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  • #415,001
  • Mar 29, 2011 10:48am Mar 29, 2011 10:48am
Quoting cloggie
Trading the fix here and saw your post. Sisse and I have been going about Portugal since the start of the year and both of us saw this coming a mile away



Europe is doing exactly what is needed, Portugal may not like it, but what Portugal thinks is irrelevant to the rest of Europe. Trichet and Germany have the right priorities, which is obviously welcomed by the markets, look at Euro and Bund yields. The periphery is becoming a casualty, a cheap price to pay.



Post Colonial? You guys have been annexed by the FI boys, you just don't realise...

If Portugal's PM had the majority, I paid to see Markets win this battle.
Of course that new government will kiss IMF. Ireland and Greece were the weakest link, Portugal fought but the opposition leader here in Portugal helped the other side.

All economic forecast jungle saying Portugal will be bailout in December, then February, then March, now for some next weekend, and for others next June.
Sure, they are good to do forecasts.
I have wrote here some years ago, about the invisible war, now are visible for all. And I wrote here that with Socrates as PM, bailout was out, now he's out and Markets are doing the last strike.

What Portugal should do it is to DEFAULT. Leave Euro and dive into the new world era. Try to find out what it is.
But Portuguese are weak, do not have the nerves to see the new future that belongs to China, Brazil.
  • #415,002
  • Mar 29, 2011 10:51am Mar 29, 2011 10:51am
Quoting BoredToLoose
If Portugal's PM had the majority, I paid to see Markets win this battle.
.

You haven't learned a simple lesson at all, the market always wins. There has never been a government that took on the market and won. You guys can vote in a cow as PM for all the market cares, the market dictates what this little spending trip is going to cost you guys, defaulting will mean nothing either, the market will make back every penny you guys decide to default on. FI is boring, but very profitable.

Keep in mind a little nugget in your defense of Portugal (which I can understand as you feel patriotic) defaulting will kill your banking system as it holds such a large part of the debt internally that each and every large bank in Portugal will be out of business overnight.

The market is going to dictate its terms to you and you can grumble all you want, you will have no choice in the matter.

I know this sounds harsh and please don't take it personally. This is how capitalism works.
  • #415,003
  • Mar 29, 2011 10:53am Mar 29, 2011 10:53am
Quoting cloggie
Portugal not refinancing its debt next month will have no bearing at all on the rest of Europe, it will just set you guys back to the stone ages for a generation, your choice (not really..)

And Europe did not "give" anything to Portugal, you guys just could not budget your expenses and went silly like a kid in a sweetshop.
How's Spain doing? Not so great really. What's their bailout number look like and where is all the cash coming from. The belt tightening mentality isn't working, won't work... etc. Oh wait... they don't need a bailout.
  • #415,004
  • Mar 29, 2011 10:55am Mar 29, 2011 10:55am
  •  Rgkc
  • | Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Never stop learning about forex! | 419 Posts
Quoting cloggie
You haven't learned a simple lesson at all, the market always wins. There has never been a government that took on the market and won. You guys can vote in a cow as PM for all the market cares, the market dictates what this little spending trip is going to cost you guys, defaulting will mean nothing either, the market will make back every penny you guys decide to default on. FI is boring, but very profitable.

Keep in mind a little nugget in your defense of Portugal (which I can understand as you feel patriotic) defaulting will kill your banking...

Cloggie, what you expect for the rest of today?
Studing..............
  • #415,005
  • Mar 29, 2011 10:56am Mar 29, 2011 10:56am
Quoting Rgkc
Cloggie, what you expect for the rest of today?

Nothing much really, not even looking at it, just traded the fix. IF you are a short term trader, keep selling the rallies for a while longer.
  • #415,006
  • Mar 29, 2011 10:57am Mar 29, 2011 10:57am
Quoting cloggie
Nothing much really, not even looking at it, just traded the fix. IF you are a short term trader, keep selling the rallies for a while longer.
Whats up cloggs... how was the vacation?
  • #415,007
  • Mar 29, 2011 10:58am Mar 29, 2011 10:58am
Quoting Venice
Whats up cloggs... how was the vacation?

Yeah was good, going again on Thursday.
  • #415,008
  • Mar 29, 2011 10:59am Mar 29, 2011 10:59am
Good setup for EURO Intraday

waiting on close 2 min more for Bullish Engulfing Pattern that supporting by hammer or morning star with GOOD R/R

Jess
Attached Image
  • #415,009
  • Mar 29, 2011 11:01am Mar 29, 2011 11:01am
Quoting cloggie
Yeah was good, going again on Thursday.
So you will miss the April Fools here in FF, hehe..
  • #415,010
  • Mar 29, 2011 11:01am Mar 29, 2011 11:01am
Quoting cloggie
Nothing much really, not even looking at it, just traded the fix. IF you are a short term trader, keep selling the rallies for a while longer.

Am done for the day, nothing worth puttin' money on in this pair right now.
  • #415,011
  • Mar 29, 2011 11:02am Mar 29, 2011 11:02am
Quoting Jess leo
Good setup for EURO Intraday

waiting on close 2 min more for Bullish Engulfing Pattern that supporting by hammer or morning star with GOOD R/R

Jess
Bought 1.40896
SL 1.40432
TP 1.41454

Jess
  • #415,012
  • Mar 29, 2011 11:17am Mar 29, 2011 11:17am
Quoting cloggie
You haven't learned a simple lesson at all, the market always wins. There has never been a government that took on the market and won. You guys can vote in a cow as PM for all the market cares, the market dictates what this little spending trip is going to cost you guys, defaulting will mean nothing either, the market will make back every penny you guys decide to default on. FI is boring, but very profitable.

Keep in mind a little nugget in your defense of Portugal (which I can understand as you feel patriotic) defaulting will kill your banking...
I always knew! But it is painful to watch and to live.
I am doing what my heart tells me to do and to write.
The same market that started this crisis is the same market that will kill it.

I read today Mr.Clinton talking about this and to the world apologize USA, says something about how markets are living and I hope that this same markets will die one day.

P.S. I am not Communist, anarchist or other "ist" and I believe that the lucky ones should live their luckiest but do not forget and do not "kill" the unfortunate ones.

With this crisis we see that the dream of some about EUROLAND is dying slowly.

There are some points that Portugal has advantage to dilute some of this crisis for medium term.
I am talking about the price of oil and the bet Portugal is doing in renewable energy, will drastically reduce oil dependence in next decade, some billions Portugal will save with that.

I am only a spectator waiting to see other Euro levels to buy some dollars, and then wait to see how will be Euroland in 2012.
  • #415,013
  • Mar 29, 2011 11:19am Mar 29, 2011 11:19am
Quoting BoredToLoose
If Portugal's PM had the majority, I paid to see Markets win this battle.
Of course that new government will kiss IMF. Ireland and Greece were the weakest link, Portugal fought but the opposition leader here in Portugal helped the other side.

All economic forecast jungle saying Portugal will be bailout in December, then February, then March, now for some next weekend, and for others next June.
Sure, they are good to do forecasts.
I have wrote here some years ago, about the invisible war, now are visible for all. And I wrote here that with Socrates as PM, bailout was out, now he's out and Markets are doing the last strike.

What Portugal should do it is to DEFAULT. Leave Euro and dive into the new world era. Try to find out what it is.
But Portuguese are weak, do not have the nerves to see the new future that belongs to China, Brazil.
I don't think is about "nerves" but economic and Geographic realities. Not even the "all mighty" British with all the euroskepticism can live outside of Europe. Is a reality like it or not. Portugal free riding is not even an option.

As long as Portugal (Politicians especially) keeps blaming, the "rich" Europe, the US, debt holders, speculators, the euro, etc ,etc. Portugal is doom to be a sluggish economy with or without the euro.

Portugal's economic growth has averaged less than 1 percent a year in the past decade !!!, and let's not start with other macroeconomic and social numbers because it will be worse.

While Portugal has been in the EU for over 25 years, the other late comparable members like Spain and Ireland they were even in worse economic position when they join the EU, and look at them now, thousand of miles away from Portugal. Not to mention the "new members" only less than a decade ago from the East, all of them passing Portugal and taking all the economic opportunities, only the old Greece share the same lethargic economic state after all this years.

IMO, there is not point in burying the head in the sand, what Portugal needs is strong structural reforms and economic growth with sound market policies., the rest is Bs.

If they couln't not even benefit from the free bit a pieces (CAP, subsidies, etc) and massive business opportunities on the EU and all the huge protectionism on trade and etc that Portugal benefit from in the last 25 years, what makes you think a new lonely free rider could be born.....

Portugal need to deal with the economic problems, generate growth and business and after start dreaming on become a new "Mediterranean tiger", meanwhile It has to pay it's obligations already signed, wasted and misused, like or not to show that they are going in the right direction for the future....defaulting although good for the Euro and EZ, it will sadly only perpetuate a sluggish Portugal for the next generation.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #415,014
  • Mar 29, 2011 11:19am Mar 29, 2011 11:19am
Still short. Target is 4010. Were in a pivot zone so I still expect it to touch back down to test support

If not today atleast within the next two days.
Trading j16 PA on the daily chart btw
  • #415,015
  • Mar 29, 2011 11:24am Mar 29, 2011 11:24am
  •  Rgkc
  • | Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Never stop learning about forex! | 419 Posts
Quoting Dyekid217
Still short. Target is 4010. Were in a pivot zone so I still expect it to touch back down to test support

If not today atleast within the next two days.
Trading j16 PA on the daily chart btw


I also liked it that way.
But I don't think so....
Studing..............
  • #415,016
  • Mar 29, 2011 11:27am Mar 29, 2011 11:27am
Quoting BoredToLoose
I always knew! But it is painful to watch and to live.
I am doing what my heart tells me to do and to write.
The same market that started this crisis is the same market that will kill it.

I read today Mr.Clinton talking about this and to the world apologize USA, says something about how markets are living and I hope that this same markets will die one day.

P.S. I am not Communist, anarchist or other "ist" and I believe that the lucky ones should live their luckiest but do not forget and do not "kill" the unfortunate ones.

With this crisis...
Euroland is not going to die. You have been defending Portugal here to no end and have had to deal with a lot of critisism from both Sisse and I. I read between the lines that you are slowly coming around to our way of thinking when it comes to the fundamentals regarding your homeland.

The best thing Portugal can do now is what the UK is going through, cut, cut and cut some more. Pull up the bootstraps, get back to work and work yourselves out of the hole.

This is not the end of Portugal, it is the end of Portugal mismanaging its finances for at least 2 generations as the memory of it will be so sore to most of you.

Politicians and newspapers in your country love to blame the outside world, this is what I like in the UK. Most there have accepted that the previous government seriously screwed things up and they need to do something about it there.

Your last government took away the future of this generation, the only thing you can do now is make it better for the next one.
  • #415,017
  • Mar 29, 2011 11:33am Mar 29, 2011 11:33am
rat
  • #415,018
  • Mar 29, 2011 11:35am Mar 29, 2011 11:35am
Quoting sisse
I don't think is about "nerves" but economic and Geographic realities. Not even the "all mighty" British with all the euroskepticism...
...everything you wrote is correct, there are guilts in our politicians, lot of guilts, but here the problem is how markets are reading the numbers.
I think you are from Spain, do not thinks that Spain is out of the markets targets if Portugal get a bailout. Spain Banking system and property are not so sound that in Portugal for example, every country because of this crisis have their own Problems.
Greece was the first because of the direct link to USA problems, then Irish banks with lot of that trash, now Portugal is because its high debt, but others have highest, Spain might be because of the Hole in some banks and the property bubble that might not be completed emptied, then Belgium, Italy and so on.
Germany is the center of our zone, they lead and we must follow, no doubt about it, and if EuroZone want to have finally a strong area, should once for all gets to the next step. One budget, same taxes, eurobonds, strict policies and I dare to say one leader and once for all to clean the mind borders.
This Euro Zone is kaput with actual standards.
  • #415,019
  • Mar 29, 2011 11:38am Mar 29, 2011 11:38am
Quoting BoredToLoose
Germany is the center of our zone, they lead and we must follow, no doubt about it, and if EuroZone want to have finally a strong area, should once for all gets to the next step. One budget, same taxes, eurobonds, strict policies and I dare to say one leader and once for all to clean the mind borders.
This Euro Zone is kaput with actual standards.
Yeah, cuz that worked out so well the last time it was tried...



Enter Ethnic Cleansing Comments Below....
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #415,020
  • Mar 29, 2011 11:39am Mar 29, 2011 11:39am
Quoting Rgkc
I also liked it that way.
But I don't think so....
I will reconsider my position at the end of the daily close. We do have a nice bearish outside bar on the 4Hr
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