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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #6,741
  • Apr 8, 2011 1:58am Apr 8, 2011 1:58am
Hi PGD - just a quick comment whilst we digest the overnight move on dollar weakness during the stalled budget negotiations - be prepared for more fast moves as rumours and news come out http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

As we never know which SS or pivot level will get respected, I find that adding the S&R levels to highlight recent turns really helps.....

Also, along with the O/S CII with divergence, volume gave us a heads up that buyers were entering - VSA is all about what happens several candles before a turn - here, look at the high vol graveyard doji 6 candles before the actual turn.

I see a Potential Buy Stop a pip + spread above the green line at BS 1, after the wider maruboso failed to follow thru, ditto at PBS 2 and finally in after PBS 3 is hit......OR wait for the HL and break & turn of MA at PBS 4.
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,742
  • Apr 8, 2011 2:49am Apr 8, 2011 2:49am
As usual, I'm down to the 1 min charts for FO / LO and again the potential entries are easily seen.

The first spike above the old resistance at 6400 was immediatly rejected with the LH off the R2 level setting up a sell down to MR2. Then a buy that was a wash, but the old support level held and the HL ~MR2 was a great buy for a 40+ pip run up to above MR3.

As soon as the green candles stopped, exit and sell the MR3 for a pull back towards the 00 - actually it stopped at the FH high, so I took what was offered http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,743
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:03am Apr 8, 2011 3:03am
08:47 UK time, a LH, so sell MR 3 again and wait to see how far it goes by trailing my stop behind each solid red 1 min candle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,744
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:14am Apr 8, 2011 3:14am
Quoting Islander
08:47 UK time, a LH, so sell MR 3 again and wait to see how far it goes by trailing my stop behind each solid red 1 min candle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

This one ran down to under R2 before my trail closed at +23 and I'm finished for today.......this was a 100 pip session
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,745
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:17am Apr 8, 2011 3:17am
updated chart for this morning's action.....now I'm a POET
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,746
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:40am Apr 8, 2011 3:40am
Quoting dan89
Hey EV i was wondering if you could explain a little more about the distance between the MAs and movement into the MAs ?

Dan
If you look at any chart with a fairly good trend, you'll usually find that the MA's will spread apart, indicating that it's a healthy trend that should continue. The faster one will tend to meander a little, whilst the slower one will just keep on generally reflecting the present trend. If price pulls back, I like to see it actually touch the fast MA, or enter the MA zone, before forming a candlestick reversal pattern. If price does enter the zone, and the MA's are showing no sign of narrowing then there's a strong possibility of a pattern and a trend continuance. There are times when, as price pulls back, the MA's narrow considerably, sometimes to the point of touching. I've found that, a lot of the time, this forms a very strong support or resistance and price literally bounces of this confluence, usually with a nice reversal pattern giving one a very clear heads-up.
However, price will, on occasion, totally ignore the MA's and bust right through both of them. These are occasions when it's wise to sit on your hands, Dan, and wait to to see what price is going to do next.
These are just my observations, and others may see things differently. Really, it's up to the individual trader to watch and study and form his own conclusions.
Hope all this helps you.
  • #6,747
  • Apr 8, 2011 4:49am Apr 8, 2011 4:49am
Quoting Islander
08:47 UK time, a LH, so sell MR 3 again and wait to see how far it goes by trailing my stop behind each solid red 1 min candle http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
The old telepathy is unfailing...I took exactly the same trade at the very same minute, and closed at the same time too!

Today was a good session... And well done to you
  • #6,748
  • Apr 8, 2011 7:23am Apr 8, 2011 7:23am
Quoting Islander
...... and again the potential entries are easily seen.
easily seen...lol...for you and Medici

I still have another 8,000 hours to go to see what you guys see automatically

Thanks for the detailed charts and explanations as always
  • #6,749
  • Edited 10:03am Apr 8, 2011 8:32am | Edited 10:03am
took the double bottom off 1.6350.

entry 1.6359
exit 1.6382 just short of mR2 (too early, perhaps).

Islander,

Is this how you would have taken it?

please comment.

Thanks.
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  • #6,750
  • Apr 8, 2011 9:18am Apr 8, 2011 9:18am
It's been a lovely afternoon today. I've been busy doing other stuff, but hopefully some people here managed to get some of these easy pips.

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It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #6,751
  • Edited 10:57am Apr 8, 2011 10:32am | Edited 10:57am
Islander,

after a series of long upper wicks ending with divergence and rejection of 6400, I took the marked 2b short below mR2, entry 1.6382 targeting R1.

It took an hour's fretting before it sustained in profit.

was this correctly taken?

thanks.
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  • #6,752
  • Apr 8, 2011 12:01pm Apr 8, 2011 12:01pm
Quoting eyevoltage
If you look at any chart with a fairly good trend, you'll usually find that the MA's will spread apart, indicating that it's a healthy trend that should continue. The faster one will tend to meander a little, whilst the slower one will just keep on generally reflecting the present trend. If price pulls back, I like to see it actually touch the fast MA, or enter the MA zone, before forming a candlestick reversal pattern. If price does enter the zone, and the MA's are showing no sign of narrowing then there's a strong possibility of a pattern and...
Really, it's up to the individual trader to watch and study and form his own conclusions.

Exactly, as I've commented many times before, we all see / read the charts differently and so its important to develop our own trading rules to fit our own personality - there's no "one size fits all" - although Medici and I do usually take very similar trades - ours are not the only way to take pips out of the early European session - as EV, Vantage and others frequently demonstrate....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,753
  • Edited 12:32pm Apr 8, 2011 12:06pm | Edited 12:32pm
Quoting medici
The old telepathy is unfailing...I took exactly the same trade at the very same minute, and closed at the same time too!

Today was a good session... And well done to you
LOL - I guessed you'd be on board too just shows how clear the signals were to both of us - here's to a great weekend - mine started immediatly after my earlier post, now I'm reaching for the aftersun http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,754
  • Apr 8, 2011 12:09pm Apr 8, 2011 12:09pm
Quoting Sakk
easily seen...lol...for you and Medici

I still have another 8,000 hours to go to see what you guys see automatically

Thanks for the detailed charts and explanations as always
you're welcome - I'm glad my posts etc are helpful and may reduce that 8K hours.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,755
  • Apr 8, 2011 12:13pm Apr 8, 2011 12:13pm
Quoting pgd
took the double bottom off 1.6350.

entry 1.6359
exit 1.6382 just short of mR2 (too early, perhaps).

Islander,

Is this how you would have taken it?

please comment.

Thanks.
Your entry was fine, but - looking quickly - I dont see your exit strategy
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,756
  • Edited 12:33pm Apr 8, 2011 12:20pm | Edited 12:33pm
Quoting pgd
Islander,

after a series of long upper wicks ending with divergence and rejection of 6400, I took the marked 2b short below mR2, entry 1.6382 targeting R1.

It took an hour's fretting before it sustained in profit.

was this correctly taken?

thanks.

Again, nice entry, but after waiting till late on a Friday afternoon - IMO not a good time for new trades - I would be looking to trail a stop into 5pm UK time as the possibility of longs closing out before the weekend was IMO high......either way, good pips.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,757
  • Apr 8, 2011 12:33pm Apr 8, 2011 12:33pm
Quoting Dhb
It's been a lovely afternoon today. I've been busy doing other stuff, but hopefully some people here managed to get some of these easy pips.

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I was busy with other things also, Dhb, but it looks like you've nailed this method very easily. Or this method as I see it. We all have our own way of taking acumen's original plan and adapting it to make it our own.

Some nice easy pips on offer there, Dhb, and nicely spotted.
  • #6,758
  • Apr 8, 2011 2:13pm Apr 8, 2011 2:13pm
Thank you very much for your kind words, EV.

Your interpretation of Acumen's plan has a lot of similarities with Vantage's Higher Low, Lower High method, which has been one of the major influences on own way of approaching trading. Everybody has their own particular way of looking at the markets, but really, there are a lot of similarities between a lot of them. They all boil down to some form of pullback/trend trading in the end.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #6,759
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:57pm Apr 8, 2011 3:57pm
Quoting Islander
Your entry was fine, but - looking quickly - I dont see your exit strategy
oh! i'd just targeted a couple of pips short of mR2.
any suggetions on how i might have refined the exit?
  • #6,760
  • Apr 9, 2011 3:51am Apr 9, 2011 3:51am
Quoting Islander
Again, nice entry, but after waiting till late on a Friday afternoon - IMO not a good time for new trades - I would be looking to trail a stop into 5pm UK time as the possibility of longs closing out before the weekend was IMO high......either way, good pips.....
I'd like to express a different point of view. The reason for the hour long fretting was that the trade was entered too early. My own criterion for that is to not trade against the slope of the attached MA unless price is far away from it. In your chart, the entry is also against the slope of your MAs.

And while Friday afternoon is usually not the best time to trade, there may still be opportunities around the 4pm London fix, when price often changes direction. So also yesterday, and a good entry would have been at the close of the shooting star, i.e. at exactly 4pm, or even better 25 minutes later.
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