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AUD/USD

  • #29,281
  • Apr 7, 2011 8:34pm Apr 7, 2011 8:34pm
Quoting MapleLeaf
any ideas on what is the reaosn of audusd and other pairs going up like this??

i dont see any news right now... just wondering

GOLD is also not moving, so GOLD is not the reason this time.
High volatility. US Dollar is heavily shorted, and I think mostly against the EUR. Look at EURUSD. In my point of view the US Dollar can go lower in the following days. There is a lot of uncertainity on the markets I think because of the US Dollar.
  • #29,282
  • Apr 7, 2011 9:06pm Apr 7, 2011 9:06pm
Quoting w1nner
High volatility. US Dollar is heavily shorted, and I think mostly against the EUR. Look at EURUSD. In my point of view the US Dollar can go lower in the following days. There is a lot of uncertainity on the markets I think because of the US Dollar.
Large stops in euro triggered.
heard Jap buyers in Aud/jpy and eur/Jpy
Im selling into this rally in AUD as not convinced set stops above 1.0535 for a major breakout otherwise play the channel 1.0500-20 top bottom 1.0280-00
  • #29,283
  • Apr 7, 2011 9:16pm Apr 7, 2011 9:16pm
Let the diamond show us the direction
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #29,284
  • Apr 7, 2011 9:27pm Apr 7, 2011 9:27pm
Quoting lasty
Large stops in euro triggered.
heard Jap buyers in Aud/jpy and eur/Jpy
Im selling into this rally in AUD as not convinced set stops above 1.0535 for a major breakout otherwise play the channel 1.0500-20 top bottom 1.0280-00
Now we could enter short 1.048 on AUDUSD. The uptrend starts to become tired and slowing down a little bit. It can be a sign of some consolidation or a correction. I'm not sure about such a drop because I do not see any concrete sign of being bearish. I am also afraid of that US Dollar will be shorted on the following days which can keep it on the upside. But now AUDUSD strongly positive deviates from US Dollar so it can go lower despite of US Dollar weakening. But don't believe me and good luck!
  • #29,285
  • Apr 7, 2011 10:49pm Apr 7, 2011 10:49pm
The question it is stop loss hunting or break up..
  • #29,286
  • Apr 7, 2011 10:57pm Apr 7, 2011 10:57pm
Quoting w1nner
The question it is stop loss hunting or break up..
Answer the question. What's the easiest way for big money to make even more money?!?

You've got your direction.
  • #29,287
  • Apr 7, 2011 11:00pm Apr 7, 2011 11:00pm
Quoting Venice
Answer the question. What's the easiest way for big money to make even more money?!?

You've got your direction.

Yes, I realized. My system was signalling the upmove but unfortunately I did not long it. What a strong session (previos day's high broken).
  • #29,288
  • Apr 7, 2011 11:29pm Apr 7, 2011 11:29pm
Upper trend channel line done on weekly.
Two words: Its Friday!!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd weekly.gif Size: 23 KB


Good luck.
  • #29,289
  • Apr 8, 2011 12:03am Apr 8, 2011 12:03am
New support is 1.05, next key resistance is at 1.07.
  • #29,290
  • Apr 8, 2011 12:21am Apr 8, 2011 12:21am
Quoting w1nner
New support is 1.05, next key resistance is at 1.07.
Agree for the resistance. Looks like next bus station for Aussie, but too much indications for a great great fall in the chart in the long future, which i could not until now have decryption about its timing.

I am trying to get better idea in following GOLD. 1488-1514 could be the key.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #29,291
  • Apr 8, 2011 1:05am Apr 8, 2011 1:05am
Quoting MapleLeaf
any ideas on what is the reaosn of audusd and other pairs going up like this??

i dont see any news right now... just wondering

GOLD is also not moving, so GOLD is not the reason this time.
Attached Image
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #29,292
  • Apr 8, 2011 2:32am Apr 8, 2011 2:32am
Quoting MapleLeaf
why is AUDUSD rising and going to the sky like it is right now?

any ideas???

Big picture ideas are:

  1. The aussie banks since the recession are some of the strongest in the world.
  2. The first thing to recover after a global recession is always commodities.
  3. Australia was one of 3 countries in the world that did not technically go into recession during GFC from 2008 to 2010 (Israel and China were the other 2 nations).

However, i do not think that this is going to last much longer because other big picture ideas are now starting to cloud the picture.

  1. China, one of Australia's top 3 trading partners is backing off on its resource need.
  2. Japan, also one of Australia's top 3 trading partners is presently recovering from earthquake / tsunami. (But this will have the opposite affect in the long run when they demand resource for longterm rebuilding.)
  3. USA, also one of Australia's top 3, still lumbering towards GFC recovery and will be negatively affected by Japan natural disasters too.
  4. Australia needs to rebuild Queensland mining and Agriculture areas (which may require massive importing of built products) after the natural disasters that were literally the size of the state of Texas, or greater than the size of UK.

The above reasons I believe were the cause of Australia not putting up interest rates.

I expect a top somewhere between 1.085 and 1.09 before it enters a large ranging pattern as low as 1.0250 maybe even 1.0000.

  • #29,293
  • Apr 8, 2011 2:38am Apr 8, 2011 2:38am
Quoting aquaart
Big picture ideas are:

  1. The aussie banks since the recession are some of the strongest in the world.
  2. The first thing to recover after a global recession is always commodities.
  3. Australia was one of 3 countries in the world that did not technically go into recession during GFC from 2008 to 2010 (Israel and China were the other 2 nations).

However, i do not think that this is going to last much longer because other big picture ideas are now starting to cloud the picture.[list=1][*]China, one of Australia's top...

Thanks for this

I was in doubt where AU will get stuck but this one gave me some idea.
  • #29,294
  • Apr 8, 2011 6:08am Apr 8, 2011 6:08am
ok, looks like the support holds, just another couple of hours to see the inventories report and then up we go collecting the over weekend rollovers & crossing fingers for no more quakes.
  • #29,295
  • Apr 8, 2011 6:36am Apr 8, 2011 6:36am
Quoting Vesoao
ok, looks like the support holds, just another couple of hours to see the inventories report and then up we go collecting the over weekend rollovers & crossing fingers for no more quakes.
Do you mean an RBA report?
  • #29,296
  • Edited 7:35am Apr 8, 2011 7:10am | Edited 7:35am
I see a lot of references to resistance levels on AUDUSD on here so I'm confused as to where you are getting them as I cannot see any potential resistance levels until about 1.2 AUDUSD. Drawing cross trend lines are merely guide lines not resistance and AUD is breaking out of every single one being drawn.

You've got the central bank who is very keen on a high currency in their last report (this week) the scenario of a blow off in AUD is exactly what they want to see so they will not intervene. The Federal Reserve are showing no signs of intervening on the US$. The only charts I've seen where AUD was at these levels was pre-float in the 1970s and guess what it could go as high as $1.5 AUD to $1 US (edit was a typo)
  • #29,297
  • Apr 8, 2011 7:39am Apr 8, 2011 7:39am
Quoting ettrader
I see a lot of references to resistance levels on AUDUSD on here so I'm confused as to where you are getting them as I cannot see any potential resistance levels until about 1.2 AUDUSD. Drawing cross trend lines are merely guide lines not resistance and AUD is breaking out of every single one being drawn.

You've got the central bank who is very keen on a high currency in their last report (this week) the scenario of a blow off in AUD is exactly what they want to see so they will not intervene. The Federal Reserve are showing no signs of intervening...

1.07 is a 1980's bottom and a 1982's high (horizontal levels). Until we are not there no sense to speak about bigger numbers, I think.

If you measuse the trend before the consolidation (15/10/2010) that was 1200+ pips. Then it can be 1.09.
  • #29,298
  • Apr 8, 2011 8:09am Apr 8, 2011 8:09am
Quoting ettrader
potential resistance levels until about 1.2 AUDUSD
I believe that on ultimate highs and lows, that you can draw fib ext and find likely areas where quotes will find potential new ground to pull up in.

In addition when constantly setting record highs / lows it is unusual to have 3 very strong consecutive weeks like we have just had. Usually people are reserved, hence any form of possible resistance, like a fib ext, seems to behave much more like a real resistance. That's what I believe...
  • #29,299
  • Apr 8, 2011 8:21am Apr 8, 2011 8:21am
Quoting w1nner
1.07 is a 1980's bottom and a 1982's high (horizontal levels). Until we are not there no sense to speak about bigger numbers, I think.

If you measuse the trend before the consolidation (15/10/2010) that was 1200+ pips. Then it can be 1.09.
Which broker gives you so old information?
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #29,300
  • Apr 8, 2011 8:22am Apr 8, 2011 8:22am
Quoting aquaart
I believe that on ultimate highs and lows, that you can draw fib ext and find likely areas where quotes will find potential new ground to pull up in.

In addition when constantly setting record highs / lows it is unusual to have 3 very strong consecutive weeks like we have just had. Usually people are reserved, hence any form of possible resistance, like a fib ext, seems to behave much more like a real resistance. That's what I believe...

Look the weekly chart at 08/2010 how many consecutive weeks there were.
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