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  • #415,901
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:55pm Mar 30, 2011 3:55pm
Another "risk-on" supporter today...

"IMF lowers GDP forecasts for US, Japan modestly, raises Eurozone slightly, China flat."

China flat...but, at around 10%!

(source = all over the place!)
  • #415,902
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:56pm Mar 30, 2011 3:56pm
Quoting sisse
Paul, euro reversed at the same place marked with the red box in my charts (FA resistance 1.414x ) from the first sell off on Friday Plosser comments and later on Monday FED rate comments we were talking on Friday and Monday.

Both very major sellers and buyers level are uncovered and confirmed now and everything in between is just noise. With that key info I am done for the day... good luck

sisse
Interesting comment. How do You tell it's the major sellers/buyers entering the market and not the crowd sitting at major S/R levels? Is it the impetus of the move or the specific events that tend to trigger reactions form big boys?
"Put your shoulder to the wheel!"
  • #415,903
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:56pm Mar 30, 2011 3:56pm
Quoting RamsesII
what i'm looking for
Hi Ramses,

very good. Same boat....... :-)
  • #415,904
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:57pm Mar 30, 2011 3:57pm
Quoting fxpreacher
An Irish stress test:

1 week without a pint.
Then they will get a bout of Irish Alzheimers.

That is where you forget everything but the grudges.
  • #415,905
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:59pm Mar 30, 2011 3:59pm
Quoting RamsesII
what i'm looking for
rat
  • #415,906
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:02pm Mar 30, 2011 4:02pm
does anyone have wider spreads now boys?
wtf s goin on?
  • #415,907
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:06pm Mar 30, 2011 4:06pm
Quoting stormtrader
does anyone have wider spreads now boys?
wtf s goin on?
Roll over...

Everyday 5pm EST...

Unless you are fixed spreads, yours will go to shit...

Some don't come back to tight for 30-45 mins...others can last a buck and a half...

Worst time of the day to be trading anyways...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #415,908
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:07pm Mar 30, 2011 4:07pm
Quoting rattyo
dollar strength is coming.. not just yet but will happen... big boys are smart - they won't buy expensive euro when the dollar is cheap...
  • #415,909
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:09pm Mar 30, 2011 4:09pm
Quoting stormtrader
does anyone have wider spreads now boys?
wtf s goin on?
Magix's comment above. Come back @ 7:00 pm est, when Tokyo opens.
  • #415,910
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:10pm Mar 30, 2011 4:10pm
not trading atm but couldnt help to notice that on fxcm when the price drops to the 20s the spread goes to 10 pips so you can not really scalp an obvious profitable trade even for 5 pips....my opinion cause as soon as the price goes back to 26-26 the spread goes back to normal.... oh well
  • #415,911
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:15pm Mar 30, 2011 4:15pm
Quoting stormtrader
not trading atm but couldnt help to notice that on fxcm when the price drops to the 20s the spread goes to 10 pips so you can not really scalp an obvious profitable trade even for 5 pips....my opinion cause as soon as the price goes back to 26-26 the spread goes back to normal.... oh well
Dude...

Seriously...it is daily roll over...nothing to do with price at all...

Check your watch and spreads, same thing happens everyday...

Really....
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #415,912
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:37pm Mar 30, 2011 4:37pm
Quoting Larseg
I am always annoyed
Here is what I see now... need a break, of the new down trend or the old up trend...

Good risk reward though...
Agree with your chart in general.

Just as small difference in definition (but in implications too). In my books that's not a downtrend but a retrace in H4 so a break that min down TL in H4 is a bull flag (or whatever you want to call it) and it will point to a continuation move with a daily outlook and relatively easy to trade short term. .While the break of that big daily up TL will have macro implications (weekly / monthly ) and it will be a lot more complex to trade short term but obviously the new targets and map are huge to the downside.

we'll see

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #415,913
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:48pm Mar 30, 2011 4:48pm
sellers look like they are camping on .4150. i'll be selling some scalps there.
  • #415,914
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:54pm Mar 30, 2011 4:54pm
i believe more that the sellers are waiting for next thursday, for a peak of 1.4280 or 1.4320 .. me aswell... next friday (8th) week closing should be a massive sell off..
Trend is everything.
  • #415,915
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:57pm Mar 30, 2011 4:57pm
11 is still valid (or maybe i am fixated on it, granted there is a short to there). we have the pivot around 10 now.
  • #415,916
  • Mar 30, 2011 5:07pm Mar 30, 2011 5:07pm
Quoting attila
11 is still valid (or maybe i am fixated on it, granted there is a short to there). we have the pivot around 10 now.
mine is at 08. (pp) a run at .4150 then drop. like yesterday i'm guessing. if no run at .4150 then pp soon.
  • #415,917
  • Edited 5:22pm Mar 30, 2011 5:07pm | Edited 5:22pm
Euro is strong. Dollar is gaining strength. Why?Seems BoJ and it's accomplices have won the fight against Speculators.
Everyone is joining the wagon and marching in a line. You fall out of line, You die. Until when?What about funnymentalsSeems we're Break-Dancing these days
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  • #415,918
  • Mar 30, 2011 5:08pm Mar 30, 2011 5:08pm
Quoting proletary
Interesting comment. How do You tell it's the major sellers/buyers entering the market and not the crowd sitting at major S/R levels? Is it the impetus of the move or the specific events that tend to trigger reactions form big boys?
I don't know and I am not going to pretend I know for sure. There are some wishful thinkers around in FF and in other forums they think they can read who is who in forex and probably a couple of insiders who can know for sure but realistically thats impossible IMO.

My comments were relative to the TA / FA and price action at the origin of those moves. The move on Friday was trigger on FED comments, outside of normal hours and in the "middle of nowhere" at the dead hours of the week and it cause a big drop when price recover on Monday, same FED comments and price flew from the same level. Both down moves didn't correspond to any monthly/weekly/daily or intraday Support of Resistance meaning a FA move.

Today test was a confirmation because this time actually was a valid Resistance level (after the prev moves) . In simple words and in my experience when moves originate at "random" places inside of a defined trading range implies some strong new money that they don't give a damn on S/R, TL, Pivots, not even at options barriers etc ,etc, etc came in or out marking a FA R or FA support later.

The same happened on the test of that air support after the moves from the levels mentioned above. Price didn't test any major valid TA level in daily,weekly, monthly and not even the daily lows (which is "easy" in reversal days) despite of been very close to many (I am talking before the fact not now after the fact that everybody can optimize TL and levels) , and hold with huge amount of buying power every intraday push down reversing almost immediately 60 or 70 ticks up.

Traders there from a TA/FA/ PA perspective are clearly buyers that they are beyond the everyday chart, who are they? no clue? why are they buying there and not buying daily or weekly support or the daily TL a few tick below? no clue? are they holding for hike rate or NFP? no clue? hedge? don't know but common sense and basic TA and PA tell me those are not the "average Joe" or the typical swing to the pivot on London close traders.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #415,919
  • Mar 30, 2011 5:27pm Mar 30, 2011 5:27pm
smh.com.au

The Australian market has received clearly positive leads from offshore trading overnight, despite a series of unsettling issues running in various locations around the world.

This morning on the ASX 24, the June share price index futures contract was 22 points higher at 4863. Yesterday, the major local indices rose about 1.4 per cent. The dollar hit a fresh record.

What you need to know

The SPI was 22 points higher at 4863
The $A rose to 103.29 US cents
In the US, the S&P500 rose 8.82 points to 1328.26
In Europe, the FTSE100 rose 16.13 points to 5948.3
Gold rose $US7.40 an ounce to $US1424.90
Oil was down as inventory levels surprised
The Reuters Jefferies CRB Index fell 0.07%


-----------------
FXstreet.com


The euro hit a 10-month high against the yen and rose against the dollar on Wednesday as markets braced for higher euro zone interest rates, while the Australian dollar hit levels last seen in the early 1980s.

The euro erased losses against the U.S. currency after a European Central Bank policymaker said the ECB intends to raise rates gradually, which suggests next week’s expected hike may be the first of several.
  • #415,920
  • Mar 30, 2011 5:29pm Mar 30, 2011 5:29pm
Quoting sisse

Traders there from a TA/FA/ PA perspective are clearly buyers that they are beyond the everyday chart, who are they? no clue? why are they buying there and not buying daily or weekly support or the daily TL a few tick below? no clue? are they holding for hike rate or NFP? no clue? hedge? don't know but common sense and basic TA and PA tell me those are not the "average Joe" or the typical swing to the pivot on London close traders.

sisse
thats what it looks like to me. I don't see power of bulls, i just see bears who are watching the rate hike and the nonfarm data, but the rate hike means a lot more i guess.
Trend is everything.
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