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  • #416,501
  • Mar 31, 2011 1:39pm Mar 31, 2011 1:39pm
Quoting fxvoilaaa
stupid eu ranging past few hours.
Expect nothing but silliness until NFP.

If you must...I strongly recommend reduced lots and widened stops.
  • #416,502
  • Mar 31, 2011 1:43pm Mar 31, 2011 1:43pm
Quoting kenfen69
Expect nothing but silliness until NFP.

If you must...I strongly recommend reduced lots and widened stops.
naah, i'm messing. not traded nfp for ages.

just get blown.
  • #416,503
  • Mar 31, 2011 1:43pm Mar 31, 2011 1:43pm
Quoting fxvoilaaa
not that i advocate trading news of course...
by the way, where's that burgerking?
  • #416,504
  • Mar 31, 2011 1:44pm Mar 31, 2011 1:44pm
Quoting kenfen69
Expect nothing but silliness until NFP.

If you must...I strongly recommend reduced lots and widened stops.

If this damn thing is going to just range within few pips till NFP, then expect the buillish trend to be still valid and we might just see a 100 pip retrace during NFP to 1.4080 levels and continue its uptrend back.... and break the 1.4250 levels and start going up....
  • #416,505
  • Mar 31, 2011 1:47pm Mar 31, 2011 1:47pm
Quoting Tenshi28
I am generally above consensus-bullish on the US this year, I think the recovery is starting to look more solid that many people think, except for the housing market which is still in the pits. Consequently, I expect employment numbers to continue to improve as they have in the past months, could give dollar a temporary boost. Can't give you hard evidence for my view though, it's just a personal perspective when looking at the whole set of data.

As for the ECB, I think it's more than clear that they won't be able to hold off any longer, those...
lol....

I agree with your view.

TA is scary (waiting for today and tomorrow close), If daily, weekly and monthly close at highs in overextended mode its a "nuclear" combination for a reversal.

On the FA side, agree with your NFP view and the US short term outlook.

On the euro side, the last reports are even more bearish than usual. Irish banks and especially the massive blow on Portugal's 5 years today above 9.6 !!!!!. Portugal and Ireland problems were also digested +/- in charts but not these last blows, price barely tick down on the massive news and as you perfectly described those itchy fingers are dying to pull the trigger.

Its 100% clear that everybody is waiting for the ECB to make the next move (and looks closer to a reversal than a continuation).

In trading terms, the 3 scenarios are clear in my case for the next few weeks:

1) NFP can trigger a top tomorrow and limited selloff setting the path for after the ECB conference huge knee jerk reaction spike to confirm a break down of daily support 1.404x later. Deep & fast.

2) NFP can confirm a mini break up daily resistance, closing the week on the highs with the monthly and daily also on highs and clearing an "easy" bull trap on daily/weekly and monthly charts to be traded after the knee jerk reaction spike on ECB and close below last daily R confirming a clean reversal.

3) Or a mild NFP inside the daily range 1.425x / 1.414x, for a choppy week until ECB conference huge knee jerk reaction spike to confirm a break up of daily R and keep flying to 1.44xx and beyond.

I don't like FAwise option 3). Option 1) is the most probable but very difficult to trade until it settle down (I am talking on taking the meat of the swing not intraday) and option 2) is the one I would like and is the most balance TA and FAwise but probably won't happen that easily.

In any case, we'll see.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #416,506
  • Mar 31, 2011 1:47pm Mar 31, 2011 1:47pm
Quoting sriramsh
If this damn thing is going to just range within few pips till NFP, then expect the buillish trend to be still valid and we might just see a 100 pip retrace during NFP to 1.4080 levels and continue its uptrend back.... and break the 1.4250 levels and start going up....
hOW BOUT THE SPIKES DOING THAT AT THE SAME CANDLE?
  • #416,507
  • Mar 31, 2011 1:47pm Mar 31, 2011 1:47pm
Quoting fxvoilaaa
naah, i'm messing. not traded nfp for ages.

just get blown.
I wasn't talking about the actual release. I meant from now until the release...reduce lots, widen stops. Any moves will probably be spiky and violent...and probably not in directions you may think they should be.
  • #416,508
  • Mar 31, 2011 1:48pm Mar 31, 2011 1:48pm
Nice pips for the day
Attached Image
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #416,509
  • Mar 31, 2011 1:48pm Mar 31, 2011 1:48pm
i know it's kind of bold (or stupid, take your pick) to say this but we have just turned down.

green pips
dreams do come true.
  • #416,510
  • Mar 31, 2011 1:48pm Mar 31, 2011 1:48pm
Quoting sriramsh
If this damn thing is going to just range within few pips till NFP, then expect the buillish trend to be still valid and we might just see a 100 pip retrace during NFP to 1.4080 levels and continue its uptrend back.... and break the 1.4250 levels and start going up....
Sure...play on player. Your money...you're the boss!
  • #416,511
  • Mar 31, 2011 1:51pm Mar 31, 2011 1:51pm
Quoting Cluelus
hOW BOUT THE SPIKES DOING THAT AT THE SAME CANDLE?
we will have to only wait and see..... how it pans out...
  • #416,512
  • Mar 31, 2011 1:59pm Mar 31, 2011 1:59pm
Quoting wannaberich
i know it's kind of bold (or stupid, take your pick) to say this but we have just turned down.

green pips
on march 23rd.
  • #416,513
  • Mar 31, 2011 2:00pm Mar 31, 2011 2:00pm
i meant short term

Quoting attila
on march 23rd.
dreams do come true.
  • #416,514
  • Mar 31, 2011 2:01pm Mar 31, 2011 2:01pm
Quoting wannaberich
i meant short term
cool.
  • #416,515
  • Mar 31, 2011 2:01pm Mar 31, 2011 2:01pm
Quoting Tenshi28
I am generally above consensus-bullish on the US this year, I think the recovery is starting to look more solid that many people think, except for the housing market which is still in the pits. Consequently, I expect employment numbers to continue to improve as they have in the past months, could give dollar a temporary boost. Can't give you hard evidence for my view though, it's just a personal perspective when looking at the whole set of data.

As for the ECB, I think it's more than clear that they won't be able to hold off any longer, those...

did u factor in the unnecessary war on libya and the other wars US is trying to fund?
  • #416,516
  • Mar 31, 2011 2:02pm Mar 31, 2011 2:02pm
Quoting mercy seat
Grüß' Dich ...

Gerne auch nur in PM section ... please explain ... what you want to say with this ...

fib arches ... ?



;-|
Hi Mercy,

hope you had a nice very green day.


I like to find fib confluence zones by combining different fib methods. And since fib arcs are a squaring of price and time they are interesting too.

But at the end I find more and more, that Murrey Math (maybe in combination with fib expansions) is the only tool one really needs.

A little understanding of Elliott wave may be helpful.
  • #416,517
  • Mar 31, 2011 2:03pm Mar 31, 2011 2:03pm
one of my buddies citi said he had a long term euro target. i laughed and said... 1.7 here we come. he laughed and said... our year end target is around 1.1880. i had to ask him again what pair he was talking about. who knows. long term projections are bunk.
  • #416,518
  • Mar 31, 2011 2:03pm Mar 31, 2011 2:03pm
Quoting sisse
lol....

I agree with your view.

TA is scary (waiting for today and tomorrow close), If daily, weekly and monthly close at highs in overextended mode its a "nuclear" combination for a reversal.

On the FA side, agree with your NFP view and the US short term outlook.

On the euro side, the last reports are even more bearish than usual. Irish banks and especially the massive blow on Portugal's 5 years today above 9.6 !!!!!. Portugal and Ireland problems were also digested +/- in charts but not these last blows, price barely...
Excellent analysis. I am with you in favoring option 2 but at this junction it's a really tough call. Also, NFP forecasts have been rather shitty in recent months, so a big surprise number (positive or negative) could make this pair crazy tomorrow.
  • #416,519
  • Mar 31, 2011 2:11pm Mar 31, 2011 2:11pm
any IG Markets PureDeal users experiencing problems with order entry platform?
  • #416,520
  • Mar 31, 2011 2:14pm Mar 31, 2011 2:14pm
hehe, just realized. 2 years ago today i registered with ff (forex farm as i call it, )

time flies....
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