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  • #413,841
  • Mar 26, 2011 9:24am Mar 26, 2011 9:24am
In addition to the EU debt issues and QE2 ending....its about that time that smart money starts positioning for a possible change in the White House....(republican austerity 2012)
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #413,842
  • Mar 26, 2011 9:30am Mar 26, 2011 9:30am
Quoting razldazl
..., I know the US is not in great shape but believe me Europe (and especially Spain, Portugal, various others) is not a happening place at the moment, so personally I dont understand the rise in the euro of late, its not in our interest to have a high euro (imports rise local sales drop etc etc, exports are too expensive) but this could all be a dollar move. Best keep an open mind and be willing to change sides...take care, Raz
Good post.

So often I see others not understanding why the euro is strengthing or declining ....... or why the dollar is strengthing or declining ......... but not considering what both together are doing economically, politically and fiscally at that moment in time.

They are called pairs for a reason.
  • #413,843
  • Mar 26, 2011 10:25am Mar 26, 2011 10:25am
Quoting SunTrader
Good post.

So often I see others not understanding why the euro is strengthing or declining ....... or why the dollar is strengthing or declining ......... but not considering what both together are doing economically, politically and fiscally at that moment in time.

They are called pairs for a reason.
Here's a thought for ya...

Given the fact that most simply cannot comprehend the quantitative size of the deficits nor the impact that any political action would have on this, it is simply impossible to compare the two...

How does a raindrop effect the ocean vs the sea?

Moot...

When price goes up...be a buyer.
When price goes down...be a seller.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #413,844
  • Mar 26, 2011 10:32am Mar 26, 2011 10:32am
Quoting attila
one more thing about times of day. now don't hold me accountable i'm not saying the market reverses at these times but if it does that's when it happens.

all eastern times

9am, 10:30am, 11:30 am (if it reverses/retraces here, at noon it will continue the same direction as it was before 11:30), noon, 1:30 pm(as of late this is becoming more important than noon), and 3pm.

there are also mini reversals every 45 minutes(visible on lower TFs).

why? no idea. maybe it has to do with the banks orders workflows. it's not an exact science but it happens...
Nice. It's not something I actively looked at but will check it out. I like little nuggets like this. Makes it worthwhile trekking through threads.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #413,845
  • Mar 26, 2011 10:35am Mar 26, 2011 10:35am
Quoting Magix
I think what is significant is where the bulls have run out of steam...

Yeah, we have seen some nice buys and fairly decent ranges over the last few months, but really it has taken 4 months to buy up the November exodus...4 months of sell offs being bought up, all to get to a fist full of pips from November highs and nobody wants to buy?

Now, fair to be said that the monthly candle has not closed, and until it does, we really can't be 100% sure of anything...but right now, we are still playing inside candles off the last bearish engulfing...


Well said my friend, well said......
  • #413,846
  • Mar 26, 2011 10:37am Mar 26, 2011 10:37am
Quoting rattyo
no I was looking at my account balance calculating this weeks profit 2595 Ł
Very nice. Not to be sniffed at, that's for sure.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #413,847
  • Mar 26, 2011 10:38am Mar 26, 2011 10:38am
Quoting Magix
Here's a thought for ya...

Given the fact that most simply cannot comprehend the quantitative size of the deficits nor the impact that any political action would have on this, it is simply impossible to compare the two...

How does a raindrop effect the ocean vs the sea?

Moot...

When price goes up...be a buyer.
When price goes down...be a seller.
shutupya
rat
  • #413,848
  • Mar 26, 2011 10:41am Mar 26, 2011 10:41am
Quoting Magix

When price goes up...be a buyer.
When price goes down...be a seller.
If only it were always that simple Magix
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #413,849
  • Mar 26, 2011 10:47am Mar 26, 2011 10:47am
Quoting Patience
If only it were always that simple Magix
Actually P...you are right, it ain't always that simple...

But where do you think most have a better chance at success...viewing deficit and fiscal numbers in relation to new political bullshit...or in trying to read a chart?

Cuz really, that was my point...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #413,850
  • Mar 26, 2011 10:51am Mar 26, 2011 10:51am
Quoting Magix
Actually P...you are right, it ain't always that simple...

But where do you think most have a better chance at success...viewing deficit and fiscal numbers in relation to new political bullshit...or in trying to read a chart?

Cuz really, that was my point...
flipping coin might be another alternative.... very simple.
  • #413,851
  • Mar 26, 2011 10:52am Mar 26, 2011 10:52am
Quoting Magix
Actually P...you are right, it ain't always that simple...

But where do you think most have a better chance at success...viewing deficit and fiscal numbers in relation to new political bullshit...or in trying to read a chart?

Cuz really, that was my point...
I know.

I can barely comprehend my own bills let alone government fiscal deficits. I know what I do when I overspend though. I stop spending. Very simple. Just like tossing a coin ... ROFL. And no, I don't toss a coin otherwise I wouldn't be sitting here typing this post.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #413,852
  • Mar 26, 2011 11:07am Mar 26, 2011 11:07am
Quoting Patience
I know.

I can barely comprehend my own bills let alone government fiscal deficits. I know what I do when I overspend though. I stop spending. Very simple. Just like tossing a coin ... ROFL. And no, I don't toss a coin otherwise I wouldn't be sitting here typing this post.
I hear ya brother, but really...can the governing parties of this world really do the same?

Encouraging and stimulating growth does take money...thus the saying takes money to make money, only where printing money instead of making has been the way for so long, where does that really leave us?

When the goverments have adopted the policy of, "I still have checks, how can I be out of money?" , and padding their own personal back hipster in favor of doing what "Needs to be done", continues to be the trend, in our lifetime, what chance do we see at a correction?

I am not saying that there aren't some great people trying to do some grand things, but it still boils down to the drop in the ocean. Decades of mismanagement cannot be corrected overnight. With an ever increasing population, infrastructures that need to be, not only maintained but improved, I really do not envy nor aspire to be one of the want to be do gooders of the world.

"The little engine that could", can't.

Buy lottery tickets.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #413,853
  • Mar 26, 2011 11:17am Mar 26, 2011 11:17am
Yeah so all the TA traders like myself who could care less about FA haven't commented on the outlook for the US or EZ at one time or another?

I was just saying if someone is going to talk about one side of the pair remember the other side.

As they say in the old neighborhood: fugetaboutit

And oh btw like the new addition to iggy feature .... a lot.
  • #413,854
  • Mar 26, 2011 11:17am Mar 26, 2011 11:17am
Quoting attila

"There are several main concepts that traders have to pay attention to.
Yes, I agree, wholeheartedly but it's the "heat of the moment" trades that tend to do one in. This can be a hard thing to overcome in the early trading days. I see posters all the time getting carried away with the market when it's moving, not even bothering to check ATR or the time of day and then they wonder why they get stuck at the bottom (or top).

Even now, I still get sucked into them, just not as often.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #413,855
  • Mar 26, 2011 11:21am Mar 26, 2011 11:21am
Quoting Magix

Buy lottery tickets.

But I don't win at lottery. It's a waste of money
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #413,856
  • Mar 26, 2011 11:22am Mar 26, 2011 11:22am
Quoting SunTrader
Yeah so all the TA traders like myself who could care less about FA haven't commented on the outlook for the US or EZ at one time or another?

I was just saying if someone is going to talk about one side of the pair remember the other side.

As they say in the old neighborhood: fugetaboutit

And oh btw like the new addition to iggy feature .... a lot.
Moron.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #413,857
  • Mar 26, 2011 11:23am Mar 26, 2011 11:23am
  •  Rgkc
  • | Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Never stop learning about forex! | 419 Posts
Quoting razldazl
...if this is a ¨top¨ we need a hard and convincing rejection and that we havent seen yet. Can only wait and see, I live in Spain and I can tell you the situation here is not good at all, I know the US is not in great shape but believe me Europe (and especially Spain, Portugal, various others) is not a happening place at the moment, so personally I dont understand the rise in the euro of late, its not in our interest to have a high euro (imports rise local sales drop etc etc, exports are too expensive) but this could all be a dollar move. Best keep...


Hello my friends ..
I totally agree with you .. I'm Portuguese and I say that the situation here is getting out of control .. Besides the political and financial crisis, possible entry FMI, rising unemployment, inflation, etc. etc. ....
I have several friends graduate. They belonged to the middle class. Now, she just don't have more money to pay home, water and electricity.
The petrol and essential goods to go up forever. Gasoline -1,60€ lt
The standard salary in Portugal is 500 € month
The rent of a house is around € 600 month.
The normal price to have electricity, water and cable TV around 200 € month.
Marlboro - 4,10€
toll highways unbelievable
low average restaurant dinner € 40
drink a cup (ONE CUp) 30 €
absurd expensive school supplies
Unemployment 12%
Pensions down.
Constantly rising taxes (VAT 23%, 25/27% soon)
Family allowances cut.
Etc, etc, etc..
How do we survive?
Here corruption reigns in the political world.
We can not afford anything.
We are the scum of Europe.
This government fell.
But the next will be the same or worse.
Unfortunately ...

So I dedicate myself exclusively in forex ...
To escape the crisis will
Have a good weekend.....
Studing..............
  • #413,858
  • Mar 26, 2011 11:25am Mar 26, 2011 11:25am
Quoting Patience
Yes, I agree, wholeheartedly but it's the "heat of the moment" trades that tend to do one in. This can be a hard thing to overcome in the early trading days. I see posters all the time getting carried away with the market when it's moving, not even bothering to check ATR or the time of day and then they wonder why they get stuck at the bottom (or top).

Even now, I still get sucked into them, just not as often.
oh, i get suckered many times too but i can figure out pretty quickly that "i was made".

one problem with some newer traders is they enter trades on h1 let's say long, but they fail to realize m15 just hit a top and it's now retracing taking out their stop loss for an otherwise good trade. the reverse is also true. you take a short trade on m15 but you are trading a retrace on a higher tf and your tp will never be reached. you hear all the time, my trade was positive, i should have closed it because now it's in red.

it is a very hard game to master, and time (a lot a lot of it) is required.
  • #413,859
  • Mar 26, 2011 11:32am Mar 26, 2011 11:32am
Quoting attila
How i see the market.... This is a post of mine on a different trading site. I thought I should copy and paste some of it here.


"There are several main concepts that traders have to pay attention to.

1. At the base of everything is the interaction between time frames. Different time frames are being played at different times, and you should try to identify which one is it. In general you go down the time frames until you see a trend either direction. What exactly is a trend? HH, HL or LH and LL. A simple retrace off some s/r on the higher...
I have a slightly different take on this. Keeping an eye on both small and bigger timeframe, and relevance of a critical move to both is important. Let me explain.

A major trend can be split into several stages, that would be, a) Start, b)Immediate reaction just after it starts, c) Getting momentum, d) Retrace, e) Resumption after retrace, f) one or more repeatetion of stages c) d) and e), g) Trend Exhaustion, h) Reaction / Response at trend exhaustion, and finally start of a new trend in the opposite direction repeating all stages from a) to g).

It is stage c) that provides reasonable confirmation about start of a new trend. Smaller timeframes do provide some indiication of stage a) when a new trend starts. Many look for such indication in pa movement at a key long-term level. But the cofirmation comes after stage b) and normally with a big move that gives momentum to the new trend. This momentum is big enough to overcome dying trend on smaller timeframe. However, reaction of the dying trend confuses the tape readers in clearly identifying stage c) of the new trend.

The best option therefore maybe to wait until stage c) is confirmed which confirmation may only be visible on a bigger timeframe.

Traders sometimes get deceived if confirmation of stage c) is obtained just prior to a retrace of this new trend.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #413,860
  • Edited 11:51am Mar 26, 2011 11:38am | Edited 11:51am
Quoting Magix
Here's a thought for ya...

Given the fact that most simply cannot comprehend the quantitative size of the deficits nor the impact that any political action would have on this, it is simply impossible to compare the two...

How does a raindrop effect the ocean vs the sea?

Moot...

When price goes up...be a buyer.
When price goes down...be a seller.
broad market perception, true value vs. perceived......

is an instrument over or under valued and how quickly does it correct...

we witnessed yesterday how a cb fart can effect perceptions...
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