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  • #420,341
  • Apr 12, 2011 7:58am Apr 12, 2011 7:58am
yeah I am risking tiny pips for big TP like 50 so, might wanna wait it run up 120 then short for 50. Since i kinda out from my Longs .... @ 4420 lol
  • #420,342
  • Apr 12, 2011 7:59am Apr 12, 2011 7:59am
Quoting cloggie
EU has moved 120 pips on average each day this year, why don't you start looking for opportunities to fullfill that range first before you start looking for profit taking levels as that is what countertrades are. Why would NY not want a fill of the range before they start taking profits, why would London not take it as far as they could before they start taking money of the table, just think about this and then think about why you would short a pair when it has not fullfilled its range and when NY is only just coming to the table. Couple that with...
Are you not allowing for the possibility of key-reversal day range play ? Isn't this a more likely scenario as the pair is so overbought ?
  • #420,343
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:00am Apr 12, 2011 8:00am
Quoting profx
Are you not allowing for the possibility of key-reversal day range play ? Isn't this a more likely scenario as the pair is so overbought ?
overbought conditions can stay that way for quite a long time...
  • #420,344
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:01am Apr 12, 2011 8:01am
Quoting gatorinla
4512.1 was a st one. it fell between the others.
seems like i should have been long
  • #420,345
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:01am Apr 12, 2011 8:01am
Quoting profx
Are you not allowing for the possibility of key-reversal day range play ? Isn't this a more likely scenario as the pair is so overbought ?

In currency trading I never ever look at overbought or oversold as it is entirely irrelevant unlike equities. Just to throw you a curveball, the yearly is not overbought and has plenty of room left.

Overbought only means that the rate of change is reducing, it does not tell you price is reversing.
  • #420,346
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:01am Apr 12, 2011 8:01am
Buy today never loss strong pressure comming
  • #420,347
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:04am Apr 12, 2011 8:04am
Quoting thelws
overbought conditions can stay that way for quite a long time...

Yup, a lot longer then 99% of the accounts here can handle.

It just plays to the psyche of all noobs here, it has gone up so much, it must come down anytime now, better put on a countertrade so I don't miss those 3 pips right from the top, they are so important you know.
  • #420,348
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:07am Apr 12, 2011 8:07am
Scalp mode here...Good luck all
  • #420,349
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:08am Apr 12, 2011 8:08am
Oil dropping like a rock
  • #420,350
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:09am Apr 12, 2011 8:09am
I do think we are right in the "sweet spot" where "old data" like the US trade balance that came in it still old enough (40 days) that it doesnt full refelect the impact of the hit the USD has taken.


As the "new data" from march and april begin to trickle in I think the data will begin to favor US inflation and lower trade deficits.
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  • #420,351
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:09am Apr 12, 2011 8:09am
Quoting Flynchenberg
Oil dropping like a rock

Saudi just announced demand is dropping. Supply driven, speculators are taking profits here based on the ME hysteria over the last few months, don't use it to judge risk for the next few days.

IF you are an oil trader, ignore this till you see a drop in supply that will give you the next leg.
  • #420,352
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:11am Apr 12, 2011 8:11am
Quoting cloggie
In currency trading I never ever look at overbought or oversold as it is entirely irrelevant unlike equities. Just to throw you a curveball, the yearly is not overbought and has plenty of room left.
Granted, currencies can remain o/bought/sold for much longer than say equities. But how do you gauge that the sentiment on the fundamentals has
shifted on-balance towards the opposing direction. I'm not sure what calculations one needs to perform to decide.
  • #420,353
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:12am Apr 12, 2011 8:12am
if helicopter sends trichet thank you emails each lately.
  • #420,354
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:12am Apr 12, 2011 8:12am
It is highly probable that we will pass through 1.4500 3 to 5 times before we head for 4600 or 4400 .Purely from my observations at the "00" numbers.
selling 20/30 above, buying 80/90 below works well sometimes for extended periods of time .
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #420,355
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:12am Apr 12, 2011 8:12am
Quoting gatorinla
#1 target for oils was 108.92
#2 is 105.69
we slipped below #1 (low 107.84) a bunch.. we didn't retrace yet after a "out of normal range drop". i got 7 red candles on the 4 h in a row. 7 in row is out of the norm..below/above 7 and its time to look for a retrace of some type. below 103.47 ect. its time to take a good look at usd.

96.71 .............oil nymex
time to watch..we got the bounce now... it went to 110.20 ... atm @ 108.33
#2 is a clue ect.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #420,356
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:12am Apr 12, 2011 8:12am
I love watching traders trying to explain why moves happen (risk aversion, crude oil retraces). I'll say it again: It's all dictated by past PA, today's move was set in stone a long long time ago and nothing that happened in the last 24/48/72 hours will change it (credit downgrades and tsunamis level events excluded).
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  • #420,357
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:14am Apr 12, 2011 8:14am
Quoting profx
Granted, currencies can remain o/bought/sold for much longer than say equities. But how do you gauge that the sentiment on the fundamentals has
shifted on-balance towards the opposing direction. I'm not sure what calculations one needs to perform to decide.

Start seeing overbought for what it really is, a reduction or plateauing of the rate of increase, not as an indication of price direction. As currency is traded as a pair, overbought only means it is moving up at a slower rate, it has no bearing on direction, you need to look at other things for that.
  • #420,358
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:14am Apr 12, 2011 8:14am
Quoting cloggie
Saudi just announced demand is dropping. Supply driven, speculators are taking profits here based on the ME hysteria over the last few months, don't use it to judge risk for the next few days.

IF you are an oil trader, ignore this till you see a drop in supply that will give you the next leg.
There was an article yesterday about how demand has dropped for 3 straight weeks... no link atm.
  • #420,359
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:15am Apr 12, 2011 8:15am
Quoting fldash
There was an article yesterday about how demand has dropped for 3 straight weeks... no link atm.

Saudi jsut confirmed a drop in supply on the wires. They are trying to keep the price up on dropping demand.
  • #420,360
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:18am Apr 12, 2011 8:18am
Quoting cloggie
Saudi jsut confirmed a drop in supply on the wires. They are trying to keep the price up on dropping demand.

What sense does this make?
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