Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected | Page 337 | Forex Factory

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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #6,721
  • Apr 5, 2011 11:57am Apr 5, 2011 11:57am
I've been away for a few days and not near a screen, so its interesting to see pgd's S&R indy - last additions ~10 days ago - has kept this chart updated with some useful levels......http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: apr 5 eu 15m uk close.gif Size: 17 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,722
  • Edited 4:10pm Apr 5, 2011 3:46pm | Edited 4:10pm
Quoting Islander
I've been away for a few days and not near a screen, so its interesting to see pgd's S&R indy - last additions ~10 days ago - has kept this chart updated with some useful levels......http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
hey islander!

hope you had a great holiday.
glad the indy's proving useful.

I notice the blue lines on your chart are RN's.
the red at 1.6136 (near the centre) seems to be the pivot.
what is the green line at 1.5961 (near the bottom)?

cheers.
  • #6,723
  • Apr 6, 2011 1:40am Apr 6, 2011 1:40am
Quoting pgd
hey islander!

hope you had a great holiday.
glad the indy's proving useful.

I notice the blue lines on your chart are RN's.
the red at 1.6136 (near the centre) seems to be the pivot.
what is the green line at 1.5961 (near the bottom)?

cheers.
Yes thanks - but too much time driving as UK traffic's terrible!

Correct, blue levels are from the Sweet Spots indy and the red & green were old levels off my daily chart.

Now I see that an old daily € level has just been hit - 4281 the November 4th high - in a good volume 15m doji - its also todays MR2. Will this turn € south for a retrace?......TWT

Cable's also just retested its highs from a couple of weeks ago. IF these hold, it will make a nice H&S on my 4 hr chart.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,724
  • Edited 6:32am Apr 6, 2011 5:47am | Edited 6:32am
Quoting Islander
Yes thanks - but too much time driving as UK traffic's terrible!

Correct, blue levels are from the Sweet Spots indy and the red & green were old levels off my daily chart.

Now I see that an old daily € level has just been hit - 4281 the November 4th high - in a good volume 15m doji - its also todays MR2. Will this turn € south for a retrace?......TWT

Cable's also just retested its highs from a couple of weeks ago. IF these hold, it will make a nice H&S on my 4 hr chart.....
Islander,

EU broke 4281 and is holding beyond.
higher highs now, would you say? to where?

If GU retest of earlier high would make the top, the high of the right shoulder, isn't that potential HnS more clearly visible on the D1 chart?
  • #6,725
  • Apr 6, 2011 7:29am Apr 6, 2011 7:29am
Quoting pgd
Islander,

EU broke 4281 and is holding beyond.
higher highs now, would you say? to where?

If GU retest of earlier high would make the top, the high of the right shoulder, isn't that potential HnS more clearly visible on the D1 chart?
Let's see what happens to € in the US session as there are sellers around the 4310 area that need to be removed for the rally to continue.

IF we get a NY close above 4280 and preferably above 4300, then the next levels are the 1995 double top around 4525 and the Jan 2010 high of 4579.....

The poor UK data has pushed cable back under its 6300 level and so far we have a daily doji. IF todays high holds, AND cable turns south, then we have a clear daily H&S.......TWT

Edit: dont forget the ECB are expected to raise rates by 0.25% tomorrow and before that we have the BOE rate statement
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,726
  • Apr 6, 2011 7:49am Apr 6, 2011 7:49am
Nice trendline/pivot/psych level short on cable just now....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable.gif Size: 53 KB
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #6,727
  • Apr 6, 2011 8:09am Apr 6, 2011 8:09am
Quoting Dhb
Nice trendline/pivot/psych level short on cable just now....

Attachment
Dhb,

I took that one too.
what price was your entry?

cheers.
  • #6,728
  • Apr 6, 2011 8:36am Apr 6, 2011 8:36am
That would be 6295. It had already broken south of the previous candle's close, but moved a little up again when I sold.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #6,729
  • Apr 6, 2011 6:26pm Apr 6, 2011 6:26pm
Quoting Dhb
Nice trendline/pivot/psych level short on cable just now....

Attachment
what was your reason for taking this trade ?
  • #6,730
  • Apr 6, 2011 6:47pm Apr 6, 2011 6:47pm
Quoting dan89
what was your reason for taking this trade ?
My guess would be a dip below the TL, a retracement to the TL and then resuming the drop south. Those would have been my reasons had I been around for it, dan.
  • #6,731
  • Apr 7, 2011 2:55am Apr 7, 2011 2:55am
Saw that bullflag b/o above yest's high & __50 a bit late.
it had put in some HL's, HH's in the meantime.
picked it up on the retrace at 1.0460.
exited 1.0475
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20110407-au-01.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #6,732
  • Apr 7, 2011 3:41am Apr 7, 2011 3:41am
Quoting eyevoltage
My guess would be a dip below the TL, a retracement to the TL and then resuming the drop south. Those would have been my reasons had I been around for it, dan.
That is correct, EV.

First of all, I was looking for shorting opportunities, since the news induced sell-off yesterday morning suggested the trend at the time was down. I assumed the retracement following the sell-off was going to break at some point. I drew the trendline, it got broken, saw price coming back (well, almost), and then this railroad tracks / 2-bar pin / 2-candle hammer / whatever occurred.

There was also some confluence: the sell signal was a lower high rejection of the 6300 psych level and the MR1 pivot level (at least I think it's called MR1, right? ).

Put all these things together, and you've got a pretty high probability short setup.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #6,733
  • Apr 7, 2011 3:47am Apr 7, 2011 3:47am
Quoting eyevoltage
My guess would be a dip below the TL, a retracement to the TL and then resuming the drop south. Those would have been my reasons had I been around for it, dan.
Frequent testing of TL breaks was one of the key reasons I focused on trading hl/lh's.

Being int rate day I'm outta here.

Break a leg guys.
  • #6,734
  • Apr 7, 2011 4:01am Apr 7, 2011 4:01am
Quoting Dhb
That is correct, EV.

First of all, I was looking for shorting opportunities, since the news induced sell-off yesterday morning suggested the trend at the time was down. I assumed the retracement following the sell-off was going to break at some point. I drew the trendline, it got broken, saw price coming back (well, almost), and then this railroad tracks / 2-bar pin / 2-candle hammer / whatever occurred.

There was also some confluence: the sell signal was a lower high rejection of the 6300 psych level and the MR1 pivot level (at least...
Yes, it would be MR1, dhb, which on my chart was in close confluence with the previous day's high. Following the retrace, again on my chart, a large harami candle formed, which would have been a good heads-up for a further drop.
Nice trade, mate.
  • #6,735
  • Apr 7, 2011 4:10am Apr 7, 2011 4:10am
Quoting pgd
Saw that bullflag b/o above yest's high & __50 a bit late.
it had put in some HL's, HH's in the meantime.
picked it up on the retrace at 1.0460.
exited 1.0475
Nicely spotted, pgd. That was happening whilst I was still getting my head together after stumbling out of bed. Overslept this morning!
  • #6,736
  • Apr 7, 2011 4:17am Apr 7, 2011 4:17am
Quoting eyevoltage
Nicely spotted, pgd. That was happening whilst I was still getting my head together after stumbling out of bed. Overslept this morning!
thank you, ev.
  • #6,737
  • Apr 7, 2011 6:34am Apr 7, 2011 6:34am
A question for the experts:

pl see attached EJ chart.

Divergence marked in aqua happens first.
it is at confluence of __25 and S1 plus
121.25 is also a support level coming from yesterday.

divergence marked in yellow happens later.
it is not on any important level.

In realtime, how would one know not to trade the first one which is off 3 important levels and on what basis would one take the second one, if at all?

thanks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20110407-ej-02.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #6,738
  • Edited 8:22am Apr 7, 2011 7:30am | Edited 8:22am
Quoting pgd
A question for the experts:

pl see attached EJ chart.

Divergence marked in aqua happens first.
it is at confluence of __25 and S1 plus
121.25 is also a support level coming from yesterday.

divergence marked in yellow happens later.
it is not on any important level.

In realtime, how would one know not to trade the first one which is off 3 important levels and on what basis would one take the second one, if at all?

thanks.
In the first one, 3 important levels or not, there's a hammer and then a bullish candle, but there's still quite a gap between the MA's. You'd want at least some sort of movement into the MA zone before considering whether or not to trade. In the second one, this time there IS a positive move upwards, and in circumstances like these, I look for any sort of pull-back before considering a trade. In this case, there's 3 rising bullish candles and then a small pull-back to the 13ema, which would be the heads-up for me.

Since then, of course, there's been no stopping price going up with another couple of pull-backs for good measure. Pull-backs, IMHO, are one of the greatest contributory factors to this method, regardless of which other indicators one uses.
Hope all this makes sense.
  • #6,739
  • Apr 7, 2011 3:26pm Apr 7, 2011 3:26pm
Quoting eyevoltage
In the first one, 3 important levels or not, there's a hammer and then a bullish candle, but there's still quite a gap between the MA's....
Hey EV i was wondering if you could explain a little more about the distance between the MAs and movement into the MAs ?

Dan
  • #6,740
  • Edited 1:41am Apr 8, 2011 1:00am | Edited 1:41am
Quoting eyevoltage
In the first one, 3 important levels or not, there's a hammer and then a bullish candle, but there's still quite a gap between the MA's....
hi ev,

thanks for the input.

my thoughts:

some bullish candles and a pullback would perhaps provide a valid entry irrespective of preceding divergence.

as the suggested entry comes about 25 pips after the divergence, where some early birds are probably leaving with profits, I was actually keen to know if there are any telltale signs one could look for at the point of divergence itself or within a bar of it to identify a high probability reverse move in order to be that early bird.

thanks again.
cheers.
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