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Trade What You See - Almost Naked Trading

  • #13,401
  • Apr 5, 2011 12:33pm Apr 5, 2011 12:33pm
My evening has gone with some analysis with 3 taps on E/U. 10 months backwards. Used only 4 h timeframe so these do not take into account possible trend changes in larger TFs. I tried to include even the ones which could have been like 3 taps when they existed (taking them is always aiming at moving target anyway). I took them from about a half of the trigger candle. Nor did I took any S/R lines into consideration. A little bit different and maybe more realistic setting than in my previous analysis. I didnīt start them on monday and some of them continued to the next week.

If you put your SL below/above last swing low/high, it seems that

13 of them hit SL. Most of them during times when there was no clear trend or ranging to both directions. Some of them were also trend changes in the middle of the week.
11 of them stayed under + 50 pips, but were possible to end with a profit or atleast BE
60 of them ended up with + 100 pips or more.

Many of them were really bumpy and long rides and went close to SL, but still ended up being profitable. => you shouldnīt change your original SL and take loss even though the original setup changes???

How to put your stop-loss with these? Should you keep the original SL and take profit on + 100 depending on the price actions. Should you trail your stops slowly upwards? At the moment I donīt see a clear answer to these. It may take a while to go through other currencies also. Many other questions aroused also during the study.

And Royalbow it looks like you could have a full time job as a hunter
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU0504.PNG Size: 94 KB
  • #13,402
  • Apr 5, 2011 12:50pm Apr 5, 2011 12:50pm
Quoting Fitness09
BE is a win. Chalk it up as a lesson learned. Go back and see if you maybe jumped in to the trade to quickly. Just like baseball, the game is 90% mental.
Yep, jumped the gun too soon.. Thnx for the encouragement.
  • #13,403
  • Apr 5, 2011 1:11pm Apr 5, 2011 1:11pm
AUD/USD just broke through resistance on M15.
  • #13,404
  • Apr 5, 2011 1:12pm Apr 5, 2011 1:12pm
Quoting Whistlepips
My evening has gone with some analysis with 3 taps on E/U. 10 months backwards. Used only 4 h timeframe so these do not take into account possible trend changes in larger TFs. I tried to include even the ones which could have been like 3 taps when they existed (taking them is always aiming at moving target anyway). I took them from about a half of the trigger candle. Nor did I took any S/R lines into consideration. A little bit different and maybe more realistic setting than in my previous analysis. I didnīt start them on monday and some of them...
Hey Whistle, thanks for all this interesting data you have been providing... I will for sure read this posts carefully and analise implications in my 3T trading. Good job!
Flp. 4:13
  • #13,405
  • Apr 5, 2011 1:25pm Apr 5, 2011 1:25pm
Quoting Anthar
Hey Whistle, thanks for all this interesting data you have been providing... I will for sure read this posts carefully and analise implications in my 3T trading. Good job!
Nice if it helps others also. It helps me just to write these down. I would be more than glad to know if they give you new ideas or if you have any comments about these.

One just came to me concerning the entry point. Should you try to enter 3 taps as soon as possible when there seems to be a trigger. In that way you can minimise your SL (atleas if you use SL above/below last swing high/low) and maximise your take profit. If you enter late, it makes the situation other way around. These trades seem to be high probability trades so it may be reasonable to take risks with them in the entry, even abowe support or below resistance? I donīt know? I will test these through and keep you informed about the results.

Im saying this even though three of my five 3 taps are running on a negative side at the moment. Two of the negative oneīs I took yesterday. Lets see what happens.
  • #13,406
  • Apr 5, 2011 1:45pm Apr 5, 2011 1:45pm
Quoting Whistlepips
[...] Should you try to enter 3 taps as soon as possible when there seems to be a trigger. In that way you can minimise your SL [...].
If I remember correctly, all depends on RSI and PA. If PA moves after 3rd tap into direction of trade and RSIs confirm direction then enter immediatelly (let someone corrct me if I'm wrong).
Time matters most
  • #13,407
  • Apr 5, 2011 1:52pm Apr 5, 2011 1:52pm
Quoting blackqn
If I remember correctly, all depends on RSI and PA. If PA moves after 3rd tap into direction of trade and RSIs confirm direction then enter immediately (let someone correct me if I'm wrong).
Whistle, don't try to over think the process. Seems like you have a good grasp for it, but I have seen many setups fail because the RSI turned the other way. It is impossible to catch every single setup, and there will always be another one. Stick to the way LG explains it. I understand you are trying to max your profits, but are you raising your risk at the sme time? Thanks for putting in the extra work and posting it.
  • #13,408
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:02pm Apr 5, 2011 2:02pm
Quoting blackqn
If I remember correctly, all depends on RSI and PA. If PA moves after 3rd tap into direction of trade and RSIs confirm direction then enter immediatelly (let someone corrct me if I'm wrong).
Good point and taken. The longer the potential trade has been going on before entry, the smaller the potential profit also.

I was just wondering is it enough to keep track on potential 3 taps if you check the situation when 4 h candles change and add the potential tap formations into your watch list. If thought that way there would be only 6 times/day (and night ), when you need to watch these. In addition to watch list of course. Iīm trying to fit 3 tap trading into my daily schedules and found it to be a good idea.
  • #13,409
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:10pm Apr 5, 2011 2:10pm
Quoting Fitness09
Whistle, don't try to over think the process. Seems like you have a good grasp for it, but I have seen many setups fail because the RSI turned the other way. It is impossible to catch every single setup, and there will always be another one. Stick to the way LG explains it. I understand you are trying to max your profits, but are you raising your risk at the sme time? Thanks for putting in the extra work and posting it.
You may be right with this. Maybe my thoughts have gone to the wrong direction. The last candle is of course the most problematic one because you donīt know how it will end up. In addition you donīt see from the 4 H charts had there been any potential 3 tap formations which have turned into something else. Atleast if you dont go to check them one by one from smaller TFs.......
  • #13,410
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:45pm Apr 5, 2011 2:45pm
Quoting Whistlepips
[...] you donīt see from the 4 H charts had there been any potential 3 tap formations [...]
There were some probably, all these times where TL wasn't as strong as nearest S/R was...

There was 3T marker somewhere, perhaps this may be used for backtesting?
Time matters most
  • #13,411
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:52pm Apr 5, 2011 2:52pm
Quoting Fitness09
Whistle, don't try to over think the process. Seems like you have a good grasp for it, but I have seen many setups fail because the RSI turned the other way. It is impossible to catch every single setup, and there will always be another one. Stick to the way LG explains it. I understand you are trying to max your profits, but are you raising your risk at the sme time? Thanks for putting in the extra work and posting it.
The 3 taps formed and then gone into bad are actually already taken into consideration in my previous list of results. I just checked. I enclosed a picture here of one that you might have taken long at a moment, but turned just after entry.

So you can actually see from 4 h candle afterwards that it has been a valid candle for 3 tap before itīs turn. The size of the sample is of course rather small to draw any major conclusions, but convincing anyway to see that you can make profit with these.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU3tapfailed.PNG Size: 71 KB
  • #13,412
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:55pm Apr 5, 2011 2:55pm
Quoting Whistlepips
Nice if it helps others also. It helps me just to write these down. I would be more than glad to know if they give you new ideas or if you have any comments about these.

One just came to me concerning the entry point. Should you try to enter 3 taps as soon as possible when there seems to be a trigger. In that way you can minimise your SL (atleas if you use SL above/below last swing high/low) and maximise your take profit. If you enter late, it makes the situation other way around. These trades seem to be high probability trades so it may be reasonable...
As Fitness said, I also like to keep things simple and don't overthink the process. There are a few things I always like to consider when taking a 3T and they help me keep things simple:

1. Go with the mayor trend, (this seems obvious as we look for confirmation on RSI and this mark the trend, but as you'll see in the chart below first days of month/week may give a different look on the RSI and the actual trend)
2. Once I found a setup I like to switch to H1 and look for an entry here (PA in the direction of my trade, just a personal preference)
3. Observe PA closely in case trade went right on against me and not rush into assuming losses if I don't see any clear signs of reversal on the actual trend.

This chart shows a beautiful wave pattern on EURCHF and I actually traded the last retracement short, because RSI pointed south for both W1 and MN (first days of the week / month of course). It was a bumpy ride though and I didn't enjoy it so much, but eventually it was worth +30 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHFconclusion.jpg Size: 131 KB
Flp. 4:13
  • #13,413
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:55pm Apr 5, 2011 2:55pm
EUR/USD has one more time attacked 1.4245 but have not broken this level, but it should do this in a not long time and run higher, hopefully.
Send greetings to all your rabits, deers nad wolfs
  • #13,414
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:57pm Apr 5, 2011 2:57pm
Quoting KillerAntz
In my opinion you entered the trade to early. You didn't wait for 2 full closed bars outside the 4H box, otherwise the second and the opening of the 3th would indicated the reversal and should have kept you out of the trade.
Hey killerantz,

Can you just explain why this was a wrong entry point? You mention two full closed candles outside the 4h box, isn't that what this is? 2green candles have closed outside the 4h box? Unless he entered the trade while the 2nd green candle was forming? Just a bit confused. Cheers dude.
Matt
  • #13,415
  • Apr 5, 2011 3:11pm Apr 5, 2011 3:11pm
Quoting Anthar
As Fitness said, I also like to keep things simple and don't overthink the process. There are a few things I always like to consider when taking a 3T and they help me keep things simple:

1. Go with the mayor trend, (this seems obvious as we look for confirmation on RSI and this mark the trend, but as you'll see in the chart below first days of month/week may give a different look on the RSI and the actual trend)
2. Once I found a setup I like to switch to H1 and look for an entry here (PA in the direction of my trade, just a personal preference)
3....
Thanks Anthar and others also. Nice to know the details of the way you trade these.
  • #13,416
  • Apr 5, 2011 3:15pm Apr 5, 2011 3:15pm
Quoting blackqn
There were some probably, all these times where TL wasn't as strong as nearest S/R was...

There was 3T marker somewhere, perhaps this may be used for backtesting?
Would be very nice to find it.
  • #13,417
  • Apr 5, 2011 3:16pm Apr 5, 2011 3:16pm
I think LFB posted it in following post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=4212850

If I remember correctly, it just simply finds 3Tapa without looking for RSIs, but I may be wrong here...
Time matters most
  • #13,418
  • Apr 5, 2011 3:22pm Apr 5, 2011 3:22pm
Quoting blackqn
I think LFB posted it in following post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=4212850

If I remember correctly, it just simply finds 3Tapa without looking for RSIs, but I may be wrong here...
Thanks. I will look into it and test if itīs useful for backtesting.
  • #13,419
  • Apr 5, 2011 3:37pm Apr 5, 2011 3:37pm
It is consolidating before further move (hopefuly UP). Probably worth of watching. stopped at 120.660 resistance area. It is visible on M15 chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy_m15_20110405.gif Size: 20 KB
Time matters most
  • #13,420
  • Apr 5, 2011 3:57pm Apr 5, 2011 3:57pm
Quoting blackqn
It is consolidating before further move (hopefuly UP). Probably worth of watching. stopped at 120.660 resistance area. It is visible on M15 chart.

Attachment
and now it is breaking-up upwards, is trying at least
Time matters most
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