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  • #161
  • Feb 2, 2011 2:54pm Feb 2, 2011 2:54pm
Quoting Marv
duffypratt, thanks for clarifying.

I disagree then.



Until you can mathematically prove otherwise, winners and losers are randomly distributed. The "psychological errors" that the losing traders may make don't skew the overall long-term distribution nor make it "non-random".

Oh and just a side-note: A "random distribution" is not necessarily Gaussian (many seem to assume that random = Gaussian). Here's Wolfram's definition:

[i]"Random distribution: A statistical distribution in which the variates occur with probabilities...
I don't think this is an area that is subject to "mathematical proof." Suppose you found a set of data that appeared to vary from the norm in an extreme way. Does this prove that your distribution assumptions were wrong, or perhaps you just ran into an extreme outlier? Math won't get you to a positive conclusion on that question.

Basically, I think we understand each other, and simply disagree. That's OK by me.
  • #162
  • Feb 2, 2011 3:02pm Feb 2, 2011 3:02pm
Quoting iTrader
But you don't mention that he made an aggregated loss of 50 million $ in 1987/88 forcing him to stop managing capital of clients.
Also the turtle system which was very successful and made this 175 millions till 1986, then had drastic drops in performance making huge losses... and till 2010 it never became a winning system again.
There is always a little luck involved to find the right system in the right time ... because market changes but a strict system never changes.
I didn't mention his blow-up. To a certain extent, it appeared that the blow-up occured because Dennis stopped following his own rules. There were some further complications from the situation with Drexel Burnham, if I remember correctly. The thing is, his run of success doesn't prove that he had any skill. Nor does his blow up show that he was unlucky.

Here's one point I want to make, however. If you believe that markets change, I think it almost necessarily follows that you believe that they are non-random. No sane person says roulette wheels change, and thus you need to change your roulette system from time to time. Truly random systems, I think, are also basically static -- your expectations from a random system would not change over time.
  • #163
  • Feb 2, 2011 4:43pm Feb 2, 2011 4:43pm
Hi,

first post here.

I'll give my notion of the subject and my experience in a nut shell:

1) it's possible to earn good money trading Forex, but 3 things are absolutely necessary: never ever enter in a trade without a in-depth study of the pair, wich means it can't be lightly traded like stocks; an already demo-tested strategy; and a mindset that can stand high stress situations.

One must ask himself if one really wants to be trading currencies...there are other and a lot more easier trading options.

2) I'm a fairly recent forex trader (amateur). When i started to trade currencies it was like a slap in the face: trading equities (had some years on those) seemed like baby-trading.
Now, most of my trading income comes from trading the EurUsd (!). I see it now as faster way to achieve my financial goals.

3) when i'm asked about recommending forex trading i immediatly try to put people in the true reality of this probabilities game. I'll say to them: STOP! "Think about that really carefully", and show them a video or two that i made of my self trading (just the monitor images).
Most get scared: that's when i recomend the reading of a lot of books first, so that they don't trigger-haply-lose all their money.

thanks,
  • #164
  • Feb 3, 2011 3:33am Feb 3, 2011 3:33am
Quoting boxingislife
after 3 years of losing and eventually break even and lookin and trying all kinds of things, im now starting to make money more consistently day after day.
so yes u can make money in fx and the best advice i could give u is find a system that works for u or a strategy actually and follow it. discipline is one of the most important things u can have in this game. and thats what is helping me now.
Thanks boxingislife for sharing this info. You make me hope. I think to be still on the losing side, of course I win a lot of times but at the end, the bank wins
  • #165
  • Feb 3, 2011 6:43am Feb 3, 2011 6:43am
I couldn't agree more to the guys that mentioned following the rules and staying disciplined and true to it. I am a fairly new trader myself(6 months demo and live) But the one thing that my teacher thought me here is that. Psychology is 95% of the game 5% skill.. If you could find a system that works for you and follow it to the letter you will make money. The reason why systems work is the blame is not on you when you lose a trade(if you follow your trading plan correctly) thus you don't get depressed and make stupid decisions.

Read this once from a great trader.

"You can lose on a bad bet and also you can lose in a good bet. But if you win in a good bet you win bigger. Respect your risk"
  • #166
  • Mar 27, 2011 11:04pm Mar 27, 2011 11:04pm
Quoting neil421
following the rules and staying disciplined and true to it
Hi,
discipline and patient is what I think is the key. discipline to be able to keep studying and practicing,, and then to also walk away after you made a win or make your goal...
patience to wait for the right set up, and then discipline to not trigger until you have the right set up, thats the hard part for me
sometimes i want to enter a trade but I have to hold myself back, I hate looking at the market move and saying "i should of took that trade!" but then I found the same pleasure as i do in a winning trade just by watching the market move saying "i'm glad i didnt take that trade!".
If you can train yourself to find pleasure just by watching the market move and saying "im glad I didnt make that trade" then you are really close to success I think, because that means you learned patience and disciple not to enter at a bad time.
Im one of those guys who quit there job to trade full time and learn, it has been very very hard,,, and two years later this is my first profitable month. I didnt find a special system, in fact, I figured out most systems come down to one thing, support and resistance, so I basically use correlation and s/r breaks to figure out where price is headed and then enter, but only after patiently waiting being disciplined enough to not enter until I feel 100% confident, and the funny thing is I still stress everytime I have an open order! anyways, check out my results if you want. this is just demo results but they mirror my live results because everytime I entered I used two accounts, real and demo. these results dont reflect my true lot size, account size, or t/p s/l since it is just demo, but it represents the true hit rate so far.
~Tim
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #167
  • Mar 27, 2011 11:27pm Mar 27, 2011 11:27pm
Quoting tim112779
Im one of those guys who quit there job to trade full time and learn, it has been very very hard,,, and two years later this is my first profitable month.
That is hardly impressive.

How about you come back after at least two years of profitable trading? At least then you might be a little entitled to offer people advice on profitably trading for a living.
  • #168
  • Mar 27, 2011 11:44pm Mar 27, 2011 11:44pm
Quoting Marv
That is hardly impressive.

How about you come back after at least two years of profitable trading? At least then you might be a little entitled to offer people advice on profitably trading for a living.
your right... Sorry if I came off as trying to give advice. It is more or less just my experience with trading that I was typing about.
so please, anyone who read my post DO NOT TAKE IT AS ADVICE

however, in a way, I wanted it to seem unimpressive, because that is very unimpressive that it took me two years to have semi decent results. That is how hard trading can be for someone like me, the average Joe
~Tim
  • #169
  • Mar 28, 2011 12:34am Mar 28, 2011 12:34am
Start here. Don't wind up here at last resort like most of us traders do. Start Here! Watch all 7 episodes over and over until it all sinks in!

Inserted Video
  • #170
  • Mar 28, 2011 4:36am Mar 28, 2011 4:36am
Quoting SatchFan
Start here. Don't wind up here at last resort like most of us traders do. Start Here! Watch all 7 episodes over and over until it all sinks in!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypCjo...ist=QL&index=1
Thanks for sharing. Already Watched 1, will watch all 7 today.
  • #171
  • Mar 28, 2011 10:44am Mar 28, 2011 10:44am
Quoting SatchFan
Start here. Don't wind up here at last resort like most of us traders do. Start Here! Watch all 7 episodes over and over until it all sinks in!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypCjo...ist=QL&index=1
thank you!
  • #172
  • Mar 28, 2011 12:16pm Mar 28, 2011 12:16pm
Quoting JohnFX_King
Thanks for sharing. Already Watched 1, will watch all 7 today.
Quoting Cmoss
thank you!
Your Welcome! I either watch or listen to this at least once a day now. Might be in the shower or in the car or whatever, I'm going to drill this into my head until it becomes second nature and I don't have to think about it anymore!
Also, click on the link in my signature, that's a good read and Rules 1 & 2 are golden! POP has changed my view on trading for the better also!
  • #173
  • Mar 28, 2011 12:31pm Mar 28, 2011 12:31pm
George Soros, that Japanese housewife who owed 36,000,000 Yen in taxes, and the top 5% of the traders
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #174
  • Mar 29, 2011 5:06am Mar 29, 2011 5:06am
Quoting SatchFan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypCjo...ist=QL&index=1

The problem is he's just a talking head. Most supposed pros all they do is talk and I think you would find this is where they make their primary income. The real traders are trading and not yapping about it.

That's my personal opinion as I bought Forex Made Easy when I first got started in this nearly 10yrs ago now and the company behind wize trade is the same company that sold 4X made easy.

But what happened to 4X made easy you ask? IMHO it was better for me to shut the talking head babble off and think for myself. In the end it's going to be your responsibility and not some talking head.

If it works for you great, but I can tell you from experience that you don't need it.
  • #175
  • Mar 29, 2011 11:46am Mar 29, 2011 11:46am
Quoting pip_seeker
The problem is he's just a talking head. Most supposed pros all they do is talk and I think you would find this is where they make their primary income. The real traders are trading and not yapping about it.
Quoting pip_seeker
I can tell you from experience that you don't need it.
You are absolutely correct.

When I was new to this business, his material impressed me because it made a lot of sense. But I realized later that what he's preaching about is nothing more than commonsense. For example he talks about how individual trade results are randomly distributed around your expectation and you should detach yourself from the individual results etc. He makes it sound like some great new discovery, and you feel "wow! this makes sense!".

The fact is, nothing he says isn't already common knowledge to the world's financial traders, and nothing he says will give you a real edge. It might help/motivate you to work on your discipline/mindset and pay attention to basic behavioral stuff like that, but do not forget: All the personal psychology and money management education of the world won't help you create a real edge, it's your bet selection strategy/mechanism that either does, or doesn't. Focus on that.
  • #176
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:34am Mar 30, 2011 4:34am
Quoting Marv
You are absolutely correct.

When I was new to this business, his material impressed me because it made a lot of sense. But I realized later that what he's preaching about is nothing more than commonsense. For example he talks about how individual trade results are randomly distributed around your expectation and you should detach yourself from the individual results etc. He makes it sound like some great new discovery, and you feel "wow! this makes sense!".

The fact is, nothing he says isn't already common knowledge to the world's financial...
So Marv, can you say something that will give us the real edge? I am really curious what that may be
  • #177
  • Jul 16, 2011 8:47am Jul 16, 2011 8:47am
you get good at trading by not thinking about the $$$ but thinking about winning. If you think about money, you take it out your account which means you'll make less. You'll also take more risks and stupid trades.
Think about winning and you'll make good trades and make lots of money.

I don't think it matters how much you start with, my friend started with £300 in January, it's July and he has £5,000. That's an interest rate of 50% per month, he doesn't care about the money, he cares about his win/ loss percentage, a lot more important. Admittedly £5,000 isn't a lot or nearly enough to live of, but with his interest rates, it will be soon, and trading isn't his job.
  • #178
  • Sep 29, 2012 11:34am Sep 29, 2012 11:34am
Quoting smjones
I know at least 5 who make over 1 million a year that are on this forum, They just do not want that info to be public. I have seen some of their statements.

For them the focus is not on the money. They still trade when the action is happening, and if that means getting up in the middle of the night, they get up in the middle of the night. They do not think to much about the money, they are always thinking about their next trade and learning from the previous ones. Three of these five trade several instruments of which Forex is one. 2 trade exclusively...
this is what i have been looking for. some words of encouragement... forex trading is not easy. and if you enter forex trading with a view of buying a house and a ferrari by next week you will end up in debt....
taking things slow, and applying what you have learnt over some time is the key, and most of all patience.
  • #179
  • Sep 29, 2012 11:46am Sep 29, 2012 11:46am
Quoting Marv
You are absolutely correct.

When I was new to this business, his material impressed me because it made a lot of sense. But I realized later that what he's preaching about is nothing more than commonsense. For example he talks about how individual trade results are randomly distributed around your expectation and you should detach yourself from the individual results etc. He makes it sound like some great new discovery, and you feel "wow! this makes sense!".

The fact is, nothing he says isn't already common knowledge to the world's financial...
this is completely true. people can show you how they made money trading forex, their charts, but that is just supposed to give you hope and help you trade forwards. i my self i am an aspiring trader. i tried at first listening to people. plotting what people are plotting, but that really chewed me up. then i started putting what i see and what i learn from the forums and realized that with everything people say, it all comes down to you and the final decision to open a trade lies in you. believe in yourself, practice wel, and trade wisely.
  • #180
  • Sep 29, 2012 11:53am Sep 29, 2012 11:53am
Quoting lonespruce
Aim for mediocre results and you will achieve them. I'm no pro - but why would you put so much effort into something that you think will only bring you enough money for a holiday? Wouldn't you be better off doing a night class and getting a better job?

Rant over - No offence intended.
i second you on that. aim for the roof and you will reach a few ft below the roof, but aim for the sky and u will sure succeed. enter forex trading with an open mind and beliv in yourself. people have done it. some people trade forex full time, so why cant you be one of those people who do it. it just takes, hard work, smart work, determination, and beliving in yourself...
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