AUD/USD

I am also thinking on that. I was actually profitable at very first on the M1. I can use intuitions and catch the moment. Any other timeframe above M1 is a guesswork.

I swear, every week I see a statement that I am just completely dumbfounded by. lol

I trade almost all time frames, 5m, 15m, 30m, 4h, and Daily.

I certainly would never enter a trade based on guesswork.

Yes, I only enter a trade on technicial analysis, good R/R, etc. + some intuitions. But as I see without intuitions the trade won't work, the system don't work. If just follow mechanical signals as a robot I could write an EA for it and it worked instead of me. I'am very good at programming and I could develop a very sophisticated system. We all know that doesn't work. Or I am stick to the computer all day and pick up the very high probability trades to make actual profit. But I know it can be mastered in average 2-3 years (I think intensively much faster, thanks to the internet). But I think the M1 is a completely different way. On the M1 you see the movements very detailed and you can use your intuitions. You can trade very narrow range sideways market and such a fluctations where you would never enter even on the M5 or above. If you trade the M5 or above, until you are waiting for a setup you missed many-many trades on the M1 (if you have a low spread). What I called guesswork is everything more than catch the "moment", the current move based on intuitions. At the very first I was extermely profitable on M1. I made a huge on the demo and on real +50% in 1.5 weeks. Then I was stupid that's why I lost a big but I knew exactly where I was wrong. I realized almost everything in the first days without learning. Then I started to learning and it is a completely different way. Now I am unable to see it clear... But it is just my point of view..

On the daily this week the wicks have formed a top and price has not been able to break this barrier.


In my opinion to break out and up with conviction the Euro has to show Teflon how to do it, but as suspected the Euro bashing has started few days ago and some smart money either took some profits or they have sold some of their buy holdings (wicks on a daily bases).


For me the game is wait and see.

Cheers

Someone's right ! No Top to Aussie forever !

Whatever excuse,
whatever happened in Australia,Commodity,Euro is not important at all !!!

No one 's really care about that ! No one's able to regulate here !

So whatsoever,let's keep insane going, let's blow all up !!!

There is now missing block in my pyramid unless it forms doubletop and retests 1.05. Allready long from .03 and 4. Oh well, chances come and go.

If you are already long it you cannot be as wrong as I was to short it.. But now I am looking for short positions.

I've got the range for Monday of 1.0520 to 1.0620 (new higher high) with the bias still looking upwards with the daily pattern analysis tool I use. US$ still weak, short interest still sufficient to hold this pair up. Strength in the US$ would be the only catalyst to change that and that does not look likely.

Great Post...Take heed!

Shack. China just raised the reserve ratio this weekend. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...inflation.html

It doesn't look like it's moving the AUDUSD pair much right now; I only show it down marginally compared to last Friday 5PM EDT. http://www.xe.com/currency/aud-australian-dollar

This week i think it will be a down trend,it is starting to go down,not much but is something,now on Friday i entered short hope to see 1.045 to make some money then a new long for 70 pips.Good luck this week guys.

Here we are. 1488 was touched at this exact point. Waiting to see what behavior could Gold have, in the few next hours, entering in the range 1488-1514 or not. Aussie is waiting for the result, to decide to go to 1.0650 or make a good retrace. If so, and less than 1.0388, that could mean going to parity at least, if not more. Next hours could give better indication.

1.070 is the level to keep an eye on. Its a monthly resistance level.

If any retracement going to happen, it will more likely happen near that level.

Considering that AUDUSD is stalling up here, this makes a perfect case for AUDNZD to continue short side.

http://i56.tinypic.com/118koig.png

AUDNZD

http://i55.tinypic.com/2rrnhxs.png

Leaked Treasury documents on the weekend will show the australian government will revise gdp from 3.2 % to 2.2 % wiping just under 14 billion dollars from the australian economy

property prices are also starting to fall from news on the weekend in the media which Has wiped out any increase in interest rates medium long term

Reversal starts today once news hits the markets

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news...416-1diqd.html


http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/mel...-1226039922655

Tech dudes telling me AUD/USD struggling 1.0520-1.0580 today.
A break of sup goes to 1.0470 then 1.0380 before we starting getting into serious concerns of uptrend validity

1.0500 is key level as it'll slip through the bottom trendline on that risiing wedge and test the previous low. Usually this pair shrugs anything off (bad data or news) as long as the US$ is mud. I've got the range at 1.0520 to 1.0620 so it'll be interesting if it struggles at the lower end of that range.

bounce off of 1.0520, a new high today makes continuation to higher highs in the week likely big question can it make it to 1.0800 level or will it break down. The concern for shorts is whether this is an ascending triangle as it should get 1.0720+ otherwise it needs to break 1.0500 and stay below. For shorts it needs a miracle bounce on the US$.

Short AUD/USD off of Fib and all time high range.

SL 1.0585, TP - should take profit at 1.0517 Fibonacci but I am open to entertaining the idea that this is the highest the pair will go. A very bad habit to entertain however.

We'll see what happens.

http://i56.tinypic.com/11kuvir.gif

SL moved to +1.

AU uptrend is losing momentum on the daily chart.
I'm waiting for bearish PA.
Massive options expiry on Wednesday at 1.0335.
This level could be a price magnet.