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AUD/USD

  • #29,221
  • Apr 6, 2011 7:44pm Apr 6, 2011 7:44pm
Quoting pdtpatrick
AUD moves with the likes of Gold and Copper which is why is it called a commodity currency just like Crude oil and CAD (Canadian $) move together. Currently you have global inflation and since the value of the dollar continues to depreciate, you'd rather hold something that gives you a higher percentage return so you'll then look at the likes of AUD which gives you 4.75% vs 0.25% on the dollar. On top of that, their economy is better footed right now compared to our ballooning debt in the U.S. The China demand kept copper up which helped AUD, then...
Well I dont think this has any fundamental play whatsoever.
The buyers have been sovereigns and CB's.

Asian CB's have been actively trying to weaken their ccy's as USD weakness prevails. So rather than buying USD they opted for Ccy's like AUD NZD and Euro higher yields..
When these guys unload .. Im hoping to be riding their waves..
  • #29,222
  • Apr 6, 2011 7:47pm Apr 6, 2011 7:47pm
Entered long at 1.0296. :ooking at Tp at 1.05 before selling mine. Looking good now. News will be good for the currency too i hope.
  • #29,223
  • Apr 6, 2011 8:19pm Apr 6, 2011 8:19pm
This employment news might provide a good scalping opportunity to the downside providing that the number is negative... I will not go long at these levels... whatever happens
  • #29,224
  • Apr 6, 2011 8:35pm Apr 6, 2011 8:35pm
More short squeezing .. sheesh. Now if only JPY data doesn't shock people.. look out for AUDJPY to pop.

http://i55.tinypic.com/8vtgko.png
  • #29,225
  • Apr 6, 2011 8:38pm Apr 6, 2011 8:38pm
JUMP ON THE AUD BABY!!! GOING TO 1.05 and to 1.06!! this is what happened to the CAD back in 2007...when it went to 1.10 in one week!! GET ON BOARD BABY!!
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #29,226
  • Apr 6, 2011 8:43pm Apr 6, 2011 8:43pm
Selling my aud by 1.048 or .049 then putting a sell.. A bit too high for the aussie to go and it gonna hurt the economy real soon. had a nice run tho..
  • #29,227
  • Apr 6, 2011 8:47pm Apr 6, 2011 8:47pm
Quoting pdtpatrick
AUD moves with the likes of Gold and Copper which is why is it called a commodity currency just like Crude oil and CAD (Canadian $) move together. Currently you have global inflation and since the value of the dollar continues to depreciate, you'd rather hold something that gives you a higher percentage return so you'll then look at the likes of AUD which gives you 4.75% vs 0.25% on the dollar. On top of that, their economy is better footed right now compared to our ballooning debt in the U.S. The China demand kept copper up which helped AUD, then...

Thanks for the long and exhaustive answer. If you look at the US Dollar Index for the last 15 days and if you compare it with the AUDUSD chart AUDUSD has a positive deviation (for this 15-day period) from the US Dollar. So even if the US Dollar remains the same it could weaken a lot. If you look at the chart back for some months (from where you draw the line connecting the tops) these moves were balanced and logical. Now this move is very sharp, extended without a decent correction and this is an 1982 high. And I also don't think that is is good for the export. I have more emphasis on horizontal lines than angled ones.

Now the sheep pushed the price higher on news... no comment.
  • #29,228
  • Apr 6, 2011 8:51pm Apr 6, 2011 8:51pm
Quoting w1nner
Thanks for the long and exhaustive answer. If you look at the US Dollar Index for the last 15 days and if you compare it with the AUDUSD chart AUDUSD has a positive deviation (for this 15-day period) from the US Dollar. So even if the US Dollar remains the same it could weaken a lot. If you look at the chart back for some months (from where you draw the line connecting the tops) these moves were balanced and logical. Now this move is very sharp, extended without a decent correction and this is an 1982 high. And I also don't think that is is good...
We need to see the blow off.. Perhaps 1.0500-30 area.. to get a potential exhaustive stop loss extravaganza before lower
  • #29,229
  • Apr 6, 2011 9:07pm Apr 6, 2011 9:07pm
Quoting lasty
We need to see the blow off.. Perhaps 1.0500-30 area.. to get a potential exhaustive stop loss extravaganza before lower
I do not see any sign of weakening. See the daily, weekly or monthly charts how strong sessions are the previous ones. And see the period between 08/2010 to 10/2010 was 1200+ pips with similar rising angle without significant corrections.. The exception it is a 1982's high. I have lost a huge on it (almost an entire account), I was waiting for a correction for better exit point but there was instead the 'sheep' effect on the news...
  • #29,230
  • Apr 6, 2011 9:17pm Apr 6, 2011 9:17pm
Quoting w1nner
I do not see any sign of weakening. See the daily, weekly or monthly charts how strong sessions are the previous ones. And see the period between 08/2010 to 10/2010 was 1200+ pips with similar rising angle without significant corrections.. The exception it is a 1982's high. I have lost a huge on it (almost an entire account), I was waiting for a correction for better exit point but there was instead the 'sheep' effect on the news...
Long term yes.. short term we need a correction but that will come when everyone thinks higher. 1.05 breach will get them all bullish and BOOM ! blow off and then a sell...
  • #29,231
  • Apr 6, 2011 9:24pm Apr 6, 2011 9:24pm
Quoting lasty
Long term yes.. short term we need a correction but that will come when everyone thinks higher. 1.05 breach will get them all bullish and BOOM ! blow off and then a sell...
Why exactly 1.05?
  • #29,232
  • Apr 6, 2011 9:28pm Apr 6, 2011 9:28pm
Quoting ely
Short 2 good batches at 1.0412
Sanks
Quoting ely
Sanks.
Added 1.0431
Attached Image
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #29,233
  • Apr 6, 2011 9:33pm Apr 6, 2011 9:33pm
what was the reason for that insane AUDUSD increase ?
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #29,234
  • Apr 6, 2011 9:34pm Apr 6, 2011 9:34pm
nevermind, it was the Employment Change NEWS.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #29,235
  • Apr 6, 2011 9:35pm Apr 6, 2011 9:35pm
Quoting MapleLeaf
what was the reason for that insane AUDUSD increase ?
good employment figures
  • #29,236
  • Apr 6, 2011 9:37pm Apr 6, 2011 9:37pm
Unemployment fell to 4.9% and 37k more jobs.

I'll short when it reaches 1.50, not 1.05 haha. There is just too many jobs and alot of ppl under 30s earning 150k salaries.
  • #29,237
  • Apr 6, 2011 9:39pm Apr 6, 2011 9:39pm
Quoting lasty
Long term yes.. short term we need a correction but that will come when everyone thinks higher. 1.05 breach will get them all bullish and BOOM ! blow off and then a sell...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud weekly.gif Size: 17 KB


hello lasty do you mean this weekly TL ????
  • #29,238
  • Apr 6, 2011 9:44pm Apr 6, 2011 9:44pm
Quoting aqeelaputra
Attachment

hello lasty do you mean this weekly TL ????

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud daily.gif Size: 18 KB


on my broker the daily i have bullish pattern with full body so i think may be this day close with bull running..
  • #29,239
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:12pm Apr 6, 2011 10:12pm
Quoting ely
Sanks.
Added 1.0431
Do you trade with any stop loss? If not your earlier trades will be deeply in the red now.

I'm asking out of curiosity, because at the rate you are adding shorts you either have a huge account with low leverage or you have been topping fresh funds to your account on a frequent basis.
  • #29,240
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:15pm Apr 6, 2011 10:15pm
I have a feeling this is was the last bullish kick on the news and it will reverse. Me stupid closed the short position. I would wait for a confirmation however. NZDUSD also looks good.
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