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  • #420,081
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:27pm Apr 11, 2011 9:27pm
Quoting thelws
Because as it stands right now, all of us agree that there is no way to trade a retrace until it has already happened.
I sure didn't say that.
  • #420,082
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:30pm Apr 11, 2011 9:30pm
Quoting thelws

Hence I'm asking here if anyone knows a method or a strategy to trade retraces.
currency always go up or down depends fundamental news release or event, then retrace will happen depends upcoming fundamental reports forecast

if there is big news after previews news and if forecast is also good then previews retrace only down to 23.6% then create double top or next is 38.1, 50, at last stay more time at 61.8%. then this drama will start again.
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  • #420,083
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:35pm Apr 11, 2011 9:35pm
Quoting SunTrader
I sure didn't say that.
hehe then how do you do it?
  • #420,084
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:36pm Apr 11, 2011 9:36pm
Quoting thelws
Bro, maybe I'm not very clear in my question. Let me rephrase:

What you are saying - don't trade unless there is a left.
What I'm asking for is a way to determine where the new left will be created and make some profits by capturing that.

There is wisdom in your words when you say "don't trade unless tehre is a left". In fact, this is what I have been doing all these while because I cannot find a way to do otherwise.

Hence I'm asking here if anyone knows a method or a strategy to trade retraces. Because as it stands right now, all of us agree...
Well, let's back this up to when the Euro was still rising.

Euro rises with some bumps in the road up to it's new high. Bumps are being created from supply zones from earlier 'left' areas. This rise is now building your new left supply and demand area.

So now we hit a top, (Supply zone creates the current top from Jan 2010). On the way up, we have now created new zones. So now we set our short trades targeting demand zones.

Let's take H1 for example... I see multiple demand zones and multiple supply zones. We do look like we are clearing them but each one is providing a bounce.

Bottom of demand zones I see 1.4417, 1.4384, 1.4353 and a minor demand zone at 4392.

On our way down, we are also creating a new left should we bounce upwards, but you must note how we are constantly making lower swing highs and lows. Weak, yes, but point still in tact.

That was built off of the 1h chart.

4h chart is not giving many demand zones on our new left area. Just a straight power through. 4h lets us know we could be looking at 4348 and lower... but who knows, i don't try to predict. I just try and follow price action as it enters and leaves zones and trade to the next zone.

Does this make sense? I have had a few beers tonight... lol
  • #420,085
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:43pm Apr 11, 2011 9:43pm
Quoting thelws
anyone?
Wanted to anwer your question more than an hour ago but was in my office from where posting charts was not possible.

First is the general condtions and second is the historical supports and resistances.

You may like to check this chart. All lines are supports and resistances. PA (Price Action or Price) tends to follow these levels. Most of these levels are historical. But General Market Conditions take precedence over a chart.

Despite mastering both factors mentioned above, two more factors are very important. 1) How to trade swings, and 2) Money Management.

ps. Support resisting current retrace is very visible from this chart so is the resistance that halted its advance beyond 1.4500.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #420,086
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:13pm Apr 11, 2011 10:13pm
Let the games begin!!!!

-Chernobyl pt2
-US gov't shutdown looming
-Emerging markets shunning USD
-EU troubles
-2012 one inch closer.
  • #420,087
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:14pm Apr 11, 2011 10:14pm
weeeeeeeeeeeeee
  • #420,088
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:17pm Apr 11, 2011 10:17pm
Quoting swing 123
its never too late as long as you know the direction short taken 4445
what a great morning when you wake up and you have 40 pips in your pocket tp hit
  • #420,089
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:19pm Apr 11, 2011 10:19pm
Quoting swing 123
what a great morning when you wake up and you have 40 pips in your pocket tp hit
Take a look at GJ
  • #420,090
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:19pm Apr 11, 2011 10:19pm
Quoting swing 123
tp1 1.4405
yep that was tp1
  • #420,091
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:25pm Apr 11, 2011 10:25pm
Closed my longs....thinking this is going to tank
  • #420,092
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:28pm Apr 11, 2011 10:28pm
Quoting thelws
This has bugged me forever, so im finally going to ask this.

How do you know when the retrace has ended? Especially when there is no support or resistance to show you like eu is today?

I'd really like to know. can someone enlighten me?

Fibs? Then at what point of the fib are you expecting it to retrace? 61.8? 50? 38.2?

Does anyone have a strategy they use to capture retraces? Or do you just set a very big stop loss. It seems to me that it is impossible to even come close to predicting where a retrace will end. Am I right?
You do realize you're asking the $64 million dollar question, right? There are no rules and no guarantees, and you seem to be looking for one - there are endless reasons, risk events, black swans, fundamentals, etc, that can drive a pair in any direction. While 30-60 pips represents a SL for most, smart money can handle a few hundred pips and are always prepared for catastrophic events; a shake out will be used to force weak sellers out, and they will take over their positions.

A trader has to be able to gauge and read the market; a 'very big stoploss' as you mention can get an inexperienced trader into trouble - EURUSD has moved 800 pips down in many a week, often back-to-back weeks more than a few times; yens can move thousands of pips in a week. When one asks about a retrace, timeframe is key too - a retrace on a H1 is negligible on a daily or weekly chart.

Retraces up or down, and movement of the currency is what trading is all about. When's it done moving? EURUSD likes the even numbers, ie., 1.44, often the .1's and .9's are possible secondary stopping points. There are average daily ranges that can be looked to. Time of day within each session is often important in defining stopping points, as are previous day(s) highs and lows, DPPs, POCs and much else. Throw in trendlines, channel bounces and multitudes of fibs which only work because others are eyeing them and acting at that level.

Quoting thelws
Hence I'm asking here if anyone knows a method or a strategy to trade retraces. Because as it stands right now, all of us agree that there is no way to trade a retrace until it has already happened.
The strategy is to figure out where the likely area of bounces are, and enter there, hoping/planning for a big ride. Take partial profits, and if the remainder gets stopped out, repeat and rinse. I'd normally say 'hope that helps' but we know, it doesn't much - one has to ideally learn PA, and that takes lots of time.
  • #420,093
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:31pm Apr 11, 2011 10:31pm
s 4398
sl 4423
1st TP 4338
2nd TP 4314
We're all stories in the end. Just try to make it a good one.
  • #420,094
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:33pm Apr 11, 2011 10:33pm
sell sell sell.. TP. 4360
http://i.imgur.com/Rqhlx.gif
  • #420,095
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:34pm Apr 11, 2011 10:34pm
Quoting thelws
hehe then how do you do it?
I didn't say earlier but I also use Elliott Wave as well, and that is why I mentioned time retracements besides S/R levels, price retracements and patterns.

Anyway here is what I am watching for on 2 hour chart:

Fib zone (1.4448-1.4464) which lines up with previous swing high resistance now turned to support (?)

Fib time factors 2300 hrs EST Mon to 0500 hrs EST Tues

Pattern Wave 4 low.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #420,096
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:44pm Apr 11, 2011 10:44pm
Today's (Tuesday) range already equals Monday's narrow range.
  • #420,097
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:47pm Apr 11, 2011 10:47pm
Stock futures (S&P 500) are down 9 pts from Monday's close.
  • #420,098
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:53pm Apr 11, 2011 10:53pm
Quoting Beljevina
You do realize you're asking the $64 million dollar question, right? There are no rules and no guarantees, and you seem to be looking for one - there are endless reasons, risk events, black swans, fundamentals, etc, that can drive a pair in any direction. While 30-60 pips represents a SL for most, smart money can handle a few hundred pips and are always prepared for catastrophic events; a shake out will be used to force weak sellers out, and they will take over their positions.

A trader has to be able to gauge and read the market; a 'very big stoploss'...
Sir, your answer is very satisfying. +9000 internets to you.

I guess this uncertainty is something that a trader will have to live with for the rest of his trading career.

Even when one has familiarized himself with pa, in the end you can only hope and pray that you are right.

@suntrader: Yes I have that level on my chart as well. But my issue has never been speculating on areas of supply/demand. But rather when it is turning. I guess beljevina summed it up pretty much for me.
  • #420,099
  • Apr 11, 2011 11:00pm Apr 11, 2011 11:00pm
Quoting thelws
........ But rather when it is turning....
That is on my chart also.

Of course neither price nor time is for certain. Nothing is.
  • #420,100
  • Apr 11, 2011 11:21pm Apr 11, 2011 11:21pm
Quoting suthmo
I've been in the same trade since friday close sell 4472 target 4290 and long from there till 4575 for the big drop. Price still hovering high over my projection which shows we can still go to 4280 for next 4 hours. Then it's all up till 4575. If we don't go down to 4280 next support for today shows as 4377 in 4 hours I'll be looking to get long.
Have now closed short @4472 +78 And have entered long at 4394 SL 4367 Target is 4575 I had drifted off to sleep, it's a miracle I caught this. Would have been gutted to wake up to no position.
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
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