DislikedI never stop looking for patterns... It's what got me on the USD/CHF and EUR/JPY discoveries. USD/CHF has had 5 straight winners since I posted about it. I get bored when a month ends early for me, and that's when I start looking for stuff like this.
If you're still looking for an answer, it's no... I am still looking at 08:00GMT compared to 00:00GMT. Daylight time in London doesn't change until this weekend, so yes, for the past 3 weeks since we rolled our clocks forward, the trading time has been 4am locally (as opposed to 3am), but that's still...Ignored
The point to bear in mind that Japan does not have day light savings. The Tokyo's trading sessions are from 09:00am (+9 hrs GMT) to 11:00am and from 12:30pm to 3:00pm. Therefore:
During normal times
0:00 GMT (London local time) means 9:00 a.m in Tokyo (market open time)
Our rules mean we compare Tokyo open to London open (8:00 GMT)
During day light saving times
0:00 GMT+1 (London local time) means 8.00 a.m in Tokyo.
If we just keep to the rule, we are not going to compare like with like and miss the effect of Tokyo opening. Maybe we should consider using the 1:00 (London local time) candle to trade. What others think?
As for today, nice result even though I left some money on the table using my modified rules. I hope we get many more trades like this
.
Ticket : 9842321
Market Name : X GBP/USD Rolling Daily
Stake :4
Action : Buy
Price : 1.60762
Market Expiry : 5/11/2014 21:00:00
Trade Executed : 25/3/2011 09:06:12
The above trade has closed/part closed the following positions:
This position was closed :
Trade No : 9841447
Market Name : X GBP/USD Rolling Daily
Created : 25/3/2011 08:05:13
Amount : 4
Action : Sell
Price : 1.61151
P/L : 155.60 (GBP)
Total Profit/Loss : 155.60 (GBP
Happy trading,
Joel
During normal times
0:00 GMT (London local time) means 9:00 a.m in Tokyo (market open time)
Our rules mean we compare Tokyo open to London open (8:00 GMT)
During day light saving times
0:00 GMT+1 (London local time) means 8.00 a.m in Tokyo.
If we just keep to the rule, we are not going to compare like with like and miss the effect of Tokyo opening. Maybe we should consider using the 1:00 (London local time) candle to trade. What others think?
As for today, nice result even though I left some money on the table using my modified rules. I hope we get many more trades like this
.Ticket : 9842321
Market Name : X GBP/USD Rolling Daily
Stake :4
Action : Buy
Price : 1.60762
Market Expiry : 5/11/2014 21:00:00
Trade Executed : 25/3/2011 09:06:12
The above trade has closed/part closed the following positions:
This position was closed :
Trade No : 9841447
Market Name : X GBP/USD Rolling Daily
Created : 25/3/2011 08:05:13
Amount : 4
Action : Sell
Price : 1.61151
P/L : 155.60 (GBP)
Total Profit/Loss : 155.60 (GBP
Happy trading,
Joel
Tough month indeed. -14.12% down for me, ignoring the 9 pip rule.
Yesterday's trade (30th) was interesting because since the change last weekend to BST in the UK, I have been comparing the 8am (UK) candle to the midnight (UK) candle. If the comparison candle had stayed at midnight GMT (ie 11pm UK), yesterday would have been a win instead of a loss.
Have others using this system adjusted their trading hours? I can see the sense in changing the 8am candle to coincide with the London open, but I'm not about changing the comparison midnight candle?
I would love to add the UC and UJ systems to this next month, but unless there is an EA to place the trades automatically, I won't be able to
Anyone know of an EA which I can use to straddle the relevant candles?
Cheers
Yesterday's trade (30th) was interesting because since the change last weekend to BST in the UK, I have been comparing the 8am (UK) candle to the midnight (UK) candle. If the comparison candle had stayed at midnight GMT (ie 11pm UK), yesterday would have been a win instead of a loss.
Have others using this system adjusted their trading hours? I can see the sense in changing the 8am candle to coincide with the London open, but I'm not about changing the comparison midnight candle?
I would love to add the UC and UJ systems to this next month, but unless there is an EA to place the trades automatically, I won't be able to
Anyone know of an EA which I can use to straddle the relevant candles?
Cheers
Thanks cgrey and erwal. As I said before I have been trading this strategy live since late February on a manual basis. I was initially interested in this strategy due to the time of trade. I live in UK and this allows me to place the trade before I go to work (regrettably I am still part of the corporate world and trading is a part time activity for additional income). Like everyone else, I was following the rules as set out by Cgrey to begin with. For trading/research/analysis I was using 1 hr, 15 mins and 5 mins candles. When the results didn’t go my way as planned, I started studying the charts more intensely. I also started collecting further data on the currency pair and started testing each variable. Following these experimentations, I have come up with the following general/additional rules:
1. Risk per trade is 1.5% of the available capital (reason: reduce the risk)
2. Target return for the month is 7% instead of 10% (reason: reduction in risk per trade by 40%)
3. Pip rule (1): The minimum difference between the 0:00 GMT and 8:00 GMT candles’ open prices should be 7 (reason: reduce the number of missed trades due to this rule)
4. Pip rule (2): The maximum difference between the candles should be 30 (reason: when the differences were larger normal market behaviour seems to change and the break-out seems to be smaller or non-existent). There seem to be a strong case for not to change the direction of the trade if the pip difference is greater than 30, i-e adapt a trend following strategy but I am still testing that.
5. Entry time is 8:05 GMT (or GMT+1 during daylight saving times) but decision is still based on the 0:00 & 8:00 GMT openings. The reason is that the volatility seems to be very high at the London market opening and we were hitting the SL or getting closer to the SL regularly. There were a number of trades that closed at 8.11 GMT. The solution is either to increase the SL or enter the trade a little later. I decided on a hybrid solution and opted for entry at 8:05 GMT and SL of 28 (excluding spread).
6. Stop Loss of 28 instead of 20. (reason: there were some trades in February where we were 1 or 2 pip short with the SL of 20 before the trade went in the direction we chose and also to reduce the whipsaw effect).
As you can see from the attached spreadsheets, using the rules above would give us a return of:
1. 8.80% using all the rules
2. 6.42% using all rules except (4) above i-e the maximum 30 pip rule
Overall, I have managed to reduce the risks and increase the returns. Both options suggest that it is better stop trading after achieving the target. Needless to say, it is only one month’s trading results and all could change next month. However, I hope the above has given something for people to think about and come up with even better solutions.
Let us discuss it for a prosperous tomorrow.
Kind regards,
Joel
1. Risk per trade is 1.5% of the available capital (reason: reduce the risk)
2. Target return for the month is 7% instead of 10% (reason: reduction in risk per trade by 40%)
3. Pip rule (1): The minimum difference between the 0:00 GMT and 8:00 GMT candles’ open prices should be 7 (reason: reduce the number of missed trades due to this rule)
4. Pip rule (2): The maximum difference between the candles should be 30 (reason: when the differences were larger normal market behaviour seems to change and the break-out seems to be smaller or non-existent). There seem to be a strong case for not to change the direction of the trade if the pip difference is greater than 30, i-e adapt a trend following strategy but I am still testing that.
5. Entry time is 8:05 GMT (or GMT+1 during daylight saving times) but decision is still based on the 0:00 & 8:00 GMT openings. The reason is that the volatility seems to be very high at the London market opening and we were hitting the SL or getting closer to the SL regularly. There were a number of trades that closed at 8.11 GMT. The solution is either to increase the SL or enter the trade a little later. I decided on a hybrid solution and opted for entry at 8:05 GMT and SL of 28 (excluding spread).
6. Stop Loss of 28 instead of 20. (reason: there were some trades in February where we were 1 or 2 pip short with the SL of 20 before the trade went in the direction we chose and also to reduce the whipsaw effect).
As you can see from the attached spreadsheets, using the rules above would give us a return of:
1. 8.80% using all the rules
2. 6.42% using all rules except (4) above i-e the maximum 30 pip rule
Overall, I have managed to reduce the risks and increase the returns. Both options suggest that it is better stop trading after achieving the target. Needless to say, it is only one month’s trading results and all could change next month. However, I hope the above has given something for people to think about and come up with even better solutions.
Let us discuss it for a prosperous tomorrow
.Kind regards,
Joel
