me the name and the place this is perfect but that explanation was unconditional

Best to you


best to you too, cutting but cutting through the nonesense, what we do in one hour others couldn't do in a lifetime ..... salute you and all others here who put it on the line and display it
  • #424,391
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:35pm Apr 19, 2011 4:35pm
Quoting redsword11
you have done homework, rather you are chinese with pride?
nah just half chinese, anyways got to head to bed friggin 5:35Am here in HK and i guess its about time to call in since US i closed...cya later red! keep the muppets out yea, ill be watching out for news to move the market... since theres no direction yet...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #424,392
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:38pm Apr 19, 2011 4:38pm
night all!
  • #424,393
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:39pm Apr 19, 2011 4:39pm
Quoting Magix
If you keep in mind that this is only one tool you can trade with, you will increase your chances at success...If you have no comprension on using Fibs or assume Turns instead of targets, you are every bit as dead in the water as coin tossing.
Yes, but how do you know price will definitely reverse at certain Fibo levels? And like I said before, there are so many different Fibo lines that you can draw from different high and low points on just one TF of the chart, how do you know at which level at which Fibo line would the price reverse?

This is what I find most difficult with Fibo. It has an elelgant math theory behind it and explains PA beautifully until you need to use it for trading and then you find it's not that practical.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #424,394
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:41pm Apr 19, 2011 4:41pm
Quoting bguguen
nah just half chinese, anyways got to head to bed friggin 5:35Am here in HK and i guess its about time to call in since US i closed...cya later red! keep the muppets out yea, ill be watching out for news to move the market... since theres no direction yet...

Attached Image




will try, hmmmmmmm, actaully - would be boring without the puppets muppets, we need some fcukwit traders to piss on, anyway, get your meaning, don't wish any trader good luck because the fact you wish them good luck is meaning or suggesting they trade luck ........ fcuk that, we trade price as it develops
  • #424,395
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:41pm Apr 19, 2011 4:41pm
Fib retracements are drawn obviously from a swing high to a swing low. Which ones?

For example once you believe a downtrend has stopped and a swing pivot has formed look to the left and see where price was lower in the past. Then find the highest high in between. That is the swing high to use with the current swing low. Easy.

Reverse for an uptrend.

Chart pic shows idealized version from 2010 with an uptrend topping at point A, looking left back to the last time price was higher is point B and in the middle is point C.

50% retracement, bing, bang, boom. If only it happened this way more often.

BTW on the bottom of the chart but above the volume indicator a time retracement indicator shows where 50% retracement of time of swing C-A lands. It was after price hit 50% fib retracement level but although price bounced it did not really begin new uptrend until both 50% price and time retracements were complete. Gann price and time squared.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUfibs.gif Size: 113 KB
  • #424,396
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:42pm Apr 19, 2011 4:42pm
My monthly, weekly and daily, hope it helps:
Attached Images
  • #424,397
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:47pm Apr 19, 2011 4:47pm
Quoting SunTrader
Fib retracements are drawn obviously from a swing high to a swing low. Which ones?

For example once you believe a downtrend has stopped and a swing pivot has formed look to the left and see where price was lower in the past. Then find the highest high in between. That is the swing high to use with the current swing low. Easy.

Reverse for an uptrend.

Chart pic shows idealized version from 2010 with an uptrend topping at point A, looking left back to the last time price was higher is point B and in the middle is point C.

50% retracement,...
Thanks for the explanation. But there are so many different "swings" in forming bigger swings. Which swing do you take? That's my question. Do you just take any swing that you want or do you accomodate each of the little "swings" in between?
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #424,398
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:56pm Apr 19, 2011 4:56pm
Quoting Forexia
Yes, but how do you know price will definitely reverse at certain Fibo levels? And like I said before, there are so many different Fibo lines that you can draw from different high and low points on just one TF of the chart, how do you know at which level at which Fibo line would the price reverse?

This is what I find most difficult with Fibo. It has an elelgant math theory behind it and explains PA beautifully until you need to use it for trading and then you find it's not that practical.
hello,
i use a lot fibos
most of times, trendlines are fibofan levels.
about fibo retrace i agree, we can't use it eyes closed and go for the position. must check PA.
but hey... it is same thing maybe on all things on forex, isn't it?
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #424,399
  • Apr 19, 2011 5:07pm Apr 19, 2011 5:07pm
Quoting Forexia
Yes, but how do you know price will definitely reverse at certain Fibo levels? And like I said before, there are so many different Fibo lines that you can draw from different high and low points on just one TF of the chart, how do you know at which level at which Fibo line would the price reverse?

This is what I find most difficult with Fibo. It has an elelgant math theory behind it and explains PA beautifully until you need to use it for trading and then you find it's not that practical.
The point is not to assume makert reversals...it is to assume target ranges...

Used in much the same fashion as any system for support and resistance ranges, if price finds support, trade to next resistance...

Viewing fibos or any other tool like they will 100% forecast absolutes (tops and bottoms) will seperate you from your money fast...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #424,400
  • Apr 19, 2011 5:08pm Apr 19, 2011 5:08pm
Quoting SirMcPip
Here is a little weekly chart showing what we are up to right now. Yesterday, we broke the uptendline shortly and i heard already screams of a trend reversal. Today, here are a few things to consider. Of both the weekly downtrend and uptrend line which one was quickly reclaimed? Then look at the 2008 and 2010 supply zones and the reaction at these levels. True, we were in a supply zone at 1,4520 but the reaction yesterday was a mere blip in the overall picture and except for the 1 minute chart, there is nothing even remotely resembling a change...
Jawohl ... downside only corrective in nature at first ... only after further upside attempts there might be seen one more major reversal move ...

Still not much downside pressure anymore ... sieht nicht so richtig toll aus für die Fankurve der Bärchis ...

Upside preferred soon ... furthermore should go up towards 1.4374 / 1.4390 or even higher than 1.4421 again ... downside limited at first ... 1.4282 or 1.4262 maximum in Pacific Session ... and only a dip to 1.4312 - 1.4287 more likely ...



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