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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #6,841
  • Apr 14, 2011 6:06am Apr 14, 2011 6:06am
Quoting pgd
GU seems to have broken UPwards from its indecision area.
a retrace to 6310/6300 (where it is right now) should give good long opportunities.

pl confirm if you agree with this reading.
We are below 6300 now. I might spot a decent level but always wait and see how pa reacts to that level.

At the mo pa seems to want to go lower and days open, pivot, 75 combo might get hit, we'll see.
  • #6,842
  • Apr 14, 2011 6:19am Apr 14, 2011 6:19am
Quoting pgd
GU seems to have broken UPwards from its indecision area.
a retrace to 6310/6300 (where it is right now) should give good long opportunities.

pl confirm if you agree with this reading.

I think this was too early - althought I was out at the time.

The UHV in that semi hammer was IMO a warning that profit takers / buyers were active, but VSA signals are "leading" and its taken another hour to get a possible turn off MR 1 / earlier support.

I bought in the bullish engulfing candle for a potential bounce into NY open.....TWT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: apr 14 gu 5m 1310.gif Size: 22 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,843
  • Apr 14, 2011 7:08am Apr 14, 2011 7:08am
Quoting Islander
I think this was too early - althought I was out at the time.

The UHV in that semi hammer was IMO a warning that profit takers / buyers were active, but VSA signals are "leading" and its taken another hour to get a possible turn off MR 1 / earlier support.

I bought in the bullish engulfing candle for a potential bounce into NY open.....TWT

That was quick - my target was the MR 2 / resistance / fib 50% confluence, hit in that HV shooting star.

A pull back to yesterday's high / R1 confluence gave another buy.....now let's see what the US traders do.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,844
  • Apr 14, 2011 7:32am Apr 14, 2011 7:32am
1.

bullish divergence, slow turn and entry above 6300.
entry: 1.6307
exit : 1.6325

2.

took the bull flag b/o that followed but bailed out for +5 when I noticed the bearish divergence.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20110414-gu-02.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #6,845
  • Apr 14, 2011 7:52am Apr 14, 2011 7:52am
Quoting pgd
1.

bullish divergence, slow turn and entry above 6300.
entry: 1.6307
exit : 1.6325

2.

took the bull flag b/o that followed but bailed out for +5 when I noticed the bearish divergence.
Nice trading http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif......I didnt get the second one. There, the wide ranged marubozo - the widest candle since the Asian Session - up to the 61.8% retrace - was IMO a warning to tighten your stop or consider closing.....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,846
  • Edited 8:13am Apr 14, 2011 8:02am | Edited 8:13am
Quoting Islander
Nice trading http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif......I didnt get the second one. There, the wide ranged marubozo - the widest candle since the Asian Session - up to the 61.8% retrace - was IMO a warning to tighten your stop or consider closing.....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Now the falling wedge b/o fuelled by hidden divergence.

entry: 1.6327

target: 1.6350

edit:

that last candle closed as a spinning top.
I'm out at 6340.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20110414-gu-03.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #6,847
  • Apr 14, 2011 8:05am Apr 14, 2011 8:05am
Quoting Islander
Nice trading http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif......I didnt get the second one. There, the wide ranged marubozo - the widest candle since the Asian Session - up to the 61.8% retrace - was IMO a warning to tighten your stop or consider closing.....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
thanks for sharing these little nuances.
very valuable...
  • #6,848
  • Apr 14, 2011 8:21am Apr 14, 2011 8:21am
Quoting Islander
I think this was too early - althought I was out at the time.

The UHV in that semi hammer was IMO a warning that profit takers / buyers were active, but VSA signals are "leading" and its taken another hour to get a possible turn off MR 1 / earlier support.

I bought in the bullish engulfing candle for a potential bounce into NY open.....TWT
yes, that uhv hammer was the warrning. the red candles that followed were on dwindling volumes. the turn was getting closer...

i love the way you take early entries without falling between your feet. yours, at 6297, was 10 pips earlier than mine, at 6307! wow!

cheers.
  • #6,849
  • Apr 14, 2011 8:42am Apr 14, 2011 8:42am
quick scalp for 10 pips

3 tops rising into 6350 with divergence, followed by IB b/o.
short at 6335
out at 6325
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,850
  • Edited 9:06am Apr 14, 2011 8:47am | Edited 9:06am
thanks for sharing these little nuances.
very valuable...you're welcome

i love the way you take early entries without falling between your feet. yours, at 6297, was 10 pips earlier than mine, at 6307! wow!........some days the entries really jump out at you - I guess that's what screen time does http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

BTW, that was a good € trade earlier http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif

I forgot to post this chart - I'm trying a different volume indy and its helping show me early alerts to potential swing turns.....the 5 MA of volume helps here - thanks NSK http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif - see the increasing vols around 12:00 showing the profit taking...... and then the HV spike down to the Monthly Pivot at 4364.......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: apr 14 eu 5m 1535.gif Size: 27 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,851
  • Apr 14, 2011 9:07am Apr 14, 2011 9:07am
watching GU bull flag.
might take the b/o.
  • #6,852
  • Apr 14, 2011 10:02am Apr 14, 2011 10:02am
Sorry I missed putting on the potential flag on my last chart......my candle size alert soon reminded me http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: apr 14 eu 5m 1700 cet.gif Size: 20 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,853
  • Apr 14, 2011 10:07am Apr 14, 2011 10:07am
Quoting Islander
I forgot to post this chart - I'm trying a different volume indy and its helping show me early alerts to potential swing turns.....the 5 MA of volume helps here - thanks NSK http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif - see the increasing vols around 12:00 showing the profit taking...... and then the HV spike down to the Monthly Pivot at 4364.......
Islander,

my charts have "Better Volume 1.4_TRO_MODIFIED_VERSION".
Isn't yours the same? If not, please post your indy here.
i've just left the ma period at the default value of 100. will try out ma5.

why do you say the increasing volumes around 12:00 show profit taking and not fresh positions?

thanks.
  • #6,854
  • Apr 14, 2011 11:24am Apr 14, 2011 11:24am
Quoting pgd
Islander,

my charts have "Better Volume 1.4_TRO_MODIFIED_VERSION".
Isn't yours the same? If not, please post your indy here.
i've just left the ma period at the default value of 100. will try out ma5.

why do you say the increasing volumes around 12:00 show profit taking and not fresh positions?


thanks.
I'm using Better Volume 1.4 - not TRO's version and I dont know what the difference is - I've only changed 3 colours and the MA setting.

OK - this will tale a little time as it involves VSA and AMT and how I interpret them......and this is still "work in progress" !!

Firstly, one principle of AMT is that the big players move price short term to give them the best entry and exit prices and that the commercials are mainly active at the extremes of the days action or profile.

Thus from mid FH onwards ~the 4500 level they were exiting any longs from the low volume Asian session and initiating fresh shorts.

The LH ~10am on my charts showed that there were no more buyers for them to sell to, so the fall started.

The 11:55 and 12:00 candles were narrower ranged, but with the highest volume of the session, so this could not have been fresh new selling, but existing shorts closing out to late less experienced traders who thought the down move would continue.

This exchange continued for an hour with the pros / clever traders closing out shorts and initiating fresh long trades thus absorbing all of the sell orerds around the 4400 level. When this had finished price had to drop to find / clear out any currently remaining short orders. This resulted in the high volume, wide ranged candle at 13:00 - which didnt follow thru, and the fall terminated in the 2 small red candles at the MP level of 4364 as the buyers took control and price began its move back upwrds to the top side of todays profile - actually halting - for now - at Tuesdays vol POC level of 4490....

Now I need a San Miguel!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,855
  • Apr 14, 2011 11:30am Apr 14, 2011 11:30am
bullflag b/o above pivot.

entry 1.4468
exit 1.4485 resistance area
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20110414-eu-05.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #6,856
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:29am Apr 15, 2011 1:29am
Islander,

r u long GU following the +div. & those 2 big hammers on M5 ?
  • #6,857
  • Apr 15, 2011 2:02am Apr 15, 2011 2:02am
Quoting pgd
Islander,

r u long GU following the +div. & those 2 big hammers on M5 ?
GM, yes, after the first one which was a high vol shake out type, I exited after the green marubozo had NFT and later became a tweezers.

I was also long € and lost a couple when the Moody's downgrade of Ireland hit the wires just after FO and hit my stop. I waited and then bought off the DP / 4450 / fib 38% confluence and made it back plus a bit http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,858
  • Apr 15, 2011 2:11am Apr 15, 2011 2:11am
Chart for cable trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: apr 15 gu 5m lo.gif Size: 17 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,859
  • Apr 15, 2011 2:27am Apr 15, 2011 2:27am
Quoting Islander
GM, yes, after the first one which was a high vol shake out type, I exited after the green marubozo had NFT and later became a tweezers.

I was also long € and lost a couple when the Moody's downgrade of Ireland hit the wires just after FO and hit my stop. I waited and then bought off the DP / 4450 / fib 38% confluence and made it back plus a bit http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif
got you!

when you say "no follow through" on a wide range candle, at what point during the next candle do you come to that conclusion OR do you have to wait for the next candle to close?
  • #6,860
  • Apr 15, 2011 2:48am Apr 15, 2011 2:48am
Quoting pgd
got you!

when you say "no follow through" on a wide range candle, at what point during the next candle do you come to that conclusion OR do you have to wait for the next candle to close?
During FH I'm looking to bank pips early as its often a "whippy" time and thus with a wider candle, I'll pull my trail up to 1/3 to 1/2 of the candle, that way the market decides, further up to the next level or close me out without giving too much back. Also, remember that around FO / LO I'm watching the 1 min chart too and there, the action was clearer.

Obviously the actual conclusion can only be after the candle's closed.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
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