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  • #420,281
  • Apr 12, 2011 5:56am Apr 12, 2011 5:56am
Quoting Jok
Thank you Sir. Really appreciated you have taken the time to explain all this, thanks a bunch. For Now, I will seat on the side and read through all the post for a better understanding. Thanks again Sir.

Trading currencies, especially this pair is all about seeing and judging the bigger picture. Currencies are a great vehicle, but they are a lot harder to trade on pure technicals then other instruments are. Plenty of pure tech traders here will say it is all in the charts, knowing the news/fundies/correlation and risk will make trading currencies a lot easier as you can see what is coming before it is in the charts. Being a sole tech trader puts you in a distinct disadvantage. I am not saying that some pure tech traders don't make money in this business, but they are rare. Currencies are driven by other factors more so then any other instrument, especially as it is a pair.

I have said it plenty of times before, eu can move in 6 directions and only a fundy/news/correlation/risk trader can see all of them.

Most newbies have no choice and have to start trading just the techs as they can't get their head around the rest. That puts them at a severe disadvantage and is one of the main reasons most don't make it in this business.
  • #420,282
  • Apr 12, 2011 6:00am Apr 12, 2011 6:00am
Quoting JohnFX_King
Hello.
In my opinion we are on top right now - time to sell.

Short at 1.4475

Good Luck

John
Dunno yet.... I am not comfort to go Long, but for the Short now, it is still too risky IMHO.
  • #420,283
  • Apr 12, 2011 6:03am Apr 12, 2011 6:03am
closed long @ 4470 for +70 pips, need to sleep for a few hours here.
  • #420,284
  • Apr 12, 2011 6:06am Apr 12, 2011 6:06am
Quoting hindustani
closed long @ 4470 for +70 pips, need to sleep for a few hours here.
eu is not able to sustain itself above week open, so decided to close the long, and there is no setup for a short for a few hours now, so will avoid trade till then.
  • #420,285
  • Apr 12, 2011 6:09am Apr 12, 2011 6:09am
Quoting Jok
Dunno yet.... I am not comfort to go Long, but for the Short now, it is still too risky IMHO.

Thanks for your opinion. Already closed with 11 pips profit.
  • #420,286
  • Apr 12, 2011 6:09am Apr 12, 2011 6:09am
Quoting cloggie
Trading currencies, especially this pair is all about seeing and judging the bigger picture. Currencies are a great vehicle, but they are a lot harder to trade on pure technicals then other instruments are. Plenty of pure tech traders here will say it is all in the charts, knowing the news/fundies/correlation and risk will make trading currencies a lot easier as you can see what is coming before it is in the charts. Being a sole tech trader puts you in a distinct disadvantage. I am not saying that some pure tech traders don't make money in this...

Good day, Cloggie!
Could you please explain the 6th direction?

As a nebie, I only know 5-ve of them: Up, Down, Stairs Up, Stairs Down, Side Moving.

Thank you.
  • #420,287
  • Apr 12, 2011 6:11am Apr 12, 2011 6:11am
Quoting JohnFX_King
Good Luck

Luck has absolutely nothing to do with making money. Basing your trades on a hunch and depending on luck will not sustain you in this business it just provides entertainment value in threads like this.

I just glanced at your stats and statistically your strategy will lose money when compounded, you hold onto losers on average 6 times longer then winners, and your average loss is greater then your wins are. Compounded a strategy like that can never be profitable over time. But like I always say, I couldn't care less and you can take it as you like.
  • #420,288
  • Apr 12, 2011 6:11am Apr 12, 2011 6:11am
opportunity to go short?
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  • #420,289
  • Apr 12, 2011 6:14am Apr 12, 2011 6:14am
Quoting cloggie
Good to see you are still around and haven't been driven off by the !d!ots and muppets here.
Same goes to you, thanks for your guidance, everytime you're around you put order in this thread and so much in my few months of this goodness of a confusing mess

Best regards and hope you come back soon from your next trip
  • #420,290
  • Apr 12, 2011 6:19am Apr 12, 2011 6:19am
Quoting cloggie
She is starting to form an intermediate top here, let's see if it plays out. Oil is holding right below 110 also. Like to see Swissy consolidate so we can get a bit of a short play on this pair. Gold holding below 1464 will give us a bit of euro focus before the CME opens.

Commodities and equities are topping out, changing the intraday bias towards risk aversion. Longs are no longer in play here. Correlation/risk setup is playing out perfectly here. Gold and Oil are topping out to the pip at the levels I was looking for 3 hours ago.

Would I short this right here right now? Not yet, I am not interested in 10-20 pip trades.
  • #420,291
  • Apr 12, 2011 6:19am Apr 12, 2011 6:19am
Quoting futurebless
I'm looking for another test of the daily pivot point at 1.4420 to enter a long position. Yellen is considered one of the most dovish members of the Fed and a strong supporter of quantitative easing.

Also, we are way too close to the major psych level 1.5000 to not touch it IMHO.
Stopped out at breakeven.

Related question, at what time do the daily pivot points change? The answer might affect how I trade them.
It seems that most of the bounces off pivot points happen in the middle of the night when I'm sleeping (I live in New York timezone.)
motivation
  • #420,292
  • Apr 12, 2011 6:22am Apr 12, 2011 6:22am
A sight worth waking up for. But projection shows possibility for return to 4377 I had same situation last week, I closed my longs and it never came down. So Holding till 4570 :-)
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Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #420,293
  • Apr 12, 2011 6:26am Apr 12, 2011 6:26am
Quoting cloggie
Trading currencies,..............

Most newbies have no choice and have to start trading just the techs as they can't get their head around the rest. That puts them at a severe disadvantage and is one of the main reasons most don't make it in this business.
Yes, still so much to learn...still a long way to go for me I guess. The Technical it self have taken me quite a few years to learn. Agree with you on the fact that having a better understanding on a cross market, fundies, commodities, will surely make trading forex a lot easier and like you said, one can see the currency direction much more clearer.

Apparently, Still so much to learn other than the Technical things.
  • #420,294
  • Apr 12, 2011 6:27am Apr 12, 2011 6:27am
Quoting Jok
Yes, still so much to learn...still a long way to go for me I guess. The Technical it self have taken me quite a few years to learn. Agree with you on the fact that having a better understanding on a cross market, fundies, commodities, will surely make trading forex a lot easier and like you said, one can see the currency direction much more clearer.

Apparently, Still so much to learn other than the Technical things.

Knowing what you don't know puts you in a distinct advantage to most here.
  • #420,295
  • Apr 12, 2011 6:27am Apr 12, 2011 6:27am
Quoting JohnFX_King
Hello.
In my opinion we are on top right now - time to sell.

Short at 1.4475

Good Luck

John
I agree - eur/usd upmove was caused by Us oil correction from steep downmove - but this downmove will continue 'til the end of April - monthly bollinger band is at 105,86 - wouldn't suprise me if oil retraces to 100 dollars / barel (that said i'm strong oil bull - but this would be same movement as 2 years ago when oil was going to 150.00 area). Therefore euro should retrace to at least 1,41.
  • #420,296
  • Apr 12, 2011 6:34am Apr 12, 2011 6:34am
Quoting cloggie
I have said it plenty of times before, eu can move in 6 directions and only a fundy/news/correlation/risk trader can see all of them.
Which of these am I? I don't use fundies, news, correlation or risk. I don't use indicators or a calculator, just bare charts and I can call every key move every day for weeks at a time. I'm an anomalous trader. :-)
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #420,297
  • Apr 12, 2011 6:35am Apr 12, 2011 6:35am
Quoting kocurko
hello,

so you are checking equities and commodities for some important patterns then you choose what to do in forex ? I understand this or not ?

thanks
John

I generally keep an eye on the main equities (es, DOW, DAX, FTSE, Nikkei) and the main commodities (WTI, Brent, Gold, Silver), the treasuries (T, Bund, Gilts, periphery) and correlated pairs during my trading day.
  • #420,298
  • Apr 12, 2011 6:36am Apr 12, 2011 6:36am
Quoting cloggie
Knowing what you don't know puts you in a distinct advantage to most here.
Really True...
  • #420,299
  • Apr 12, 2011 6:38am Apr 12, 2011 6:38am
Quoting cloggie
Commodities and equities are topping out, changing the intraday bias towards risk aversion. Longs are no longer in play here. Correlation/risk setup is playing out perfectly here. Gold and Oil are topping out to the pip at the levels I was looking for 3 hours ago.

Would I short this right here right now? Not yet, I am not interested in 10-20 pip trades.

Thanks for your input Cloggie. Were the seeds of the oil and gold rally obvious enough to get you in at the start of this EU rally around LO? Or does trading correlation in this way restrict you to taking only the middle of the move? Just trying to figure things out....

Cheers
  • #420,300
  • Apr 12, 2011 6:38am Apr 12, 2011 6:38am
I think Euro will remain strong over the next month and recover quickly from this risk aversion seen today. Does anyone agree that it will make 1.4650 before any change of trend is seen? Just wondering if many are still very bullish near term also?
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