AUD/USD

Just like the one page RBA statement Glen's boy club has no clue were we going, frankly you can find more information here on FF.

I guess we have to wait on EU and the Queen, sorry GB for some entertainment.

Cheers

I dare say 'I DO'. Read my previous post and see how price played out the script almost picture perfect (missed my 2nd entry by ONE whole pip!). I haven't mentioned it on this thread before but I've purposed to tell it everywhere I go - God Almighty has given me revelation knowledge concerning the FOREX market! I'm ever so grateful to Him.

I think the aud/usd will go down to yellow area.

Well 1.0310 held first time around.. Mkt looks short but not overly.
Im hearing model sellers below 1.0280 into your target area.
Mkt still in consolidation phase..

broadening bottom, good pattern for break out trading...
if it break down 1300, target 1260
good trading to all

Investors warned against chasing commodities
4 Apr 2011

Wealth manager Russell Investments warns investors against chasing the commodities boom at the top of the cycle and also warns that the Australian dollar could fall significantly this year.

Russell Investments chief investment strategist for the Asia Pacific, Andrew Pease, says investors should beware the commodities cycle is at a point where new supply is being sought to dampen prices.

"That's one of the things that makes us a little bit nervous about commodity-based investments and resource-based investments," Mr Pease told reporters on Monday.

"You see that investors are chasing into these things after they've gone up very high and had a very good return."

Mr Pease was speaking a week after Chicago-based economist David Hale forecast that Australia and Brazil's dominance of global iron ore pricing could be broken by 2015 when 20 mines were expected to be opened in a Pilbara-sized west African mining region.

"What you're talking about with Africa is a classic (case) of what we always see in these commodity cycles: high prices and high return on equities always generate new supply," Mr Pease said.

"We caution investors against chasing into the sector, which has just had very good returns."

A strong run up in commodities prices has given the Australia dollar a stellar run since June when it then traded at 81 US cents.

The currency hit a new a new post-float high of 104.22 US cents in early morning trade on Monday.

However, Mr Pease warns the local currency could pull back in the second half of calendar 2011.

"It's overshot already and ... has moved well beyond any justification on medium-term fundamentals," he said.

Softer commodity prices and a mid-year reassessment by markets over expectations for interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of Australia could reverse the local currency's climb in 2011, he said.

"We see potential for the Aussie dollar to pull back by the end of this year."

The local currency's strength means the Australian share market looks attractive on valuation terms relative to other share markets in Asia.

But Mr Pease warned that current investment themes do not favour Australia compared with the rest of the region.


http://twurl.nl/mbqyia

Hi all,
yesterday I analyzed as given above and gave both a price projection and a time projection. It is still 22 hours and here's what AUDUSD has done so far.
Find chart attached.
Cheers!
Meshach.

Did you take your own advice is the big question though....

I'm waiting for aussie at 1.0386
What about opening short position there?

Short 2 good batches at 1.0412
Sanks

if you don't trade with a demo account... quite rich you must be.

Sanks.
Added 1.0431

Shorted AU

It should be stupid from Aussie, if it does not touch 1.0470.

Maybe It Will Happening after the daily candle change till tomorrow

hi dbeach,
what is the reason for your short, if you dont mind me asking?
me too shorted from 340 but it seems it goes higher
thank you

I wonder what is behind the price actions of AUDUSD during this 15-day trend especially the uptrend resume and slope on the hourly chart today. I expected a minimum 23.6% pullback measured from the beginning of the trend. Today move was very similar to NZDUSD but I would like to know what moves these two pairs. I don't understand the reason (especially fundamental) to go higher.

Just curious Alki, why is Aussie stupid if it does not touch 1.0470?

it could drop to 0287 and still go back up (might be starting a sideways channel)

AUD moves with the likes of Gold and Copper which is why is it called a commodity currency just like Crude oil and CAD (Canadian $) move together. Currently you have global inflation and since the value of the dollar continues to depreciate, you'd rather hold something that gives you a higher percentage return so you'll then look at the likes of AUD which gives you 4.75% vs 0.25% on the dollar. On top of that, their economy is better footed right now compared to our ballooning debt in the U.S. The China demand kept copper up which helped AUD, then you had the inflation hedge which drove gold up and that helped AUD.

However right now the currency is so high that it is starting to affect them as you recently saw their trade surplus turn into quite the deficit. Can it continue up? Can the dollar continue down as long as FEDs keep QE2 alive?

Once one understands the fundamental, you can easily see why stuff like these can remain irrational for so long. Doesn't help that everyone keeps trying to short it and getting squeezed (usually what happens when people don't take the time to read what is fueling the move up instead just staring at charts all day).

Speaking of Charts .. how about this move above resistance?

http://i52.tinypic.com/vowlk4.png


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