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ACD Method on GBP/JPY One trade a day

  • Post #1
  • Quote
  • First Post: Edited Sep 10, 2009 11:10am Dec 11, 2007 5:02pm | Edited Sep 10, 2009 11:10am
This is my first thread on forex factory.
I've been trading for about two years, have tried many systems,
on many different time frames and think I have eventually come up with what works for me.

I really like this method.

The ACD Method by Mark B Fisher.

I learned it from his book, "The Logical Trader" "Putting a method to the madness"

I have been experimenting and using it for about 3 months.
I have had huge success with it using it to help me scalp
but I am starting to find the scalping too stressfull and that is not
too good for your health and as the saying goes.. "Your health is your wealth".

ACD Method
It is used by most traders on the NYMEX commodities exchange.
The reason for this is because Mark B Fisher owns the biggest clearing house on the NYMEX and he has also taught this method to most of the traders on the NYMEX including all of Paul Tudor Jones's Traders. He has taught thousands of professional traders his method and believes the more who use it the better it works.

Each trader he has taught uses ACD with there own system and style.

The last 2 days I have being trying it out with a totally different
set of rules and money management than my scalping method. And it is these rules and money management I want to test out and see how I get on.

The system is based on one trade only per day.
I have back tested it for the last month and it has been very sucsessfull.
I find it works really well with both
GBP/JPY and GBP/USD
Every day somewhere between 07:00 and 10:00 (GMT)I will post my trade for the day and later that night we will see how it goes.

I started using the system yesterday and I made 150 pips yesterday and lost 54 pips today.
And yes I am using a live account as demo accounts are make believe crap.

On the next post I will explain how it works very basicly.
It would be a good Idea to download the Chapter1 of the book I have uploaded if anyone is really interested in the system.

Last but not least. This is my personal journal.
These trades are a record of my personal performance and not intended for the purpose of trade calls or financial advise. please do not trade any trades I post on this thread.
Attached File
File Type: pdf chapter1ACD.pdf   163 KB | 3,407 downloads
The more I wait the more I make
First of all I must stress that there is an awful lot more to the ACD system than I am going to explain in this post. I will explain what I use from it.
There are many things about the system you can find out about on the site
http://www.thelogicaltraderonline.com/ and also in the PDF file I posted on the first post.

My system is a very simplified version of The ACD Method

The ACD method is based on the opening range of any instrument (currency in our case. or g/j in this case.

The opening range of g/j is between 2:00 to 2:30 AM (GMT)
I draw a line at the high of the opening range and a line at the low of the opening range.

I then draw a green line 32 pips above the high of the opening range
and a red line 32 pips below the low of the opening range.

Ok.
I get up a 6:45 am (GMT) every morning and by 7:00 I have drawn my 4 lines.
I then sit and wait for 1 of 2 things.
-1. a good A-up or A-down.
An A-up is when price reaches the green line and doesn't come back down below the line for longer than 15 minutes.-
An A down is the same only price touches the red line.

-2 a Failed A-up or Failed A Down.
This is when price comes in or around either the red line or the green line
but snaps back like an elastic band and goes the other way.
This particular scenario seems to happen a lot more with GBP/USD

If I get an A up I buy and put my stop below the opening range
by about 5 pips.

If I get an A down I sell and put my stop about 5 pips above the opening range.

If I Get a failed A up, I sell and put my stop just above the green A-up Line.
If I get a failed A down I buy and put my stop just below the red A down Line.
(If you get a failed A signal, these are the best because your stop is a lot tighter
so you have less risk for huge potential reward.)

If I get any of these signals between 7 and 10 o' clock then I put on the trades. I do not set a take profit. I just leave it in the hands of the Gods and then I turn off the computer and go off to work. Then I come back that night at 22:00 to close the trade if it is still open.

If I do not get any signal by 10 AM I will leave it and come back after lunch and see if anything has happened. Or maybe later in the day.
Also if A big rally starts during the night and price has gone way past any of the A lines before I get up I will not jump in unless it retraces back again. Then you should always keep your bias in the direction of the A signal that was made. For example If an A up was made and it goes 100 pips in profit then use the fib retracement tool to get a 50% or 61% retracement before you enter and go long.

The only time you could change direction is when you get a C down or C up.
C Down...This is when a good A up is made then price goes back down through the opening range through the red A down line until it goes 56 pips below the bottom of the opening range.
A C up is the opposite of this.

The C trade happens very rarely, believe me. But when it does come along the move can be enormous because this is when most of the market has got the direction wrong and they are panicking to get out
Therefore there stops and covering is driving the market rapidly away from there original bias.

Funnily enough yesterday was a beautiful C Down for a move of 300 pips down. Caused by the feds
Interest rate announcement.

I have attached a sample of my setup chart which includes yesterdays C down.

Note: I've only seen 2 C down signals and no C up signals since I started this system 3 months ago.

I think this is very significant in giving you confidence in your view and points of reference for the day.

I have uploaded a jpeg file of my chart setup
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ACD Chart.JPG Size: 182 KB Click to Enlarge Name: A Up Bias.JPG Size: 111 KB
Attached Image
The more I wait the more I make
I went Long at 9:53 this morning
Entry Price: 227.04
Stop 226.54

had to wait for a retracement as price had moved over 150 pips above
the A up line in the Asian session.

Im off to work for the day now.
Its in the hands of the gods.
I'll check it out later at 22:00 gmt.
The more I wait the more I make
Well what a start to my journal!

Logged onto my IB platform last night
at 22:00 and saw that I was up over 260 pips.

So without hessitation I took them puppys all 261 of them.

So I started this system on monday where I made 160 pips
then on tuesday I lost 54 pips and wednesday made 261 pips.

Thats 367 pips so far since monday.

what a start. Me very pleased.

I've just gone short at 228.21 at around 10:05 gmt, 20 minutes ago.
my stop is at 228.95. Its a bit more than I'd like it to be but that is just above the opening range so hopefully its safe there.
So I will leave that trade on for the day and come back and check it at 22:00 gmt tonight.

I could have gone short at about the same price at 7 this morning but I just got up. was out for a few beers last night.

And why not Im up 367 pips.

Ha Ha,

Donagh
The more I wait the more I make
I could have gone short at about the same price at 7 this morning but I just got up. was out for a few beers last night.

And why not Im up 367 pips.

Well Done http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif

Watching your thread with interest!

Will download that chapter and study system http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Thank you Chameleon.
I think the chapter is worth reading.
And my rule of one trade a day and leave it run for at least
12 hours is very good if you have a problem of over trading or
taking your profit too early. Which I did.

Anyway I got stoped out fairly quickly today.
What a messy chart today. Tricky to make money on a day like today.

Made a loss of 74 pips.
Which is a lot and leaves me only 293 pips up for the week so far.
How Tragic!

So I've had 4 trades. 2 wins 2 losses and Im still up 293 pips for the week.

I know in my heart of hearts that in my old scalping days i would have lost
tonnes of cash today.

Anyway I hope tomorrow is a better day. But at least I know that no matter what happens tomorrow I will be up for the week.
The more I wait the more I make
Quoting donagh_1
Anyway I got stoped out fairly quickly today.
What a messy chart today. Tricky to make money on a day like today.

I saw the trade real time, messy!

Made a loss of 74 pips.
Which is a lot and leaves me only 293 pips up for the week so far.
How Tragic! - lol

I know in my heart of hearts that in my old scalping days i would have lost
tonnes of cash today. - know that feeling.
.
Will c what friday brings.

Happy trading.
Cheers Chameleon,
Happy trading to you too.

I just went short there a few minutes ago at 229.13
Stop at 229.85

Its very whippy today. I don't feel very confident about todays trade
but If I get a signal I got to go with it.

Its all about consistency.
The more I wait the more I make
Hey donagh, this sounds interesting.

Just a doubt: the range you look at is between 2GMT and 6:59GMT to set the hi-low?

Thanks.
Hi Donagh - I've just come accross your thread - I too am working on a system to trade GJ in the European session - with an average session range of ~190 pips it is attractive!

I'll look at your system over the weekend and run it on some charts.

So far this morning we have "Opposition" - a good drop in cable, BUT UJ trying to rally - so GJ is somewhat confused - although the way GJ held flat around its M3 line for 3 hours till FO was a hint that it might fall. Cables drop on FO was a nice signal to sell GJ for a trip to the Daily Pivot at 228.87.

I see more dowside for cable - and euro - so IF UJ turns down too "Combine" with cable GJ will have a good sell off.....Time Will Tell.
Trading Levels with Aggressive, Volatile Volume
Quoting cesarnc
Hey donagh, this sounds interesting.

Just a doubt: the range you look at is between 2GMT and 6:59GMT to set the hi-low?

Thanks.
Hi Cesarnc,

The range is the high and low of 2:00 to 2:30 gmt.

Ususaly it dosent really break out and make an A up or Down
during the Asian session. But it does maybe once a week.

One thing I didn't mention which is important is
if you are using a different pair for example GBP/USD
the opening range is from 7:30 to 8:00 gmt
and the A up line is 28 above the high of the range and the A down is 28
below the low of the range. Instead of 32 with gbp/jpy

The amount of pips outside the opening range to the A points is different for every instrument. Depending on the ATR but I'm not too sure how its calculated but the book has lots of them listed in it.

For example oil has an opening range of 5 minutes and the A points are I think 10 or 12 pips above and below the opening range.

Anyway GBP/JPY is what Im concentrating because you get really good signals. But I just thought I'd mention that in case anyone try's it out on any other pair.
The more I wait the more I make
Quoting donagh_1
Hi Cesarnc,

The range is the high and low of 2:00 to 2:30 gmt.

Ususaly it dosent really break out and make an A up or Down
during the Asian session. But it does maybe once a week.

One thing I didn't mention which is important is
if you are using a different pair for example GBP/USD
the opening range is from 7:30 to 8:00 gmt
and the A up line is 28 above the high of the range and the A down is 28
below the low of the range. Instead of 32 with gbp/jpy

The amount of pips outside the opening range to the A points is different for every instrument. Depending on the ATR but I'm not too sure how its calculated but the book has lots of them listed in it.

For example oil has an opening range of 5 minutes and the A points are I think 10 or 12 pips above and below the opening range.

Anyway GBP/JPY is what Im concentrating because you get really good signals. But I just thought I'd mention that in case anyone try's it out on any other pair.
Thanks. I'm going to look into it. I like this kind of hi-low trades for GJ and I'm already testing two strategies.
Quoting Islander
Hi Donagh - I've just come accross your thread - I too am working on a system to trade GJ in the European session - with an average session range of ~190 pips it is attractive!

I'll look at your system over the weekend and run it on some charts.

So far this morning we have "Opposition" - a good drop in cable, BUT UJ trying to rally - so GJ is somewhat confused - although the way GJ held flat around its M3 line for 3 hours till FO was a hint that it might fall. Cables drop on FO was a nice signal to sell GJ for a trip to the Daily Pivot at 228.87.

I see more dowside for cable - and euro - so IF UJ turns down too "Combine" with cable GJ will have a good sell off.....Time Will Tell.
Hi Islander
Thanks for your input, much appreciated.
I'd be interested to see how you get on running the system over the weekend.

I agree g/j looks confused alright.

I find sometimes if I keep shouting TANK! TANK! TANK!
It listens to me...

I wish
The more I wait the more I make
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Edited at 5:10am Dec 14, 2007 5:10am | Edited at 5:10am
The problem for GJ this morning is the dollars strength - look at the swissy and euro. Once that slows down UJ will stop climbing and that should let GJ drop some more.......however, I do have a comment from an excellent esoteric trader to expect a lot of volatility today - this guy warned to expect exceptional action on Wednesday - so take care today too.
Trading Levels with Aggressive, Volatile Volume
Quoting Islander
The problem for GJ this morning is the dollars strength - look at the swissy and euro. Once that slows down UJ will stop climbing and that should let GJ drop some more.......however, I do have a comment from an excellent esoteric trader to expect a lot of volatility today - this guy warned to expect exceptional action on Wednesday - so take care today too.

Your tempting me to cash in early.
and maybe your right.
Im long from 229.13 which would be a nice 50 pips or so but I got to
stick to my rules which is to leave it till 22:00 tonight.

i could maybe take some profit and let the rest run
but I'll kick myself if just keeps selling off.
The more I wait the more I make
Quoting donagh_1
Your tempting me to cash in early.
and maybe your right.
Im long from 229.13 which would be a nice 50 pips or so but I got to
stick to my rules which is to leave it till 22:00 tonight.

i could maybe take some profit and let the rest run
but I'll kick myself if just keeps selling off.
mm - I think you mean short from 229.13 - and you should always trade your system and not listen to others. However, I personally hate to go into a loss once I'm + 20 or so and I guess it depends if you're by the screen, or going out for the day.
Trading Levels with Aggressive, Volatile Volume
Just closed out that trade from this morning at 228.51
I know its not 22:00 yet but its friday night and I got to go out.
In fact it looks like it could go down further

Anyway Im very pleased, well as long as it doesn't tank another 100 pips before 22:00.

total pips for first week at this system 355
The more I wait the more I make
Monday +160
Tuesday -54
Wednesday +261
Thursday -74
Friday+ +62

Total +355


Ok it may be beginners luck
And maybe it will all go pear shaped at some stage but I have to say its been a long time since I made this amount of pips in a week. And only from 5 trades.

I'm really happy also that I'm not making my broker a small fortune with all
the commision from my scalps I used to do. I remember one day I made so many scalps (about 20) that I made € 750 of which I had to pay €500 to my broker in commision leaving me with €250 profit and a stressed out head on me for the evening.

The most important thing I have learned from this week is that trading less and holding your trades for longer is cheaper, less stressfull and so far more profitable.

Happy trading,
Donagh
The more I wait the more I make
Lets hope my begginers luck continues this week.

I just went short at 227.88 stop at 228.50

I could have got this price at 7:50 am but price broke
through the A down so fast I missed it and I diddn't want to chase
the wild beast that is GBP/JPY. So I waited for a retrace.
I know one of these days I'm not going to get a retrace but at leaset I won't lose money.

Again today I don't have much confidence in the market as it looks very confused and skittish.

I am thinking of introducing a new money management
aspect to the system. I might start taking half the profit off the table if I get 50 pips up and move the stop to break even then let the other half run on.

I'll will see how it goes for the next few days.
The more I wait the more I make
Hi! very interesting system, thanks for sharing!
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