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AUD/USD

  • #29,301
  • Apr 8, 2011 9:38am Apr 8, 2011 9:38am
Quoting w1nner
Look the weekly chart at 08/2010 how many consecutive weeks there were.
I spose record highs could be taken in a number of ways, but at 08/2010, it was still below the ultimate highs from 2008 and late 2009. But that's just the way I read it.
  • #29,302
  • Apr 8, 2011 9:53am Apr 8, 2011 9:53am
I wonder if profit will be taken in the NY session on this friday afternoon? Lots of fight going on!!
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #29,303
  • Apr 8, 2011 10:04am Apr 8, 2011 10:04am
I am staying long. Using 4hr & daily...Can't beat this trend...slowly but surely we keep going up.
  • #29,304
  • Apr 8, 2011 10:25am Apr 8, 2011 10:25am
china has trade balance on the wknd...saturday!
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #29,305
  • Apr 8, 2011 11:02am Apr 8, 2011 11:02am
breaking downward on 5 minute triangle...12:01pm
I think i'll put in a small short here with a tight stop.
  • #29,306
  • Apr 8, 2011 1:00pm Apr 8, 2011 1:00pm
Quoting Alki
I am trying to get better idea in following GOLD. 1488-1514 could be the key.
Gold higher and higher and approaching to 1.488. If Aussie will touch 1.0650 level when gold would be at its indicated level, i will take a small risk to short and follow closely both behaviors. Problem is that i have not yet confirmation on timing, otherwise it would be all in, in a very agressive trade with a very tight stop loss.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #29,307
  • Apr 8, 2011 1:37pm Apr 8, 2011 1:37pm
I think the 5 min timeframe isn't much use in a strong uptrend like this. The weekly RSI can still accommodate another 300 pips up from here, not saying it will just it is possible. I use a daily bar pattern scan monitoring the HLC and fib pivot breaks, closes wrt to daily pivots from a database of 6 years data and this is still throwing up a buy signal. That will only change if we get a pull-back into the close. Pencil in 1.0590 for Monday high or therabouts based on the current level. Times like this just let the computer throw the data then you know it is not safe to short until you get a pattern where it is possible to set a stop.
  • #29,308
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:27pm Apr 8, 2011 3:27pm
New historic high for the AUDUSD reached, 1.056, incredible!

Gold price had a big effect on this move.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #29,309
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:46pm Apr 8, 2011 3:46pm
Quoting MapleLeaf
New historic high for the AUDUSD reached, 1.056, incredible!

Gold price had a big effect on this move.
New historic, no. I read somewhere that a high was at 1.495 at 1973. Please check the information, if correct or not. My brokers did not give more than 20-25 years curencies history.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #29,310
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:47pm Apr 8, 2011 3:47pm
Quoting Alki
Gold higher and higher and approaching to 1.488. If Aussie will touch 1.0650 level when gold would be at its indicated level, i will take a small risk to short and follow closely both behaviors. Problem is that i have not yet confirmation on timing, otherwise it would be all in, in a very agressive trade with a very tight stop loss.
Slowly slowly to 1.0650
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #29,311
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:50pm Apr 8, 2011 3:50pm
I think we've just hit 1.0600 AUDUSD already, 1.1 only days away at this rate
  • #29,312
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:59pm Apr 8, 2011 3:59pm
If 1.0650 level touched in a spike, fall will be very very great. I could be wrong, but i'm following closely.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #29,313
  • Apr 8, 2011 4:00pm Apr 8, 2011 4:00pm
I reckon the RBA didn't expect their currency to appreciate this much when they said they want a strong AUD. Sometimes you have to be careful what you ask for being a commodity based economy they can't cut rates from here to stop the speculators. Maybe they should try toning down their statements in future because last time their currency got this strong they suffered an awful downturn when the commodities market collapsed.
  • #29,314
  • Apr 8, 2011 4:07pm Apr 8, 2011 4:07pm
Quoting ettrader
I reckon the RBA didn't expect their currency to appreciate this much when they said they want a strong AUD. Sometimes you have to be careful what you ask for being a commodity based economy they can't cut rates from here to stop the speculators. Maybe they should try toning down their statements in future because last time their currency got this strong they suffered an awful downturn when the commodities market collapsed.
Between, AUD/JPY took aroud 1600 pips in 17 forex days.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #29,315
  • Apr 8, 2011 5:15pm Apr 8, 2011 5:15pm
Every mofo and his dog are tripping over each other to get on the carry trade bandwagon.
The day will come when the G-7 clique might rue their decision to crash the Yen. Let's see Sarkozy scream murder when EUR/JPY get to 1.7 again!

It's always a treat to wait and see the party crash when the time comes.
  • #29,316
  • Edited 7:26pm Apr 8, 2011 6:46pm | Edited 7:26pm
Quoting Alki
New historic, no. I read somewhere that a high was at 1.495 at 1973. Please check the information, if correct or not. My brokers did not give more than 20-25 years curencies history.
It was at 1.04 in 1982. Then a little pullback to 1.07 and a drop much lower. 1.07 was also a bottom in 1980. So next station is 1.07. If it breaks above, then 1.09 is the next key resistance which was a bottom in 1979. 1.09 also matches with the measuring technique I wrote in my previous post. These also must be Fib. levels. I read somewhere that they wanted to keep it on that high levels at that time.

On the daily close I expected exactly this, a very strong bull candle when eveyone believed the trend is slowing down and may turn (this is the way the big players make money). It followed the US Dollar which closed a very strong bear session. Also interesting that 1.055 was the top of the price channel if you draw it on 1h-4h chart (4h chart may look differently at another broker - edit: 1h chart is perfect to draw it). It seemed a nice scalp environment until it went above that channel today. When it breaks the minor trend lines it always emerges new more steppy minor trends. Unbelievable.

By now we all know that we should have buy the dips. But I will be away from this market until I am not sure what I am doing. I am not sure if it will enter a major correction at the end of this trend. Look the chart from 08/2010 to 10/2010. After an 1200+ pip trend it was only a 23.6% correction and went higher. I suspect it may be a similar situation. Except if RBA intervenes Edit: I am also not sure that it will drop at an unexpected moment. Unfair game of big players..
  • #29,317
  • Apr 8, 2011 7:11pm Apr 8, 2011 7:11pm
It looks the next station for US Dollar index is 74.15.
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  • #29,318
  • Apr 8, 2011 9:20pm Apr 8, 2011 9:20pm
Quoting aquaart
I spose record highs could be taken in a number of ways, but at 08/2010, it was still below the ultimate highs from 2008 and late 2009. But that's just the way I read it.
I think by the time the recession in 2008 was over. From 10/2010 to 03/2011 was a nice narrowing channel sideways market. This channel was broken down on 10/03/2011. The big drop on 15-16/03/2011 confirmed it strongly. It broke that channel down, suggested the trend is tired and it seemed for me that next days are only a pullback before a bigger drop. This situation was very much misleading for me. I think this was a trap that big players could buy for a better price..
  • #29,319
  • Apr 8, 2011 10:16pm Apr 8, 2011 10:16pm
Does anyone know about a free daily SSI report somewhere?
  • #29,320
  • Edited 11:31pm Apr 8, 2011 11:15pm | Edited 11:31pm
Quoting w1nner
From 10/2010 to 03/2011 was a nice narrowing channel sideways market. This channel was broken down on 10/03/2011.
The big drop on 15-16/03/2011 confirmed it strongly.
That I believe is true except, looking at the weekly chart shows that week was a rejection of the lows in that ranging market.
This confirms an overall upward trend to be continuing. So putting the two together means that an upward trend is continuing but the next resistance may be where the bulls end.


Quoting w1nner
This situation was very much misleading for me.
I find that trend lines can be misleading even though they obviously work, and so I use highs and lows as the major contributor to my own analysis.

But in the absence of many highs and lows trendlines are highly valuable. With that in mind, the AUD will pull back at the beginning of next week as longish upper shadow combined with a longterm trendline show rejection at this present level is likely to induce a pullback (maybe a significant one).
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