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  • #418,421
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:12am Apr 6, 2011 10:12am
short 4343, sl just over 4350

Looks like eur is capped for not at 4345
gold & silver in free fall .
GU also droped a few pennies
  • #418,422
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:14am Apr 6, 2011 10:14am
4325.5 mid to 4302 ? just watching
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #418,423
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:19am Apr 6, 2011 10:19am
Long still good.

TP1 was breached
if it does not turn at the .618 level coming up then we are headed north till at least 1.4559

Good Luck

-Chart shows 1st TP breached as well as the next levels to watch.
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  • #418,424
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:27am Apr 6, 2011 10:27am
Quoting AriX3
is there any REASON as to why this keeps on rising right through resistances?
Reasons don't matter. Haven't you read enough all week, people are saying the euro shouldn't be here, it's not fair value bla bla bla. None of it matter. All it does is makes you sound smarter than you actually are lol.

Follow price.
Thank You
  • #418,425
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:33am Apr 6, 2011 10:33am
What do you think about selling at 1.4400 ty for your answer.
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  • #418,426
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:33am Apr 6, 2011 10:33am
Quoting arix3
is there any reason as to why this keeps on rising right through resistances?

its because gold price is booming or has been SEEMS TO BE SIMMERING OFF A BIT NOW.
Also rate expectations.

if correlations are working normally if gold is going down this should be too and vice versa
rat
  • #418,427
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:34am Apr 6, 2011 10:34am
Quoting wormboy
Reasons don't matter. Haven't you read enough all week, people are saying the euro shouldn't be here, it's not fair value bla bla bla. None of it matter. All it does is makes you sound smarter than you actually are lol.

Follow price.

Agreed. I got criticized when I took my long even though I had excelent R:R because there was resistance ahead.....there is always resistance. If I am projecting beyond the current resistance for my TP then I am happy to buy the retrace at the resistance (if there is one) all the way up to my TP. People act like resistance is a rule when in fact it is just one of many things to look at.
  • #418,428
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:39am Apr 6, 2011 10:39am
EUR will drop like a jack hammer pretty soon. Its overbought, and pretty much S&P and all stocks are in for a major correction. The upward motion is a fake movement upwards, for any downward reversal to happen, you need a good spike upwards. My advice is to short this pair asap at anywhere in between 4300 and 4350. The drop is going to be severe and fast, and will reach 4000 in no time.
  • #418,429
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:40am Apr 6, 2011 10:40am
Quoting samtouzen
What do you think about selling at 1.4400 ty for your answer.

With a nice tight stop (watch PA) I would target 1.4370 first....I will be tracking down on the H1 to grab one more long position if I can get nice R:R.
  • #418,430
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:42am Apr 6, 2011 10:42am
retrace some then let's fcuk 1.4330!

today was an example of bad trading from me. once we close below 30 i will be happier but i am too heavy short when too many charts still point up. stupid. let's see if i get out of this unarmed.

hapipipin
dreams do come true.
  • #418,431
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:42am Apr 6, 2011 10:42am
I do agree with you my fellow Canadian.......


Quoting Kambooj
EUR will drop like a jack hammer pretty soon. Its overbought, and pretty much S&P and all stocks are in for a major correction. The upward motion is a fake movement upwards, for any downward reversal to happen, you need a good spike upwards. My advice is to short this pair asap at anywhere in between 4300 and 4350. The drop is going to be severe and fast, and will reach 4000 in no time.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #418,432
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:46am Apr 6, 2011 10:46am
Why would the Euro come down when the good news continues to roll in...?

Spain cuts GDP forecast slightly

The government sees growth next year coming in at 2.3% from earlier 2.5% forecasts. Unemployment will average 19.8% this year versus an earlier 19.3% forecast.
Growth data in Q1 of this year suggests yearly growth of 1.3%
  • #418,433
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:48am Apr 6, 2011 10:48am
what are your strong reasons why the eur will become bearish at this price?
  • #418,434
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:50am Apr 6, 2011 10:50am
I built a few positions on the way up from 1.4210

Cashing out 2/3 now
  • #418,435
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:50am Apr 6, 2011 10:50am
Quoting Kambooj
..... My advice is to short this pair asap at anywhere in between 4300 and 4350. The drop is going to be severe and fast, and will reach 4000 in no time.
I disagree with your advice especially without even 1 FA or TA reason to support your view.

I have been hearing the same for the last 600 ticks up but like always is better bang for the buck in following the direction of the move until it change on the daily at least or stay on the sidelines ....

My 2 cents are actually quite different than yours, and is not shorting ASAP if you don't have a reason but miss the the ultimate top in the reversal if there is one....if there is going to be a trend reversal as you imply we'll have plenty of opportunities to short instead of picking the exact top...especially with rates in play tomorrow.

In simple words, overextended doesn't necessarily mean take the opposite side. If you want to play safe or confuse or simply you want to use common sense, take the day off tomorrow until the rates and just look at the reaction on your charts during and after.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #418,436
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:53am Apr 6, 2011 10:53am
Quoting sisse
I disagree with your advice especially without even 1 FA or TA reason to support your view.

I have been hearing the same for the last 600 ticks up but like always is better bang for the buck in following the direction of the move until it change on the daily at least or stay on the sidelines ....

My 2 cents are actually quite different than yours, and is not shorting ASAP if you don't have a reason but miss the the ultimate top in the reversal if there is one....if there is going to be a trend reversal as you imply we'll have plenty...
Great Advice. I think I'll close my short (opened @ 1.4343), and wait til tomorrow.

Thanks for sharing.
  • #418,437
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:55am Apr 6, 2011 10:55am
Quoting sisse
In simple words, overextended doesn't necessarily mean take the opposite side. If you want to play safe or confuse or simply you want to use common sense, take the day off tomorrow until the rates and just look at the reaction on your charts during and after.

sisse
Sound advice. I think a lot of people are really getting emotional now...which is exactly what brokers/dealers want to happen. There are SO many reasons why the Euro should correct, but it doesn't mean it will. If there is money to be made by wiping people out heading north for no logical reason...that is often exactly where it will go.
  • #418,438
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:56am Apr 6, 2011 10:56am
knew 30 would be a problem. i need 1.43265 before we see above 39.
dreams do come true.
  • #418,439
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:57am Apr 6, 2011 10:57am
Quoting Kambooj
EUR will drop like a jack hammer pretty soon. Its overbought, and pretty much S&P and all stocks are in for a major correction. The upward motion is a fake movement upwards, for any downward reversal to happen, you need a good spike upwards. My advice is to short this pair asap at anywhere in between 4300 and 4350. The drop is going to be severe and fast, and will reach 4000 in no time.
People have been saying this for weeks now. lol
  • #418,440
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:01am Apr 6, 2011 11:01am
I see a lot of distribution on the euro (futures) daily chart....and I see a lot of accumulation on the dx (futures) daily chart....a great base is forming on the dx and at this point I do believe the euro is over extended (not that I am right - just my view based on daily chart) I look at volume and spread on the daily as well as where the Stoch and Macd are positioned.....yes we are in an uptrend but it would appear as though a reversal is in the midst. A rate hike wont' help Euro stop inflation.......the price of oil keeps going up and the price of food is doing the same....there 25 basis point increase is going to do nothing to stop that. I watch gold tumble down today and I am watching the S&P drop to daily lows as of right now.....normally when you see things like that the us dollar rises against other currencies.....so that is my input. Time always tells us - one way or the other. But I do agree with you on picking tops and picking bottoms......if you want to do that you would be more successful going to a bar!!

Cheers.

Quoting sisse
I disagree with your advice especially without even 1 FA or TA reason to support your view.

I have been hearing the same for the last 600 ticks up but like always is better bang for the buck in following the direction of the move until it change on the daily at least or stay on the sidelines ....

My 2 cents are actually quite different than yours, and is not shorting ASAP if you don't have a reason but miss the the ultimate top in the reversal if there is one....if there is going to be a trend reversal as you imply we'll have plenty of...
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
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