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  • #414,481
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:00pm Mar 28, 2011 2:00pm
Quoting forexcompoun
Last week Friday I gave this trade call. I got posts from concerned and good hearted traders trying to dissuade me from taking the trade yet I knew exactly what I was doing and left the pending BUY order at 1.4047 my order got triggered and I saw a maximum draw down of 27pips. Categorically, I stated that this 27pip draw down never would have occurred if I had drawn my channel on 4hr tf. See chart attached.

Now the trade is still about 40pips green, price came 16pips shy of my TP. I'll wait patiently and have my TP hit.

I'll mention this yet...
Poor analysis ... bad timing ... only a few moments prior to markets closing time ...

Has not much to do with pure FOREX ...
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #414,482
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:01pm Mar 28, 2011 2:01pm
Quoting rattyo
I saw them at the Brixton Academy 1995 around that year
really? I thought you were a lot younger than that...
  • #414,483
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:06pm Mar 28, 2011 2:06pm
Quoting forexcompoun
Time and again I have heard people make this assertion about volume. I really don't wanna have to argue with them. VSA makes alot of sense to me but since there really is no centralized exchange for FOREX, different brokers would give you different volume readings.

I came up with a beautiful way of still using volume a little bit "indirectly".
Let me explain how I do this. We can't see the wind, we can't tell where it goes or where it is coming from yet we can see its EFFECTS.

Same way, we can use the SPREAD of the candle to indirectly...
Can you post a few examples please? I usually look at the spread too.

ie: wide bar finishing on high or low is buying/selling while high volume squat is buying and high volume doji is selling usually. I think with some PA analysis example EU goes down 150 pips during London/NY but high volume stopped it and made it go up.. there was a test down and then it came back up BUT during Asia it made a new low... this to me signifies that the retrace is weak and any up movement should be sold into for profit. Unless yesterdays high is broken (your hard SL).

It becomes intuition after a while. I know there is no central exchange but money is money.. when you throw $30 billion at a trade it's going to cause volume on all exchanges through arbitrage. It's what creates market efficiency.

It's the reason we all have similar charts across multiple brokers and clearing exchanges.

Using volume in the conventional sense is different with stocks where you see a large order and you jump right in. In Forex there could be a hidden ice berg somewhere... its harder to track but if you combine time of day and background with some general PA common sense then the volatility of currencies is pretty good for making income. I just wonder about the credibility of brokers that make your market and if they would allow you to make a good amount of money without manipulating your trades.


Jag
  • #414,484
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:07pm Mar 28, 2011 2:07pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
really? I thought you were a lot younger than that...
Now thats a low blow!
Never say never.
  • #414,485
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:10pm Mar 28, 2011 2:10pm
Quoting razldazl
Now thats a low blow!
didn't mean it in a bad way...
  • #414,486
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:12pm Mar 28, 2011 2:12pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
didn't mean it in a bad way...
I'm not bothered
rat
  • #414,487
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:13pm Mar 28, 2011 2:13pm
Long all the way

gbpusd eurusd eurjpy
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  • #414,488
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:14pm Mar 28, 2011 2:14pm
Quoting forexcompoun
Time and again I have heard people make this assertion about volume. I really don't wanna have to argue with them. VSA makes alot of sense to me but since there really is no centralized exchange for FOREX, different brokers would give you different volume readings.

I came up with a beautiful way of still using volume a little bit "indirectly".
Let me explain how I do this. We can't see the wind, we can't tell where it goes or where it is coming from yet we can see its EFFECTS.

Same way, we can use the SPREAD of the candle...
No volume in forex. Its not centralized market. Momentum is everything.

Steve Nison:

Candlesticks: Re ignited
Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques
The Candlestick Course
Candle Charting Essentials & Beyond
Steve Nison’s 360° Candle Analysis

John Bollinger: Bollinger on Bollinger bands

William Blau: Momentum, direction and divergence
  • #414,489
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:18pm Mar 28, 2011 2:18pm
Quoting forexcompoun
Time and again I have heard people make this assertion about volume. I really don't wanna have to argue with them. VSA makes alot of sense to me but since there really is no centralized exchange for FOREX, different brokers would give you different volume readings.

I came up with a beautiful way of still using volume a little bit "indirectly".
Let me explain how I do this. We can't see the wind, we can't tell where it goes or where it is coming from yet we can see its EFFECTS.

Same way, we can use the SPREAD of the candle to indirectly...
  • #414,490
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:25pm Mar 28, 2011 2:25pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
didn't mean it in a bad way...
Yeah Im sure
Never say never.
  • #414,491
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:26pm Mar 28, 2011 2:26pm
Quoting T@rantula
No volume in forex. Its not centralized market. Momentum is everything.

Steve Nison:

Candlesticks: Re ignited
Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques
The Candlestick Course
Candle Charting Essentials & Beyond
Steve Nison’s 360° Candle Analysis

John Bollinger: Bollinger on Bollinger bands

William Blau: Momentum, direction and divergence
Thanks alot bro. Now I have a few more books to read within the next few weeks.
I appreciate.
Meshach
  • #414,492
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:29pm Mar 28, 2011 2:29pm
Quoting forexcompoun
Thanks alot bro. Now I have a few more books to read within the next few weeks.
I appreciate.
Meshach
  • #414,493
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:31pm Mar 28, 2011 2:31pm
Interesting little take on identifying supply/demand around this time of day from forexlive...

Our friend Jesse Livermore has long contended that algos are programed to keep pushing a market in one direction until it finds human intervention to push back in the other direction. Based on that thesis, it looks as though there might be some real, live human buying interest in the 1.4080/85 area. EUR/USD as bounced back to that level pretty quickly.
  • #414,494
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:35pm Mar 28, 2011 2:35pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
Interesting little take on identifying supply/demand around this time of day from forexlive...

Our friend Jesse Livermore has long contended that algos are programed to keep pushing a market in one direction until it finds human intervention to push back in the other direction. Based on that thesis, it looks as though there might be some real, live human buying interest in the 1.4080/85 area. EUR/USD as bounced back to that level pretty quickly.
Don't know about human or not but 1.408x is last breakout point intraday but more importantly is last daily S that was broken on Friday and is getting break back on the close ...meaning screaming LONGS.... good luck Fibbin as with this last piece of info I am done making the decision for today.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #414,495
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:36pm Mar 28, 2011 2:36pm
Quoting sisse
Don't know about human or not but 1.408x is last breakout point intraday but more importantly is last daily S that was broken on Friday and is getting break back on the close ...meaning screaming LONGS.... good luck Fibbin as with these last of info I am done making the decision for today.

sisse
I personally have about 4 robots that I've helped create (strategy and programming management, not the pure coding mind you). They all operate profitably on breakouts.....so I totally get the logic behind that. It's almost sad though

And YES they are operating right now, and running from the breakouts in eur/usd, aussie and maybe 1 or two others. and marginally profitable at this exact moment. The projected aussie robot TP is 1.042 by the way with a stop loss at 1.019.....hmm. As a retail trader, I feel like I 'd want to fade here at some point, but my guess is, based on stat arb and the robot being right.....that we WILl hit the TP first haha.
  • #414,496
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:40pm Mar 28, 2011 2:40pm
Quoting sisse
Don't know about human or not but 1.408x is last breakout point intraday but more importantly is last daily S that was broken on Friday and is getting break back on the close ...meaning screaming LONGS.... good luck Fibbin as with this last piece of info I am done making the decision for today.

sisse
flat now but was long from NY open, had eyes on 413x as a tp, but relatively narrow range day, I notice it stalled at your h4 support zone from friday's decline, which incidentally at the time it looked would hold until plosser's comments trumped the technicals.
  • #414,497
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:54pm Mar 28, 2011 2:54pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
flat now but was long from NY open, had eyes on 413x as a tp, but relatively narrow range day, I notice it stalled at your h4 support zone from friday's decline, which incidentally at the time it looked would hold until plosser's comments trumped the technicals.
Still have the same chart in front of me and I also took the same trade as you with the same expectations intraday. I closed before London close today as it was clear that bulls run of of steam in a small range after the big "effort" of making a bottom intraday and shifting H4 to HH.

Daily chart in play here ...let see what tomorrow brings apart from 1.413x, my exhaustion longs levels with NFP is max 1.430x with intermediate stops on 1.417x and 1.422x both daily Resistances but the first one weaker as inside bars.... obviously will need to refresh/review those areas before NFP .... we'll see

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #414,498
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:58pm Mar 28, 2011 2:58pm
Quoting sisse
Still have the same chart in front of me and I also took the same trade as you with the same expectations intraday. I closed before London close today as it was clear that bulls run of of steam in a small range after the big "effort" of making a bottom intraday and shifting H4 to HH.

Daily chart in play here ...let see what tomorrow brings apart from 1.413x, my exhaustion longs levels with NFP is max 1.430x with intermediate stops on 1.417x...
my trailing stop got hit around 95 for + 60 or so, not a bad day...

possible we may get our fake and shake reverse on nfps release with a new yearly high for the big sell off...

could be wrong of course, let's see...
  • #414,499
  • Mar 28, 2011 3:01pm Mar 28, 2011 3:01pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
my trailing stop got hit around 95 for + 60 or so, not a bad day...

possible we may get our fake and shake reverse on nfps release with a new yearly high for the big sell off...

could be wrong of course, let's see...
I have the same NFP scenario in mind. Also coincides with monthly close and a couple of days before the ECB conference so IMHO, that scenario is a must to have in mind.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #414,500
  • Mar 28, 2011 3:04pm Mar 28, 2011 3:04pm
Quoting sisse
I have the same NFP scenario in mind. Also coincides with monthly close and a couple of days before the ECB conference so IMHO, that scenario is a must to have in mind.

sisse
yes definitely time to be paying a little attention to fundies...
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