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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #23,701
  • Mar 30, 2011 1:44pm Mar 30, 2011 1:44pm
But on the other hand yet again, drinking alone....

Nah....nothing wrong with it. Great way to take part in some introspective thought.
  • #23,702
  • Mar 30, 2011 8:42pm Mar 30, 2011 8:42pm
i like technicial more because chart doesnt lie but fundamental is based on our own belief . accidents do happen and there is no way to know before who and what is happening every now and then , when that happens technical traders find opportunities to reap while fundamental traders are left stranded.

Quoting charlierich
Who's the man?, who's the man?, took profit at 83...and now long again at 83.150 TP 83.450.

Dear trader my gambling system as you call it has given me 2000 dollars in the last four days, I like fundamental analysis rather than the technician, the technician is more manageable and many indicators suggest that you buy and others sell, but the fundamental rarely lie and always look at the long term, do not just eat crumbs from 10 pips to short, I would say that is gambling, go go 90 is near.....

No regret
No surrender
  • #23,703
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:30pm Mar 30, 2011 9:30pm
I think you have to use both.

Take the jobs report coming out Friday morning. If there is a big deviation from the anticipated then your charts do not mean squat.

But more often than not during the course of the trading day charts are the best thing that we can rely upon.

But during volatile news releases charts are not worth a thing.

The only bad thing about chartists is that they always put too many ifs, may bees, this will happen if that happens only unless this happens first but if this does not happen then this will happen so the exact opposite will take place. Cant lose with that kind of prediction. ....like a palm reader. This way they can always come back later and say they were right and their charts are in perpetual change.

The oracles of Delphi abound.

And please, will some people quit posting charts that have so much BS on them that you can not even see where the actual price action is.
  • #23,704
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:39pm Mar 30, 2011 9:39pm
thank you, love this.

Quoting Astroman
I think you have to use both.

Take the jobs report coming out Friday morning. If there is a big deviation from the anticipated then your charts do not mean squat.

But more often than not during the course of the trading day charts are the best thing that we can rely upon.

But during volatile news releases charts are not worth a thing.

The only bad thing about chartists...
  • #23,705
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:43pm Mar 30, 2011 9:43pm
Citibank liquidity provider buying based on the volume indicator ? maybe you are right but we shall not speculate on their next move shall we or we might get caught out ?


Quoting Beljevina
Stopping volume and the biggest bout of Citibank liquidity provider buying seen since 80.8 (on my M30) - and that launched UJ 200+ pips. Nothing definitive here, although this could be a sign of higher highs - need to see though how the next/few M15/M30 bars print. If we dip below 82.94, then the retrace is not yet done.
  • #23,706
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:02pm Mar 30, 2011 10:02pm
Quoting tankokjian
Citibank liquidity provider buying based on the volume indicator ? maybe you are right but we shall not speculate on their next move shall we or we might get caught out ?
Not really sure what you're trying to say.

I purposefully mentioned it is Citibank because they are in the top 5 of FX liquidity providers. They should have a predominant amount of hedge funds, other banks and fund managers showing up in the tick volume, where as retail traders like you and I are irrelevant with our volumes.

So when using VSA, their tick representations should have on average larger volumes behind them, than say what is passed through as volume on a small broker, with lower tick volumes, of unknown traceback. I trade VSA along with other techniques, so this provides a more accurate edge. There are data feeds that pool together many individual volume sources of forex trading institutions that give a more accurate read than what most broker's volumes show; I mentioned Citibank because it's a viable alternative to those volume levels, that I and others have compared to be closely correlated.

The specific buying level held to BE for a couple of hours and then rallied further. Either way, one could have profited or gotten out BE.
  • #23,707
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:17pm Mar 30, 2011 10:17pm
thanks for your insight.

Quoting Beljevina
Not really sure what you're trying to say.

I purposefully mentioned it is Citibank because they are in the top 5 of FX liquidity providers. They should have a predominant amount of hedge funds, other banks and fund managers showing up in the tick volume, where as retail traders like you and I are irrelevant with our volumes.

So when using VSA, their tick representations should have on average larger volumes behind them, than say what is passed through as volume on a small broker, with lower...
  • #23,708
  • Mar 31, 2011 12:29am Mar 31, 2011 12:29am
Am I back on again?
  • #23,709
  • Mar 31, 2011 12:58am Mar 31, 2011 12:58am
I ordered short at 83.08 yesterday, checking low vol,,, then i plan to take profit at 81.50. you guys think it will be back to 83.00 - 84.00?

12hrs ago 2:00 am tokyo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY 330.png Size: 121 KB


now 14:00pm tokyo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy331.png Size: 86 KB
  • #23,710
  • Mar 31, 2011 1:44am Mar 31, 2011 1:44am
Quoting traderlivel
I ordered short at 83.08 yesterday, checking low vol,,, then i plan to take profit at 81.50. you guys think it will be back to 83.00 - 84.00?

12hrs ago 2:00 am tokyo
Attachment

now 14:00pm tokyo
Attachment
UJ is very unpredictable. As someone said in the FF forum, this is kind of gambling trading this pair on short term or to scalp. I do remember the recent days when it spiked all the way up 100+ pips and then went back down again where it started.

But I am long from 78 and holding it as my long term trading.
  • #23,711
  • Mar 31, 2011 4:19am Mar 31, 2011 4:19am
Quoting PipMaxzz
UJ is very unpredictable. As someone said in the FF forum, this is kind of gambling trading this pair on short term or to scalp. I do remember the recent days when it spiked all the way up 100+ pips and then went back down again where it started.

But I am long from 78 and holding it as my long term trading.
thank you for telling your opinion.
  • #23,712
  • Mar 31, 2011 5:04am Mar 31, 2011 5:04am
Quoting PipMaxzz
UJ is very unpredictable. As someone said in the FF forum, this is kind of gambling trading this pair on short term or to scalp. I do remember the recent days when it spiked all the way up 100+ pips and then went back down again where it started.

But I am long from 78 and holding it as my long term trading.
it sounds strange but lately:
weak USD = intervention = strong UJ
strong USD = stop intervention = weak UJ
So if current move down in USDX ends (where I don't know, maybe 74) downward retrace of UJ is likely
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #23,713
  • Mar 31, 2011 6:28am Mar 31, 2011 6:28am
this is stupid and strange , all usd pairs are moving south but UJ is staying put . who is the clown !!!! grrrrr...

Quoting USD-Bear
it sounds strange but lately:
weak USD = intervention = strong UJ
strong USD = stop intervention = weak UJ
So if current move down in USDX ends (where I don't know, maybe 74) downward retrace of UJ is likely
  • #23,714
  • Mar 31, 2011 2:23pm Mar 31, 2011 2:23pm
Quoting PipMaxzz
UJ is very unpredictable. As someone said in the FF forum, this is kind of gambling trading this pair on short term or to scalp. I do remember the recent days when it spiked all the way up 100+ pips and then went back down again where it started.

But I am long from 78 and holding it as my long term trading.

You're holding this long term, how far do you think this will go? The long term trend is clearly down, as is the USD against most other currencies.

I think if you hold long term long, you'll end up making a loss. In IMHO
I'm watching this currency so closely I'm using windows magnifier
  • #23,715
  • Edited 3:50pm Mar 31, 2011 3:35pm | Edited 3:50pm
Quoting Moneyright
You're holding this long term, how far do you think this will go? The long term trend is clearly down, as is the USD against most other currencies.

I think if you hold long term long, you'll end up making a loss. In IMHO
If you keep trading on yesterday's news, you will never make a profit. Please take a look at the recent comments by FOMC members, with Kocherlakota the latest to join the fray today. The statements have been uniformly hawkish, with some (Kocherlakota) even indicating that a rate hike of 75bps might be needed before the end of 2011. The dollar has fallen consistently over the last 9 months because of QE2. I don't see any reason why it shouldn't rise consistently because of the end of QE2 and a more hawkish monetary policy from the US. Add to it a fairly strong reversal pattern on most long term chart patterns, and you might be the one fighting the trend by shorting U/J.
  • #23,716
  • Mar 31, 2011 5:43pm Mar 31, 2011 5:43pm
Quoting Moneyright
You're holding this long term, how far do you think this will go? The long term trend is clearly down, as is the USD against most other currencies.

I think if you hold long term long, you'll end up making a loss. In IMHO
Adding at every 50 pips. I will hold until 90 Is that too much to ask for?
  • #23,717
  • Mar 31, 2011 7:03pm Mar 31, 2011 7:03pm
Quoting wontfindanam
If you keep trading on yesterday's news, you will never make a profit. Please take a look at the recent comments by FOMC members, with Kocherlakota the latest to join the fray today. The statements have been uniformly hawkish, with some (Kocherlakota) even indicating that a rate hike of 75bps might be needed before the end of 2011. The dollar has fallen consistently over the last 9 months because of QE2. I don't see any reason why it shouldn't rise consistently because of the end of QE2 and a more hawkish monetary policy from the US. Add to it a...
Ignore it buddy, he is holding a short
  • #23,718
  • Mar 31, 2011 9:11pm Mar 31, 2011 9:11pm
Quoting charlierich
Go, go the big long journey is here, missing bit to get to 90, for the moment open to 82.500, closed to 82.700, again opened looking for the TP 83 ..... at 82.750

No Regret
No surreder
I told you guys, iI have been saying it for several days, this is the big long journey, Are You IN? .... Already Took profit at 83 , opened at 83,200 long again.
Look always for the big picture not the small ones....

No Regret
No surrender
  • #23,719
  • Mar 31, 2011 9:37pm Mar 31, 2011 9:37pm
Quoting PipMaxzz
Adding at every 50 pips. I will hold until 90 Is that too much to ask for?
Yes Sir, first goal 90, then looking for 100 (unless something suddenly appears, like a playful chart), but the 90 is piece of cake, sooner or later at most two months.....

No regret
No surrender
  • #23,720
  • Mar 31, 2011 11:17pm Mar 31, 2011 11:17pm
Quoting charlierich
Yes Sir, first goal 90, then looking for 100 (unless something suddenly appears, like a playful chart), but the 90 is piece of cake, sooner or later at most two months.....

No regret
No surrender
88 is a very very very strong resistance, buddy.
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