USD/JPY Discussion

Be careful My friend,Its going to form downtrend signal,as long The Japan wont going to put another intervene then this pairs is ready to going down again and again...No Bull sign yet so keep your SL tight

There is a copy on the supported site's main page, for anyone else that wants a 168 page book that needs to be read 10X we are reliably informed!: http://www.tradeguider.com/mtm_251058.pdf

Edit: In response to following post please be aware this is an 18Mb file so it will be "coming up blank" if you don't wait long enough. The smart way to download .pdf's like this is to right click the above link and select "Save As", then you get to see the download happening!

Do I need to buy the software from trade guider to use this method (VSA) or can the standerd MT4 (cntrl L) volume display can be used for this.

The link keeps coming up blank.

Here is another one:

http://www.vsa.to/

Perhaps more useful because there is no meaningful volume data available for the Forex markets.

LOL, I have a violin in the cupboard to "learn again" one day when peacefulness and quiet descends on the hub-bub of modern living, might never happen! You will note the edit to the above post, just right click save as to get the document.

The answer to iferdous q is that you definitely don't need to buy the software to use the method. Whether buying the software would improve use of the method sufficiently to warrant it is a different question! You will note it is not cheap, does that mean it is good? Or at least good enough to pay its cost back several times over? Dunno, but would want to before buying! However, either way, the software or method would obviously be relatively ineffective if one doesn't have a reasonably good understanding of the topic first. Read this post by Beljevina again http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23567 a few times, there is good info there and it is fairly concise! It is bloody obvious one doesn't pick up VSA in the time it takes to fart against the wind, nor is the effort required the same. However there certainly appears to be a lot of merit in at least partially understanding the concepts and using them as a check on entry validation whether one becomes a full blown VSA convert (whatever exactly that is) or not.

In reading some of the VSA stuff, and I have a lot to go, I find myself wondering about some of these deliberate opposite candle end pushes one sees that is talked about. Regardless of what VSA suggests implying this is about the smart money's desire / insight what I have been suspecting for some time is that a form of insider trading / collaboration exists that causes the opposite push before a spring back. An eg is how often big news goes the opposite way just prior to the news release, a classic sucker trap. I think we just saw something out of this box in $Y in the last session....?

I have been trying to figure a strategic way to pick the difference from all the noise of "what people do" with their tricks and responses as they have been doing it for a lot longer than me in the trading arena, the VSA technique looks like a useful filter to sort the mess out. This "4 trillion $/day so it can't be manipulated" bs looks like the other side of a conspiracy theory to me, all that I am uncertain of is the balance between stupidity, conditioned responses and malevolent intent!

To sort out what is really going on in the moment I tend to watch the F9 order window to separate what is actually happening with the price and relate that to what the candles look like and what people might be expected to do given any particular pattern, which is me trying to guess two jumps ahead of the crowd, very dangerous for an amateur! Obviously a disciplined VSA approach to sort out reality from convention and going for odd time intervals with candles looks like the sensible way to sort this mess out more reliably. However I am also mindful of being "too clever by half"!

None of the above is meant to be sage advice, just me splatting down some thoughts in the hope that more experienced others will remark on the relevant merit of the actions that might flow from them. I am convinced that a higher level of understanding can be had of the FX market than "just" Fibonacci levels, pivots, Bollinger Band breakouts and the like. The KEY is going to be in what people do and finding the evidence of that. VSA looks to be a very useful component of that however immediately there is uncertainty over the reliability of the data at your disposal. Is the Ctrl L data most of us have reliable enough, or more to the point how would we know? Or is it a case of opening a demo account with a particular broker just to get the volume feed (and going live with them later if you warm to them)? The business of Volume being a hard count of orders .vs. total lots transacted seems pretty damn important, and it LOOKS to me like the Ctrl L info is the less useful one (ie a count), anyone know? (My feed is from Gain Capital via an intermediary.)

hi. how will the earthquake affect the yen in the long term? any ideas?

P.S.: my first post here. hi!

I suppose it depends on the frequency and severity of the aftershocks....

Good question, and one that is very much a crystal ball exercise. Theories and strategies abound, starting with the opinions of many a talking head and economist.

There have been some good starter links posted here leading to some good resources. Frankly, asking the question here isn't the best avenue for answers. The truthfull bottom line is none of us know: we're just trying to grab 20/50/hundreds of pips at a time, regardless of the direction.

Wonderful progress, having triggered 81.6 - no small feat given the recent lethargic PA. I see this as a sign of further bullish action. Tentatively am expecting failure just below stops presumably positions below 81.8. Word last week was if that area is breached, more buyers are waiting there and at 82. A good start to the week regardless, for catapulting into either direction, and a return to greater swings. Another test of 81 is almost a sure thing IMO, and potentially a longer accumulation period.

Or if it is really strong the Yen will be dead because Japan will no longer be.

I'm leaning towards taking a short of this pair with a stop over 82.

Yeah, I'm in short @ 81.64.

According to a quick fundamental analysis: radioactivity, nuclear plant problems, refugees, water pollution, BOJ interventions, etc., and long-term technical analysis for example fibonacci monthly and weekly, USDJPY is clearly rising at most in two months will be in 90 or 100.
Open long at 81,600

No regret
No surrender

I guess we're about to find out whether USDX has got anything positive to say for itself.......the outcome will have an effect on UJ for sure......

Streuth if I had a $ for every time that has been said in the last 6 months I would be a very rich man!

I wouldn't be surprised it will be revisiting 74 area

D1:


Not very lucky lately, missing moves by a hair, otherwise I would be very tempted to short UJ right now.......

Yes exactly Vince......the best we can do is to react to what we see.....predicting the future is for the circus sideshows!!!

You could be right Bear....time to wait and see.

this guy wants to push for buck up http://www.forexcrunch.com/qe3-chances-of-very-slim/

and then along comes his buck down mate: http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-s-policy.html

which could be a case of the second guy saying to the first one to shut the f up until we really can't keep the lid on this ridiculous monetary policy, ...or is it?

well I certainly don't know but there sure are some strong views out there, why should we (per above) be any different here? The thing in this game is a buck each way doesn't help you, maybe that is why it got banned stateside so people have to make a freakin' decision? Seems odd given the financial terriers aren't that flash at doing exactly that themselves. Probably I am wondering off topic.....

I have no idea what this pair is doing. I have been seeing "buy" signals all day long on my chart but the price is locked in a 6-pip range.

Ridiculous!

1:30 JPY Household Spending y/y http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...dar_detail.gif -0.2% 0.1% -1.0%

1:30 JPY Unemployment Rate http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...dar_detail.gif 4.6% 4.9% 4.9%

Good night to all