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  • #418,441
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:01am Apr 6, 2011 11:01am
London closed, time for drop now.
Always account for variable change..
  • #418,442
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:05am Apr 6, 2011 11:05am
Quoting kenfen69
....................If there is money to be made by wiping people out heading north for no logical reason...that is often exactly where it will go.
Not much but some logic. The word is Bait. Hanging a carrot in front of a mule does work sometimes.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #418,443
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:10am Apr 6, 2011 11:10am
Scalping over. Now looking for longer term trades.

In other words, like an alligator, finished eating fish now looking for fisherman.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #418,444
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:12am Apr 6, 2011 11:12am
Quoting Faller
I see a lot of distribution on the euro (futures) daily chart....and I see a lot of accumulation on the dx (futures) daily chart....a great base is forming on the dx and at this point I do believe the euro is over extended (not that I am right - just my view based on daily chart)...
What if the hike .75 instead of 25 ? just playing devils advocate....

Sure also my TA analysis is in Resistance levels and ready for a pullback at least. The FA side is a little bit more bearish as there are plenty of FA (debt related) that hasn't been digested in charts 'cause rates.

Trichet is a genius managing the markets so sure he can delay a selloff (buy time for the problematic countries) overshooting the rate on .50/.75 to break expectations or have a very hawkish gradual hikes speech that can prolong the move up until June hoping problems are cleared on the EZ (which IMO is almost sure wont), if not, debt and default are unavoidable in the Summer, all the hikes will be done and digested and FED will be ready to start increasing rates leaving the ECB without room to maneuver and euro ready to make a huge downturn.

we'll see
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #418,445
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:13am Apr 6, 2011 11:13am
ever since i changed my way of trading, i see things a lot more clearly now.

the dollar continues to weaken across the board, it is not your EURO,GBP,CHF, charts that will tell you whats going on.

look at interest rates, commodity prices, oil and gold, as well as USDX

so far the FED seems content with the direction of the dollar and QE is still a go. the dollar index continues to tumble and therefore all the pairs gain on the dollar.

i dont see any reversals in this trend till the FED decide its time to strengthen the USD. so far slow recovery, high unemployement and money printing will continue to make money for the EURO longs.

there is logic to the EURO movement you will find it in the USD

the only currency not in sinc with the dollar movement at this point is the JPY, it was till the disaster happen.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #418,446
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:16am Apr 6, 2011 11:16am
Uh, who says there's no logical reason for it to go up? The U.S. is in massive debt and devaluing the dollar makes it cheaper to pay it off. There's also the whole issue with the debt ceiling and government shutdown.

There's also plenty of reason for it to tank since the euro is just as weak if not weaker. Trying to predict forex is a worthless endeavor, just follow the PA and manage your risk.
  • #418,447
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:16am Apr 6, 2011 11:16am
Quoting Chicky
Not much but some logic. The word is Bait. Hanging a carrot in front of a mule does work sometimes.
Agreed Chicky. Was just trying to point out from the perspective of somebody who is emotionally attached to the idea that the Euro should correct...it must seem illogical. But, under these circumstances, a shrinking account balance, and a firm and persistent commitment to short, can be correlated to that word...bait!

* In the interest of full disclosure, I have been building a longer-term short trade for some time now.
  • #418,448
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:19am Apr 6, 2011 11:19am
sisse's got it, when the FED move the ECB will be in trouble so far, problems are avoided. in the mean time trade the bullish trend, sell the EURO when its time to sell.

howeve for precautions i closed my >200 pip profit on this baby, i want to make wait on the markets reactions tomorrow, for now i am profiting of the gold movement by trading the AUD and CHF seems to be ready to follow the weakening dollar
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #418,449
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:20am Apr 6, 2011 11:20am
I don't disagree with you at all.......every move starts from somewhere. I do not want confrontation from anyone and nor am I saying I am right.....there are many factors at play here - and as we are still in what I believe is a currency war......it will be the great minds that will battle it out for eventual victory - but again as I type oil, gold and market futures are dropping like a rock after all of them hitting 30 month highs......the euro has also hit multi month highs.....and like I mentioned before as commodities like gold and oil drop the us dollar rises forcing other currencies lower......and I do see a great base forming on the dx - so we all have our views and insights.....I do appreciate your thoughts - very well written.

Faller.

Quoting sisse
What if the hike .75 instead of 25 ?...
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #418,450
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:27am Apr 6, 2011 11:27am
Here is an H1 Long approaching.

Yellow: Buy Zone (watch PA)
Red Line: Stop
Green Line: TP (confluence with next daily .618 level)


Good Luck.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu h1.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #418,451
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:27am Apr 6, 2011 11:27am
i dont see commodities dropping
gold is at 1459 and oil 108, the exact price doesnt matter, thats what i have learned, that in trading 1.4200 is the same as 1.42500 as long as the trend and the overall movement continues upwards, fluctuations will happen, 1.4300 is a different story, prices move up and down knock and revisit, as long as 1.40, 1.42,1.43 are seen it means the overall direction of the EURO is up. till otherwise noted.

as of commodites they are higher than yesterday and higher than the day before therefore they are moving up. the USDX is lower therefore the usd is moving down.

i have made more money playing the GENERAL direction of price than mathematical trying to pin point aticipate, play fractals fibs, pivots MACD stochastics and all that bull shit
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #418,452
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:30am Apr 6, 2011 11:30am
Bingo - You can add Equities to your list. IMO people buying Equities to get rid of paper fiat...TT
  • #418,453
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:31am Apr 6, 2011 11:31am
Quoting the redlion
sisse's got it,.... when the FED move the ECB will be in trouble so far, problems
Just a quick note on that....

When the financial crisis started, CBs agreed to coordinate interest rate down at the same time to +/- the same levels to avoid exaggerate artificial monetary advantage on FX on free riders and also to send a strong message to the markets.

Tomorrow is the first time that the EZ (and probably the UK if not tomorrow next time) will DIVERGE from the FED, meaning CBs monetary policies are back in play (like 99% of the time are except in extreme circumstances like the global financial crisis, etc).

That's why is so important tomorrow 'cause the ECB will make the first move and a new map will be open for most of related FX pairs and crosses... if you have been long enough in the markets (not only when the financial crisis started) you know that rates and rates differentials and expectations trigger most of the longterm, stable and solid trends in a currency....which direction? I wish I knew in advance ....lol

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #418,454
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:32am Apr 6, 2011 11:32am
gold is down 10 dollars for the days highs....oil is down on the day and is down 1 dollar from the highs....the nasdaq is down 30 points form the days highs and is down on the day....the es is down 10 points for the days highs and is barely even on the day....natural gas is down 8 cents on the day and down 11 cents from the days highs.....

Quoting the redlion
i dont see commodities dropping
gold is at 1459 and oil 108, the exact price doesnt matter, thats what i have learned, that in trading 1.4200 is the same as 1.42500 as long as the trend and the overall movement continues upwards, fluctuations will happen, 1.4300 is a different story, prices move up and down knock and revisit, as long as 1.40, 1.42,1.43 are seen it means the overall direction of the EURO is up. till otherwise noted.

as of commodites they are higher than yesterday and higher than the day before therefore they are moving up. the...
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #418,455
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:32am Apr 6, 2011 11:32am
Quoting Faller;4526176 tells us - one way or the other. [I
But I do agree with you on picking tops and picking bottoms......if you want to do that you would be more successful going to a bar!![/i]

Cheers.
*L* a mans got to know and except his limitations.
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #418,456
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:35am Apr 6, 2011 11:35am
Quoting sisse
What if the hike .75 instead of 25 ? just playing devils advocate....

Sure also my TA analysis is in Resistance levels and ready for a pullback at least. The FA side is a little bit more bearish as there are plenty of FA (debt related) that hasn't been digested in charts 'cause rates.

Trichet is a genius managing the markets so sure he can delay a selloff (buy time for the problematic countries) overshooting the rate on .50/.75 to break expectations or have a very hawkish gradual hikes speech that can prolong the move up until June hoping problems...

And where will this genius Trichet lead The Eurozone in your opinion? How will this situation be resolved? Maybe you can name a good example from history?
  • #418,457
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:35am Apr 6, 2011 11:35am
Does anyone feel that the US government closing down due to overborrowing ,and are unable to get the limit of there lending raised.

Oil break $109

Eur raise rates a minimum .25%

2 reasons dollar bear ,one reason bull eur.

I hear this pair over extended from traders .

Overnight we broke out of a 3 week,200pip range .

Certainly enough time for trader to get in and out of positions and re-enter in the direction they feel appropriate.
Which unless we break back into the range looks like up.
So far there has been no real attempt to retrace never mind reverse.

If this was fake pop higher we would have been well on our way down already.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #418,458
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:37am Apr 6, 2011 11:37am
Quoting kenfen69
......... I think a lot of people are really getting emotional now...which is exactly what brokers/dealers want to happen....
What about us traders?
  • #418,459
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:39am Apr 6, 2011 11:39am
Quoting paul1
Does anyone feel that the US government closing down due to overborrowing ,and are unable to get the limit of there lending raised.

Oil break $109

Eur raise rates a minimum .25%

2 reasons dollar bear...
I think this spikes is takes Little traders sl and goes down
email: fxpro8@gmx. com
  • #418,460
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:40am Apr 6, 2011 11:40am
Quoting paul1
If this was fake pop higher we would have been well on our way down already..
No, not likely. They're going to ride this pony until after the hike....then we see what is what.....
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