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EURUSD

  • #414,661
  • Mar 29, 2011 2:29am Mar 29, 2011 2:29am
Quoting JohnFX_King
[ 1.4130 long EURUSD ]
[ 1.4095 Stop Loss ]
what is your exit strategy ?
  • #414,662
  • Mar 29, 2011 2:32am Mar 29, 2011 2:32am
Quoting rattyo
I have 2 small doggies to look after they always need new clothes toys beds etc.
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  • #414,663
  • Mar 29, 2011 2:46am Mar 29, 2011 2:46am
  •  gdaym8
  • | Joined Jan 2011 | Status: You Never go broke making a profit | 71 Posts
Quoting sisse
IMO, the only thing left to be priced in the uptrend since January is the actual ECB rate with the pre-positioning on NFP this Friday. After that a new page will be open ....

sisse

Hi Sisse
What do you think the outcome will be on the either or both,
Always remember "Logic" has NO place in the Forex markets
  • #414,664
  • Mar 29, 2011 2:48am Mar 29, 2011 2:48am
Quoting sisse
IMO, the only thing left to be priced in the uptrend since January is the actual ECB rate with the pre-positioning on NFP this Friday. After that a new page will be open ....

sisse
Agree so until something actually changes or happens extending the range or just playing the current range are my view ,could take portugal couple weeks to succumb to the bailout,could be the expected couple months before lybia settles ,a week before we find out about rate hike in eur.

US seem to be confirming current stance on rates and qe are staying same till june.
I feel the range could extend to 3850 using 1.4000 as a pivot maybe a test up to 1.4300/1.45 until something decisive happens. expecting maybe one or two 150 pip indecisive legs before a 300 pipper tests higher or lower.
Currently cautiously trying to position to be in the bulk of the 300 pipper.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #414,665
  • Mar 29, 2011 2:56am Mar 29, 2011 2:56am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UploadImage.png Size: 75 KB


Correction am looking for Lower high or Higher high to form a direction,currently long from 4100 with initial entry .based on 4hr t/f its the first L/L since 14/02
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #414,666
  • Mar 29, 2011 2:59am Mar 29, 2011 2:59am
not traded london open 4 a while, where's the massive sell order @ 8:20am gmt??? you could set your watch by it back in january...
  • #414,667
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:00am Mar 29, 2011 3:00am
Quoting gdaym8
What do you think the outcome will be on the either or both,
both.
  • #414,668
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:06am Mar 29, 2011 3:06am
Quoting FibbinArchie
not traded london open 4 a while, where's the massive sell order @ 8:20am gmt??? you could set your watch by it back in january...
London open surey has to be the best time to be trading
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #414,669
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:07am Mar 29, 2011 3:07am
Quoting FibbinArchie
not traded london open 4 a while, where's the massive sell order @ 8:20am gmt??? you could set your watch by it back in january...
something to do with that pain in the @rse dst shift maybe? anyone?
  • #414,670
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:08am Mar 29, 2011 3:08am
Quoting DarkWolF
London open surey has to be the best time to be trading
it sure was back in jan, had to close my shorts @ b/e this morning...

given up on hit 'n' miss tokyo, the opportunity cost of missing frankie and london open is far too great, so early nights from now on...

maybe we'll get it @ 9:20 this morning, 10 mins to go, staying flat, maybe scalp the momentum if it comes, was short based on it, so not entirely sure what it's doing, if in doubt stay out...
  • #414,671
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:11am Mar 29, 2011 3:11am
Quoting FibbinArchie
something to do with that pain in the @rse dst shift maybe? anyone?
The daylight saving changes do mess with my availability to trade london open. Becomes a royal pain in the a$$ as now I can more often than not be home in time to trade it once it changes I tend to miss it. Once we have the change out of DST here in Australia I have no chance at getting to it when I am at work.
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #414,672
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:13am Mar 29, 2011 3:13am
Quoting gdaym8
Hi Sisse
What do you think the outcome will be on the either or both,
A bit early to map NFP in intraday levels today. There is plenty of reports before so we can exchange a better picture during Friday sluggish hours before the report.

In general I expect a NFP in line with expectation, so limited move and not fundamental drive towards the FA NFP direction but to the final positioning on ECB rate announcement the week after.

On the rate, all TA in the last 3 weeks is strongly pointing to a major spike up on the announcement and the outlook I posted 2 weeks on a deeper retrace before the hike is fading by the minute (thats why I have been sidelined on daily swings) an it will be completely canceled on a break above 1.420x this week.

The 3 scenarios I got are 1) an overshoot on expectation to a bigger than .25% (or a hike .25% with a very hawkish conference) hike is possible (monetary policy wise) and mapping that into my fundamental chart will lead us to 1.46xx.

2) If hike is as expected .25%, 1.431x yearly resistance seems unavoidable. and finally 3) A undershoot in expectation (also open given the recent Portugal and Ireland short term circumstances) will lead us on the same limbo of the last 2 weeks trading on exhaustion levels on overextended trend with any move cap on 1.431x / 1.399x until further developments on the dollar or euro side. We can check some charts later also on the hours before ECB announcement.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #414,673
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:13am Mar 29, 2011 3:13am
Should be interesting to see what kind of reaction the market has to all this news due out soonish.
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #414,674
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:15am Mar 29, 2011 3:15am
Quoting sisse
A bit early to map NFP in intraday levels today. There is plenty of reports before so we can exchange a better picture during Friday sluggish hours before the report.

In general I expect a NFP in line with expectation, so limited move and not fundamental drive towards the FA NFP direction but to the final positioning on ECB rate announcement the week after.

On the rate, all TA in the last 3 weeks is strongly pointing to a major spike up on the announcement and the outlook I posted 2 weeks on a deeper retrace before the hike ago is fading by the...
rates are fast becoming the hot topic, both eur and usd side...
  • #414,675
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:15am Mar 29, 2011 3:15am
Quoting FibbinArchie
it sure was back in jan, had to close my shorts @ b/e this morning...

given up on hit 'n' miss tokyo, the opportunity cost of missing frankie and london open is far too great, so early nights from now on...

Right now you can easily mistake the PA for a "normal " Asian session.
You should be able to spike up the price to 14168 with about 2 minilots long position.
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #414,676
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:17am Mar 29, 2011 3:17am
Quoting Gleneagles
Right now you can easily mistake the PA for a "normal " Asian session.
You should be able to spike up the price to 14168 with about 2 minilots long position.
gonna hit and run trade till I get a feel for it again, yeah this isn't what I'm used to for london open, tight range due to nfps maybe?
  • #414,677
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:18am Mar 29, 2011 3:18am
Quoting mercy seat
Yes ... intraday outlook ... I do not prefer to try the downside for a longer timeframe ...

Not as long as those mentioned levels still hold ...

But as mentioned here before ... in case of breach of below 1.3980 zone these structures (neutralized atm) may change then ...

Not in a bearish stance without any cross of below those mentioned limits ...

Only intraday is neutral atm ...



;-|
Schön schön ... here we are ... at least best Idea has been long from 1.4069 - 1.4060 area towards mentioned zones ...

Stalling here for a while ...

Time enough for some counter trades ... and so we did from 1.41437 ...

Partial profits at 1.41305 ...

Profit stop at 1.41419 ...

Various Entry stops that I do not mention here ... other pairs are funny as well ...

Time for some calculations and new developments ...



;-|
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-03-29_08h38_ EURUSD _ min005 _ (2Dy) candle + TL.PNG Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-03-29_09h46_ EURUSD _ min005 _ (2Dy) candle + TL.PNG Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-03-29_10h06_ EURUSD _ min005 _ (2Dy) candle + TL.PNG Size: 23 KB
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #414,678
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:22am Mar 29, 2011 3:22am
Quoting FibbinArchie
gonna hit and run trade till I get a feel for it again, yeah this isn't what I'm used to for london open, tight range due to nfps maybe?
We had a smallish range yesterday and normally I would expect a range > average today, so far it is looks bullish but upside momentum is slow. ATR projection for topside is at 14168.
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #414,679
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:23am Mar 29, 2011 3:23am
Quoting mercy seat
Schön schön ... here we are ... at least best Idea has been long from 1.4069 - 1.4060 area towards mentioned zones ...

Stalling here for a while ...

Time enough for some counter trades ... and so we did from 1.41437 ...

Partial profits at 1.41305 ...

Profit stop at 1.41419 ...

Various Entry stops that I do not mention here ... other pairs are funny as well ...

Time for some calculations and new developments ...



;-|
shorted all the spikes so far for scalps, entered a swing position short from 38 in anticipation of london open reversal to test bottom of intraday range, it never came, yet, so closed @ b/e, watching...
  • #414,680
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:27am Mar 29, 2011 3:27am
Hola!

Im done playing long intra on EU, but I still think it has some action left on the upside for around 3-4 more hours... How much is another thing...

Anyone looking at gold at the moment? Correlation I mean...
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