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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #23,721
  • Apr 1, 2011 3:04am Apr 1, 2011 3:04am
Quoting wontfindanam
If you keep trading on yesterday's news, you will never make a profit. Please take a look at the recent comments by FOMC members, with Kocherlakota the latest to join the fray today. The statements have been uniformly hawkish, with some (Kocherlakota) even indicating that a rate hike of 75bps might be needed before the end of 2011. The dollar has fallen consistently over the last 9 months because of QE2. I don't see any reason why it shouldn't rise consistently because of the end of QE2 and a more hawkish monetary policy from the US. Add to it a...
I don't think the forex markets work on fundamentals to be honest but trends only, not holding this long or short at the moment, but pretty sure this is a short term spike, the downward momentum has been going on for years, long before QE2.
I'm watching this currency so closely I'm using windows magnifier
  • #23,722
  • Apr 1, 2011 3:26am Apr 1, 2011 3:26am
Quoting Moneyright
I don't think the forex markets work on fundamentals to be honest but trends only, not holding this long or short at the moment, but pretty sure this is a short term spike, the downward momentum has been going on for years, long before QE2.
Very plainly QE2 pushed the pair down and the momentum will reasonably reverse as it comes off, so we can only say we will keep going down until we don't. However it is still waaay more in the interests of USA to keep $ low than let it rise so, since the US holds the biggest stick for the moment it is likely to keep getting its way. I am happy to bale on the longs I scaled into from 82.66 to 83.33 and be happy with the 80 pips on what looks like a double top and see what it does from here before hopefully picking the next run. Particularly given how the volume is dropping off in anticipation of non farm payroll..............
  • #23,723
  • Apr 1, 2011 6:58am Apr 1, 2011 6:58am
Quoting visser300
88 is a very very very strong resistance, buddy.
Yes Sir, thank you, i saw it, but the truth is that after my researchs, (historical, techniques, fundamentals, etc.) i USJPY arrive until 125 or 120 at least, always talking in the long term.....time to time....If i fail i will posted it, if i succes ill do it too.

No regret
No surrender
  • #23,724
  • Apr 1, 2011 7:43am Apr 1, 2011 7:43am
Quoting VinceS
Very plainly QE2 pushed the pair down and the momentum will reasonably reverse as it comes off, so we can only say we will keep going down until we don't. However it is still waaay more in the interests of USA to keep $ low than let it rise so, since the US holds the biggest stick for the moment it is likely to keep getting its way. I am happy to bale on the longs I scaled into from 82.66 to 83.33 and be happy with the 80 pips on what looks like a double top and see what it does from here before hopefully picking the next run. Particularly given...
Hey, how's about your double top, buddy?
  • #23,725
  • Apr 1, 2011 7:50am Apr 1, 2011 7:50am
Ok, took profit at 84, now long again, opened 84.152, TP 84400...

No regret
No surrender
  • #23,726
  • Apr 1, 2011 7:59am Apr 1, 2011 7:59am
Quoting charlierich
Ok, took profit at 84, now long again, opened 84.152, TP 84400...

No regret
No surrender
My target are 85 +- 10 pips, buddy. After that I will get the hell out and wait for a couple of days.
  • #23,727
  • Apr 1, 2011 8:51am Apr 1, 2011 8:51am
Quoting visser300
My target are 85 +- 10 pips, buddy. After that I will get the hell out and wait for a couple of days.
Its ok, for a short time target, its pretty good 85, but for a mid-long term the 90 is ok too....

Now took profit at 84.400, opened again at 84465, TP 84700
  • #23,728
  • Apr 1, 2011 9:44am Apr 1, 2011 9:44am
Quoting charlierich
Yes Sir, first goal 90, then looking for 100 (unless something suddenly appears, like a playful chart), but the 90 is piece of cake, sooner or later at most two months.....

No regret
No surrender
Thanks! Seems like US is trying to hold the USD from climbing too fast. I am going to exit all my UJ trades from 80 onwards. I will keep going long again for every 50 pips. I know averaging down is bad.
  • #23,729
  • Apr 1, 2011 9:14pm Apr 1, 2011 9:14pm
Quoting charlierich
Its ok, for a short time target, its pretty good 85, but for a mid-long term the 90 is ok too....

Now took profit at 84.400, opened again at 84465, TP 84700
Mmmm sh... happens, stop loss at 84.400
Still remain my long term trade long since 80.365, ill keep it till the end...
Lets see on Sunday to re-enter again.....with a new long...

No regret
No surrender
  • #23,730
  • Apr 1, 2011 10:10pm Apr 1, 2011 10:10pm
Quoting charlierich
No regret
No surrender
What that bought me was this howling blunder so watch out http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23453

That experience shows that one available outcome of the above attitude is that of being an effing twat, I took this option and didn't find it too enjoyable! And I'm still rolling in it! The real question becomes "So when would you like to learn that?" I am quarter the way back from my stuff-up now but there are no guarantees this will continue.

I also happen to think the way margin calls were handled was disgusting and have initiated a formal complaint process, we'll see how that goes. I am of a mind to have a crack at revolutionising the way FX margin is managed for mug punters everywhere as a result of my particular experiences. Big Ideas, we'll see how much traction this old dog gets in the face of reality.....

Also I am on the verge of leaving town for a week so I will have nothing further to say on this or any subject for a while! I am open long and sailing blind, all I have is hope protecting my trades and the realisation that another collapse will wipe me out on margin calls. I would rather it didn't happen, but life will continue if it does and, like your good self, there are many reasons to believe the upside is real and down side prospects limited..... but shyte can and too often does happen so I will blunder on regardless! I should be back in mobile phone coverage by Wed open US EST so that is my next chance for a look, keep your fingers crossed for me that the sucker doesn't crash in the mean time huh?
  • #23,731
  • Apr 2, 2011 12:14am Apr 2, 2011 12:14am
Quoting VinceS
Also I am on the verge of leaving town for a week so I will have nothing further to say on this or any subject for a while! I am open long and sailing blind, all I have is hope protecting my trades and the realisation that another collapse will wipe me out on margin calls.
At this point, why wouldn't you initiate a safety stop?

At least one at current break even.

Hope don't cut it.
No way I'll wreck this... It's a beer truck!
  • #23,732
  • Apr 2, 2011 3:37am Apr 2, 2011 3:37am
This is the first time sense late last Summer that I am actually considering a Short on this Pair.

  • #23,733
  • Apr 2, 2011 3:38am Apr 2, 2011 3:38am
Quoting USD-Bear
it sounds strange but lately:
weak USD = intervention = strong UJ
strong USD = stop intervention = weak UJ
So if current move down in USDX ends (where I don't know, maybe 74) downward retrace of UJ is likely
I think it looks more like strong USD, no matter what (irony).

The break of 84.50 opens up for a whole new uptrend. However, I am loaded again. Second time this year

The closest down trend line is a duplicate of the previous one... works like a charm.
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  • #23,734
  • Apr 2, 2011 3:53am Apr 2, 2011 3:53am
Quoting Larseg
I think it looks more like strong USD, no matter what (irony).
So do I.

I will be selling at contained peaks.

Overall I never could understand how earthquakes and radiation where good things.

I wasn't going to buy stock (currency )in that country.
  • #23,735
  • Apr 2, 2011 4:43am Apr 2, 2011 4:43am
Quoting Astroman
This is the first time sense late last Summer that I am actually considering a Short on this Pair.

Personally I think a short is the way to go from here, an even better short if it reaches 8,500 to 8,600. I would be very wary of going long at this point which has proved strong resistance in the past, this was once 13,000 and 7,600 remember, so is 8,400 really safe to go long from? I feel there will be more downside; IMHO the trend is still down.

I'm keeping out of it this until either this starts to go down again or a sustained upward trend develops, I fear this is a short term spike which will be sold into. I'm long on eur/usd, there is a more definite trend there, a safer bet by far.
I'm watching this currency so closely I'm using windows magnifier
  • #23,736
  • Apr 2, 2011 8:48pm Apr 2, 2011 8:48pm
Quoting VinceS
What that bought me was this howling blunder so watch out http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23453

That experience shows that one available outcome of the above attitude is that of being an effing twat, I took this option and didn't find it too enjoyable! And I'm still rolling in it! The real question becomes "So when would you like to learn that?" I am quarter the way back from my stuff-up now but there are no guarantees this will continue.

I also happen to think the way margin calls were handled was disgusting...
Sorry buddy, really, life and business are like that, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, the historical info is valid, fundamental analysis as well, the technician, etc. but we can not do anything against the BIG money, nothing to do with monetary decisions of a country, nor against the banks, etc, said this i personaly never put "important money" to trade in forex.....well hope you be on track again...what i think? usjpy will go down for a while, and will come back to the long positions until reach the 90 in a couple of months.

No regret
No surrender
  • #23,737
  • Apr 4, 2011 9:25pm Apr 4, 2011 9:25pm
Usd/jpy will go down to the 84.09 area, sell it now.
  • #23,738
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:56am Apr 5, 2011 2:56am
Quoting forexcfa
Usd/jpy will go down to the 84.09 area, sell it now.
time to buy again on the pull back . USD is gain strength backed by G7 , yeah , what goes up always goes up ,yeah
  • #23,739
  • Apr 5, 2011 3:33am Apr 5, 2011 3:33am
Quoting tankokjian
time to buy again on the pull back . USD is gain strength backed by G7 , yeah , what goes up always goes up ,yeah
I can't see what's changed, USD/JPY will make it's way back to 8200 again soon.
For now though I'm keeping out of it, I'm not convinced enough to bet my money on it.
I would sooner buy on a dip, or sell on a high.
I'm watching this currency so closely I'm using windows magnifier
  • #23,740
  • Apr 5, 2011 4:50am Apr 5, 2011 4:50am
I'm sticking with this pair as I still think USD has some upward momentum left to show......at least in the near future.
FXsniper Pips This Month: -542
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