Attachments: Sonic R. System

Sonic R. System

#18,901
Mar 31, 2011 3:33pm Mar 31, 2011 3:33pm

traderathome
Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts

AU:

The M30 volume analysis on this one shows the tallest volume bar is for a candle coming down off the midday highs, hence shorting. Since then, the US BBs moved the price back up, and a little higher to just above the half number. The low volume up there indicates too many short orders waiting to be executed created a ceiling. And below the ceiling, shorters were not able to do a lot of business since not many buyers exist there to take the other side of the orders.

Currently, the price is moving back down. And all this is a bearish picture. It looks like the BBs have kept AU up, while taking opportunities to build short positions. The NFP tomorrow could be the event that opens the trap door.

And this too, is speculative.

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#18,902
Mar 31, 2011 3:46pm Mar 31, 2011 3:46pm

noobguy
| Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Trader | 85 Posts

becareful from those tornadoes traderathome, saw that on the news earlier.

#18,903
Mar 31, 2011 4:29pm Mar 31, 2011 4:29pm

traderathome
Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts

Quoting noobguy

Disliked

becareful from those tornadoes traderathome, saw that on the news earlier.

Ignored

Thanks, noobguy. We have a break in the weather right now, but more is to come in from the Gulf of Mexico later. The reports are that it will continue to be wet, but hopefully a lot less lightning and reduced incidents of tornadoes. We awoke late to find a large oak tree branch across the walk to the front door, which has caused no damage that we can see. It is all very messy and still raining outside, so no cleanup opportunity is likely until tomorrow, at the earliest....and only if the incoming weather has made it thru and departed. After that, it is a trip to the store for a new chain for the chain saw.....firewood for next winter.

#18,904
Mar 31, 2011 5:04pm Mar 31, 2011 5:04pm

traderathome
Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts

EU:

PA dropped thru SR and is back up testing it. So, even though this is the asian session, and early in it at that, I have ventured a very small trade here.

Entry is short (ES = red). The stop loss (SL = black) is above the upper half number and above previous PA. The first target (TPs = green) is just below the 1/4 number in the area of the next SR region down. The second target is just above the 3/4 number below that, in the area of previous consolidation prior to the run up.

Since the asian session usually does not make long runs, the second TP is highly unlikely. But this being NFP, anything can happen, including a mad dash down to the second TP area, back up and then a greater move down, maybe even below RgL, after NFP. Of course, PA could just go up, which is why this is a small trade.

I have another EU short trade that hits BE at 1.4110, and another large short trade that hits BE at 1.3730.....quite a ways off right now.

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#18,905
Mar 31, 2011 5:23pm Mar 31, 2011 5:23pm

enigma4x
| Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Just a trader of trades ... (5 | 1,439 Posts

Quoting traderathome

Disliked

EU:

The BBs ran the price up early today....

Ignored

good nite sonicerz,

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it is so easy too see - with sonc r candlevolumen

enigma4x

enjoy my life ... and ride the waves - all what I do

#18,906
Mar 31, 2011 5:46pm Mar 31, 2011 5:46pm

traderathome
Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts

Quoting enigma4x

Disliked

good nite sonicerz,

Attachment

it is so easy too see - with sonc r candlevolumen

enigma4x

Ignored

Enigma4x, on your chart you suggest that the BBs moved the price down a bit to test supply, and that there was none. Supply vs Demand, or Sellers vs Buyers is the question, and you are suggesting the BBs found no Sellers as they ran the price down a bit. Based on your previous EU charts predicting a run to the 1.48xx area, it looks like you are suggesting there are no sellers because most traders are EU buyers.

After the constant pumping of this pair, why would any Seller be motivated to sell? Geez, the higher it goes, the harder it will fall!

I suggest that the reason the BBs are not finding supply; are not finding sellers, is NOT that traders are in a buying mode, but that "sellers" are just getting too smart to give up thru all this contrived pumping! They see the rainbow bending over to fall later to the pot of gold!

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#18,907
Mar 31, 2011 5:53pm Mar 31, 2011 5:53pm

enigma4x
| Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Just a trader of trades ... (5 | 1,439 Posts

Quoting traderathome

Disliked

Enigma4x, on your chart you suggest that the BBs moved the price down a bit to test supply, and that there was none. Supply vs Demand, or Sellers vs Buyers is the question, and you are suggesting the BBs found no Sellers as they ran the price down a bit. Based on your previous EU charts predicting a run to the 1.48xx area, it looks like you are suggesting there are no sellers because most traders are EU buyers.

After the constant pumping of this pair, why would any Seller be motivated to sell? Geez, the higher it goes, the harder it will fall!...

Ignored

nice one. thank u great tah.

enigma4x

p.s. i´m tired and my clock will ring in 5h

enjoy my life ... and ride the waves - all what I do

#18,908
Mar 31, 2011 5:55pm Mar 31, 2011 5:55pm

enigma4x
| Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Just a trader of trades ... (5 | 1,439 Posts

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enjoy my life ... and ride the waves - all what I do

#18,909
Mar 31, 2011 6:21pm Mar 31, 2011 6:21pm

traderathome
Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts

Quoting enigma4x

Disliked

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Ignored

The same is true of EJ. So, I guess now is the time to short the dickens out of it!.......only with a SonicR short setup, though.

Nice trade, Enigma4x. You earned some rest.

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#18,910
Edited 2:20am Apr 1, 2011 1:49am | Edited 2:20am

traderathome
Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts

UCad:

Another apparent bounce in the SR area, but more notable, considering the coming NFP release, is that price has been kept low. So this still looks like accumulation of longs, with the price being held down for that purppose. Since the Frankfurt open, I have been looking to see if the BBs spike it down. Nothing yet. But if the Frankfurt BBs don't, there is still the chance the London BBs might.

Edit: Switching to the M15 TF to capture the end results of a candle sooner, we see the London BBs did, in fact, drive the price lower. It cannot be said that they are finished doing so, but so far the drive down has been on high volume, indicating this was a buying drive. This can be confirmed by looking at M1 volume to see that most of the M15 volume came at the lower prices. So, if this sets up later as a SonicR long, it could be a valid setup for a decent run.

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#18,911
Apr 1, 2011 2:28am Apr 1, 2011 2:28am

sonicdeejay
| Commercial User | Joined Mar 2008 | 9,070 Posts | Online Now

I foresee, USD/CAD has more downside risk.

1. It is below Dragon.
2. Big vol at one of the recent high.

See what NFP brings!!
Sonic

#18,912
Apr 1, 2011 2:36am Apr 1, 2011 2:36am

nando_rich
| Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,354 Posts

Quoting sonicdeejay

Disliked

I foresee, USD/CAD has more downside risk.

1. It is below Dragon.
2. Big vol at one of the recent high.

See what NFP brings!!
Sonic

Ignored

Are you thinking in go short on EU below half number? or are you waiting the US sesion to take any decision?

"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans

#18,913
Apr 1, 2011 3:06am Apr 1, 2011 3:06am

traderathome
Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts

UChf:

Took this long at 0.9217. I waited until it looked to me that PA was going to clear the previous high. It did, then pulled back to the previous high. That is when I entered. The volume analysis showed very high volume (green volume bar) on a very short candle right after a climax high volume bar (red). This was a strong sign that buyers were heavily loading up before the price broke high again. And due to this indication, I have the SL closer than I would otherwise.

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