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Sonic R. System

  • #18,841
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:24am Mar 30, 2011 9:24am
Quoting traderathome
GU:

Entered short here at EP = 1.6021 with SL and TPs as shown in pic.
GU:

Added to short trade here at 1.6041, for EP average of 1.6031. Moved SL higher.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,842
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:33am Mar 30, 2011 9:33am
Quoting traderathome
Nando_rich, the way I see your chart your two entries averaged together must have yielded an average price of 1.4080-1.4090.....somewhere in there. And based on your exit, it looks like about 16-18 pips below that average. This means you made about 16-17 pips on each of the two parts of the trade, which is why you state 35 pips profit?

If this is the case, then by convention, you should state only the pips distance from average entry to close, minus spread, as profit. So, in your case, the profit is more like 17 pips. Right? By convention, we...
Yes you right...i took the trades independent...

1st entry: -2 pips
2nd entry: +37 pips

Totaly: +35 pips...

is it wrong?

Regards.
"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #18,843
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:35am Mar 30, 2011 9:35am
Quoting bennyFX
I took this UCHF long setup (wave marked in yellow)

Question here (and I have seen multiple examples before):

How do we manage such trade which take off in our direction
just a little bit but then change to opposite direction.

1) Wait until SL is hit?
2) move SL to BE after the initial move to right direction (and get stopped out more frequently)
3) Take smaller profits along the ride to the top , TP1, TP2, TP3...

I think this is part of optimization of this whole sonicr trading approach.
But key to the success.
small wins vs. generous losses...
Space to let a trade breath sometime pays of.
UCHF now back on initial track an TP1 reached
:-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,844
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:42am Mar 30, 2011 9:42am
Quoting traderathome
UChf:

Just added again to long trade and will calculate EP avg next post. Today is a mixed bag, with USD up against some currencies and down against others. And there seems no rhyme or reason for any of the weak USD moves. I think this pair is under extreme PPM manipulation for low prices right now, for the acquisition of longs for profits later, regardless of all other considerations.
UChf:

53 pips profit on this two week running long trade, just closed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,845
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:46am Mar 30, 2011 9:46am
Quoting nando_rich

I could reenter if i see a clear PA.

Best Regards.
Ok i took this fast trade with a little profit because...

1s it's a very slow and ranging day.
2nd i take in account the master sonic warnings
3rd the london sesion close is near.

Anyway +11 pips in the bank is the thing important.

Best regards and see you tomorrow.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #18,846
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:51am Mar 30, 2011 9:51am
Quoting bennyFX
Space to let a trade breath sometime pays of.
UCHF now back on initial track an TP1 reached
:-)
Congrats...good run!!!

1st half closed and 2nd half SL in BE?? I wait yes...

Talking about "the better volume" it showed us a good ie of "stopped volume in high"...

Best regards.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #18,847
  • Edited 10:15am Mar 30, 2011 9:55am | Edited 10:15am
Quoting nando_rich
Yes you right...i took the trades independent...

1st entry: -2 pips
2nd entry: +37 pips

Totaly: +35 pips...

is it wrong?

Regards.
Yes, it is incorrect. You must average the prices of entries. Then use just that price (as though only a single entry was made) when computing the pips difference to the exit price......all as though only one "part" existed. We don't consider the size or number of parts....all averaged as just one part (where size does not matter).

When evaluating trading methods, no matter how many "parts" or their size, it is all considered "one part", and where size is not considered. Hence, all entries are averaged, and the difference between that average and the single close price is the "pips" made.

Your actual "pips" made (for evaluating trade method) was half of 35, based on this convention. This is totally different then adding up all pips made to see amount of money made. Why is it different? Suppose some rich trader makes one pip, on a 1000 lot trade, and claims to have made $10,000 on a single trade. Is that fair evaluation of method? No.
  • #18,848
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:03am Mar 30, 2011 10:03am
Quoting traderathome
GU:

Added to short trade here at 1.6041, for EP average of 1.6031. Moved SL higher.
GU:

Added to short trade at 1.6061, for EP average of 1.6041.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,849
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:10am Mar 30, 2011 10:10am
Thanks nando.

Yes for 2nd part I moved SL to BE.
But stopped out already.

But still nice profit of 41 pips. :-)

Quoting nando_rich
Congrats...good run!!!

1st half closed and 2nd half SL in BE?? I wait yes...

Talking about "the better volume" it showed us a good ie of "stopped volume in high"...

Best regards.
  • #18,850
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:27am Mar 30, 2011 10:27am
Quoting traderathome
What you are looking at is a new indicator, based on the BetterVolumes v1.4 .mq4 indicator. I have added and cleaned code. You can now see in the Short Name the data relating to the averaging period selected (changed from a default of 100, to 20). You can easily turn the MA line on/off. And it has the same features as the SonicR Volume indicator. The Short Name can be turned on/off for a clearer display with multiple charts on-screen. And the indicator can be turned on/off, or set to display only in a certain range of TFs if you want another indicator...
Here is example of keeping clean chart with multiples on-screen. Note the sub-window has no Short Name showing. In the Volume Analysis indicator, it is turned off.
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  • #18,851
  • Mar 30, 2011 11:33am Mar 30, 2011 11:33am
Quoting traderathome
GU:

Added to short trade at 1.6061, for EP average of 1.6041.
Main long at 1.6024, BE+1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,852
  • Mar 30, 2011 11:53am Mar 30, 2011 11:53am
Quoting traderathome
EU:

Added at 1.4110, for EP average of 1.4100 now. Raised SL above yesterday highs to help protect SL if later there is a whipsaw in price.

USD high impact release later. Some USD pairs are being moved against dollar right now, as though getting best prices for a dollar strength move later. Very speculative, however.
EU:

Added here at 1.4130, for EP average = 1.4110.
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  • #18,853
  • Edited 12:25pm Mar 30, 2011 12:11pm | Edited 12:25pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
Someone is loading up..left and right...

Sonic
EU:

Moves like this, about an hour after the London close, and about the end of lunch hour in NYC, leave no doubt about the BBs will to pump prices, even a couple of days ahead of Friday NFP. Since they pumped, they must be anticipating a dump on Friday.

The lesson here is that when major releases loom in the future, we must adjust our thinking to accept the real possibility of wide swings and whipsaws, even days in advance of major releases. This means only quick trades if SLs are tight. If trades might need time, then it is best if SLs are loose.

For example, this was a 50+ pip move that suddenly came out of nowhere.....hours after the last of the releases earlier today!

There has been downwards pressure on the price all day. No doubt many traders looked for good entries on short positions. So this followup quick spike up by the BBs has the unmistakable stink of hunting SLs on shorts.
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  • #18,854
  • Mar 30, 2011 12:28pm Mar 30, 2011 12:28pm
Closed my Eur/Usd long on this move up. Will look for entry again tomorrow.Bias still long for me. later!
  • #18,855
  • Mar 30, 2011 12:36pm Mar 30, 2011 12:36pm
Quoting traderathome
EU:

Moves like this, about an hour after the London close, and about the end of lunch hour in NYC, leave no doubt about the BBs will to pump prices, even a couple of days ahead of Friday NFP. Since they pumped, they must be anticipating a dump on Friday.

The lesson here is that when major releases loom in the future, we must adjust our thinking to accept the real possibility of wide swings and whipsaws, even days in advance of major releases. This means only quick trades if SLs are tight. If trades might need time, then it is best if SLs are...
I agree totaly on quick trades with small SLs is the way to go in this choopy enviroment.
I think some of this week shorts may still be hoping for a reversal before the end of NY trading hours.If it doesn't happen,then traders with unrealized losses will start to close their positions,stops are triggered,all can push price even higher and the trend accelate at the end of the day or in asia session.
personaly I hope this happens soon,I would hate to see this choopy crap tomorow and friday. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
and also cuz I'm long from 1.4080
regards
  • #18,856
  • Edited 12:56pm Mar 30, 2011 12:44pm | Edited 12:56pm
Quoting Tilt
I agree totaly on quick trades with small SLs is the way to go in this choopy enviroment.
I think some of this week shorts may still be hoping for a reversal before the end of NY trading hours.If it doesn't happen,then traders with unrealized losses will start to close their positions,stops are triggered,all can push price even higher and the trend accelate at the end of the day or in asia session.
personaly I hope this happens soon,I would hate to see this choopy crap tomorow and friday. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
regards...
Tilt, you just reminded me of something. Another benefit to the BBs in orchestrating such a drive up, is that short traders w/o SLs, or with higher SLs, might get worried. So, if the BBs keep the minimal buying and selling going to support the price, as you said, other short traders might capitulate and close their trades. And with the BBs maintaining upwards support of the price, the BBs will be adding to their short positions at higher and higher prices as more short traders give up. It is quite a strategy for the BBs to use to accumulate shorts at favorable prices ahead of a major release......and maybe a major EU dump!

The Weekly volume analysis shows high volume churning (taking profits) on the highest candle. (Ignore volume change anomaly caused by transition to 5 digits at first of year. The analysis is based on just this year.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,857
  • Mar 30, 2011 12:48pm Mar 30, 2011 12:48pm
Quoting traderathome
Tilt, you just reminded me of something....
TAH what is a BB,a new name for PPMs?
sorry didn't catch it lately in posts...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

and yes...even those shorts at around BE or small profit might get scared...

regards
  • #18,858
  • Mar 30, 2011 1:02pm Mar 30, 2011 1:02pm
Quoting Tilt
TAH what is a BB,a new name for PPMs?
sorry didn't catch it lately in posts...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

and yes...even those shorts at around BE or small profit might get scared...

regards
Yes:

BBs = Big Boys (Sonic likes to use this term.....only 3 letters to type)
PPMs = Professional Price Manipulators (synonymous with BBs)
CCBs = Conniving Central Banks, or
CBBs = Central Bank Bastards

....as you can see, the more descriptive, the more letters required!
  • #18,859
  • Mar 30, 2011 1:29pm Mar 30, 2011 1:29pm
Big Bastards
  • #18,860
  • Mar 30, 2011 1:41pm Mar 30, 2011 1:41pm
Quoting stond
Main long at 1.6024, BE+1
Closed profit of 41 pips.

Best regards and see you tomorrow.
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