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  • #419,121
  • Apr 7, 2011 6:59pm Apr 7, 2011 6:59pm
Quoting Citiboy
Apparently its impossible for the euro to go down.
rates were already figured in
  • #419,122
  • Apr 7, 2011 7:02pm Apr 7, 2011 7:02pm
My question is that in January everyone and their mother was selling the hell outa this thing on any whiff of portugal bailout possibility. Now nobody gives two fxcks because they think JCT will raise to 2.25% by january....which is also completely IDIOTIC.


JCT- We did not decide this was the start of a series of rate hikes.



Market- OMFG that = more rate hikes!!! buy buy buy!!!
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #419,123
  • Apr 7, 2011 7:09pm Apr 7, 2011 7:09pm
Quoting Citiboy
My question is that in January everyone and their mother was selling the hell outa this thing on any whiff of portugal bailout possibility. Now nobody gives two fxcks because they think JCT will raise to 2.25% by january....which is also completely IDIOTIC.


JCT- We did not decide this was the start of a series of rate hikes.



Market- OMFG that = more rate hikes!!! buy buy buy!!!
i think theres a higher chance HE WILL hike rates but how frequent will he do it and to what extent is the matter....
The last time he hiked rate then decrease it back in 2008 put the Euro economy where it is today... sooo lets see...
as far as speculators concerned if rate hike's not off the table theres till opportunity to long the EURO, however im very doubtful with the market, i have to say EURUSD not my favorite to trade, but AUDUSD on the other hand... as long as gold rises i make more longing that baby...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #419,124
  • Apr 7, 2011 7:16pm Apr 7, 2011 7:16pm
I understand the market is expecting a slew of rate hikes simply because "thats what JCT did last time"...but this is CLEARY a different situation.


I had high hops for that huge down trendline on the monthly chart but i guess we're gonna blow right thought that if there is no sell off tomorrow.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #419,125
  • Apr 7, 2011 7:19pm Apr 7, 2011 7:19pm
Quoting SunTrader
I know, some call it the dismal science but what else are you going to call 1 + 1 = 2 besides math.

Trichet is dovish, not hawkish. Hmm based on what? Everything I've seen for years says the opposite.

And decrease rates right after raising. Not a chance.

He raised it .25 Dropping back down that amount won't mean d...

You can't be serious with this .... stuff.
i read his post and thought... wow... this is absurd. either way... you have 2 cbs that aren't ready to to raise rates and 1 that is. the one that is has the majority of it's players about the collapse. the eu doesn't have inflation. it's a bogus play.
  • #419,126
  • Apr 7, 2011 7:22pm Apr 7, 2011 7:22pm
Quoting Citiboy
I understand the market is expecting a slew of rate hikes simply because "thats what JCT did last time"...but this is CLEARY a different situation.


I had high hops for that huge down trendline on the monthly chart but i guess we're gonna blow right thought that if there is no sell off tomorrow.
the banks are trying to prop this pos up so they keep the bullish house of cards going. the nyc guys tell me they will sell there house at .4450. they said it will be the easiest money they every make.
  • #419,127
  • Apr 7, 2011 7:26pm Apr 7, 2011 7:26pm
Quoting Citiboy
I understand the market is expecting a slew of rate hikes simply because "thats what JCT did last time"...but this is CLEARY a different situation.


I had high hops for that huge down trendline on the monthly chart but i guess we're gonna blow right thought that if there is no sell off tomorrow.
Dude the Huge down trendline on EURUSD on the Mth chart just looks scary simply because Euro is a young currency compare to many other currency... and another drop in the Mth chart would sort of mean the death of Euro... look how badly its been talked that EURO would die when EURUSD was near 1.25 areas...
Another issue is right now Euro Artificially slower decline while USD high speed decline.. so that should mean your monthly chart bear trend gets broken...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #419,128
  • Apr 7, 2011 7:30pm Apr 7, 2011 7:30pm
I just dont buy this shit. It cant possibly this easy for the USD to be written off...


Its always "all good" until one day leading up to the end of QE somebody starts selling...


This entire rally....stocks....risk currencies...commodities is almost completely based off QE2 and QE1. It only takes one Bernanke comment or one surprise CPI to reverse this entire thing.


The Dollar is only low because the Fed wants it low. Once the reality of the global situations overcomes everyone hard on for risk trying to beat the ridiculous benchmark performance of the S&P...it will all come tumbling down.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #419,129
  • Apr 7, 2011 7:31pm Apr 7, 2011 7:31pm
Right if today is another Stop hunting day right before market close where they balance books...
This would be interesting.
EUR/JPY: Heavy bids around 120.00/30; solid offers 122.25/35, stops above 122.70
USD/JPY: Heavy offers still in play 85.60/86.00;
EUR/USD: Heavy bids seen around 1.4200; stops getting heavy above 1.4375; heavy sell orders 1.4400/10
www.forexlive.com

for days EURUSD has been hunting for stops, lets see if today would be another likely day... if it does then 1.4375 in sight
Knowing where the Stops are is already winning half the battle
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #419,130
  • Apr 7, 2011 7:35pm Apr 7, 2011 7:35pm
Quoting Citiboy
I just dont buy this shit. It cant possibly this easy for the USD to be written off...


Its always "all good" until one day leading up to the end of QE somebody starts selling...


This entire rally....stocks....risk currencies...commodities is almost completely based off QE2 and QE1. It only takes one Bernanke comment or one surprise CPI to reverse this entire thing.


The Dollar is only low because the Fed wants it low. Once the reality of the global situations overcomes everyone hard on for risk trying to beat the ridiculous benchmark...
You're the one sounding weird now.. the FED want the Dollar low?? hasnt the fed realised they got a huge National debt on their heads?? and that the world is losing confidence on them?? and they want to depreciate their value?? buddy... if they depreciate further the will struggle in debt repayment.... the Dollar is going to becoming more and more worthless and debt will become more and more expensive... the Fed better stop what they're doing... thats why the republicans were all AGAINST anymore QE because QE is literally Printing money where printing money depreciates the value of the currency... Tada... everything explained and yes USA has a DARK DARK future...

And yes here we go... I am a HUGE DOLLAR BEAR and a TINY EURO CUB and an POUND Stag

Another Statistics why an interest rate would be a good thing for the EUROZONE...
the entire PIGS counts only 17% of the ECB weighting where Germany is 38%... if Germany wants to control inflation for their own growth, their own growth overpowers stupid PIGS debt issue...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #419,131
  • Apr 7, 2011 7:45pm Apr 7, 2011 7:45pm
Lower Dollar= Better Prospects for USA Exports... Only until inflation gets so bad that its counter productive.

The entire rally is COMPLETELY based off QE and rate hikes. Last year less than a month after QE1 ended the Dollar was skyrocketing and stocks and commodities were plunging during the Euro Debt crisis.


the way the Euro performs now you'd think they had Microsofts balance sheet or something. They ONLY have 250 bn Euros to bail out countries...over 100bn of that is about to go to Portugal...the permanent euro700bn bailout fund doesn't go into effect until 2013.

So hypothetically if Spain blows at ANY POINT within the next year and half, which is far more likely AFTER QE2 ends...the Eurozone DOES NOT HAVE THE $$$ TO BAILOUT SPAIN. They got 1.2 trillion euros in debt...

Keep hiking rates Trichet...You bulls keep on buying...pump it to 1.50 for me. This is going to be the housing bubble all over again, a set of rate hikes slowly blows up balance sheets.

If the fed starts getting tough on rates this whole trend will unravel QUICKLY and people will rush to exit and the global mini asset bubble pops again.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #419,132
  • Apr 7, 2011 7:50pm Apr 7, 2011 7:50pm
Quoting bguguen
the entire PIGS counts only 17% of the ECB weighting where Germany is 38%... if Germany wants to control inflation for their own growth, their own growth overpowers stupid PIGS debt issue...
The only problem with this stat is that the Eurozone is an interconnected clusterfxuk of debt. If all the PIIGS end up having to restructure that would undoubtedly take down the rest of the EZ with it.


These countries have trillions and trillions loaned to EACHOTHER based on faith. Whats more, the Euro has only existed for 12 years, during periods of histroically low interest rates. So who is to say its even plausible to operate when interest rates correct in the long term, I mean above 6-10%. If they have to keep hiking france and italy will eventually blow up as well.

At least the US can Print away its debt
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #419,133
  • Apr 7, 2011 7:52pm Apr 7, 2011 7:52pm
Quoting PipPipPip
peter north needs some viagra.
This med better hold up.
  • #419,134
  • Apr 7, 2011 7:56pm Apr 7, 2011 7:56pm
Quoting PipPipPip
This med better hold up.
Took the blue pill, not the red one, yeah?
  • #419,135
  • Apr 7, 2011 7:57pm Apr 7, 2011 7:57pm
Quoting Citiboy
Lower Dollar= Better Prospects for USA Exports... Only until inflation gets so bad that its counter productive.

The entire rally is COMPLETELY based off QE and rate hikes. Last year less than a month after QE1 ended the Dollar was skyrocketing and stocks and commodities were plunging during the Euro Debt crisis.


the way the Euro performs now you'd think they had Microsofts balance sheet or something. They ONLY have 250 bn Euros to bail out countries...over 100bn of that is about to go to Portugal...the permanent euro700bn bailout fund doesn't...
You do need to realise the fact that China slowly moving away from US to supporting EUROPE.... and yea well the american economy is dead what makes you think the US economy export would become attractive if US dollar is low?? look at your housing market, the Domestic Consumption in US is terrible to a point even foreign coutries are avoiding to invest in US now adays... also heres the biggest laugh, government shut down, last time that happened was what 10-20 years ago?? when EURO was still a baby growing against the dollar. it sure feel like it if you want to look at the the EURUSD int he long term, heres the problem with US the Economic system is bad... terrible, too concerned in unemployment leading to huge government interventions to keep the economy running rather than to explore long term methods for growth and right now US is in trouble because of the lack in long term growth in sight...
Europe and US is dying both, but as of today US is dying faster than the Euro, and ummm no this down move is not only because of QE, QE is literally a result of what happend in the Housing bubble burst and the big debt they have...
Put your facts right, 2008 Housing market collapse, Bank structure tumbles 2009 Government intervention through QEs, soooo yea its actually weak US economy causing all this drop in Dollar... If QE is supposed to ANYTHING it would have Droped the Dollar value in a short period of time say 1 quater and there should be a significant reversal also known as the J-Curve move often seen in classic government intervention... SO its Bye Bye US if the dollar keeps tanking...

the dollar is less and less strong purchase of raw materials for their production where they export their final products is also increasing... dire dire situation in US indeed.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #419,136
  • Apr 7, 2011 8:02pm Apr 7, 2011 8:02pm
Heres a question for you. Lets say there is a global financial crisis with the next 18 months that will likely result from either


A. Chinese banking crisis.

or

B. Spain debt crisis.

or

C. Both


What currency do you buy?
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #419,137
  • Apr 7, 2011 8:04pm Apr 7, 2011 8:04pm
Quoting Citiboy
Heres a question for you. Lets say there is a global financial crisis with the next 18 months that will likely result from either


A. Chinese banking crisis.

or

B. Spain debt crisis.

or

C. Both


What currency do you buy?
CHF and Gold ! defo not dollar nor euro ... AUD hmmm not so sure bout that guy because China's major importer of Australian oil.
Curious though.. why would china have a banking crisis?? Inflation's the concern in china for the time being...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #419,138
  • Apr 7, 2011 8:05pm Apr 7, 2011 8:05pm
buy signal is on....make your analysis for a buy signal
Time Is Money
  • #419,139
  • Apr 7, 2011 8:05pm Apr 7, 2011 8:05pm
Quoting bguguen
... if he was hawkish and saw inflation a yea im willing to take in other people's comments but try not to insult me, i am very very interested to know what people think .....
Try again. Trichet raising rates right now (even if only 0.25 as a first step) is hawkish with all the problems of the EU outside of Germany.

As well as he was continuously ahead of the Fed when rates were rising and continuously behind the Fed when rates were dropping in the past.

It is not even a question so if you are insulted it is because your opinion does not match the facts.

Otherwise show me the facts that do.
  • #419,140
  • Apr 7, 2011 8:11pm Apr 7, 2011 8:11pm
Quoting abajiga
buy signal is on....make your analysis for a buy signal
This will roar up!
Time Is Money
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