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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #23,641
  • Mar 24, 2011 10:40am Mar 24, 2011 10:40am
UGH what a headache, i was looking for a clean breakout to the downside today. as a result I did not want to be overexposed in a dollar short so after taking the first rally in gold this morning I didn't bother re-entering for the all time high break.

What has everyone else been playing today since it's clearly not been USDJPY?
  • #23,642
  • Mar 24, 2011 1:21pm Mar 24, 2011 1:21pm
Quoting 17121712
UGH what a headache,

Headache? I get them in a stupid way by drinking to much or caffeine, they both fuck me up

If this is giving you headache take a week off or two.

Seriously.
  • #23,643
  • Mar 24, 2011 4:34pm Mar 24, 2011 4:34pm
IMF says sees no evidence of repatriation of JPY to Japan in wake of crisis
IMF COMMENTS
Says:
- Doesn’t think repatriation of JPY to Japan should impact JPY value.
- JPY value currently reflects long-term fundamentals.

Source: Sources
  • #23,644
  • Mar 24, 2011 5:20pm Mar 24, 2011 5:20pm
I'm not losing or anything, it's simply one of those trades where when the market goes completely sideways and you can't figure out if your view has been nullified yet. I scaled out 60% of my position at a small distance from BE.
  • #23,645
  • Mar 24, 2011 5:32pm Mar 24, 2011 5:32pm
There was something I wanted to ask also.

I have attached a quick 15M snapshot from the two days following the quake.

The first spike upwards here was shortly after the earthquake hit. We then see a severe shift to the downside. Is the standard theory that the first move is panic trading and the subsequent move is the smart money taking new positions at a more favourable price?

This is mostly in response to the previous post about the IMF comments. In the past I have seen a lot of counter-intuitive moves on days of significant shocks in favour of the fundamentals. Even knowing this, finding the entry is the most difficult part.
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  • #23,646
  • Edited 6:27pm Mar 24, 2011 6:08pm | Edited 6:27pm
Quoting 17121712
There was something I wanted to ask also.

I have attached a quick 15M snapshot from the two days following the quake.

The first spike upwards here was shortly after the earthquake hit. We then see a severe shift to the downside. Is the standard theory that the first move is panic trading and the subsequent move is the smart money taking new positions at a more favourable price?

This is mostly in response to the previous post about the IMF comments. In the past I have seen a lot of counter-intuitive moves on days of significant shocks in...
I think your logic isn't far off and it's a similar theory I come up with.
Just like when we see big news coming out, price can move violently one way, triggering stops and traders getting suckered in, just for it to whip right around and carry on in the opposite direction.

I put a couple of resistance levels that may have been broken with stops to help with the push higher before the drop.
I don't know why this level was the roof. the only thing I can see is a Fibonacci Retracement Level, which I would have though would be a bit obscure by itself to limit the move.
The candlestick just before the move down is also a hanging man which is bearish and could signal a change in trend direction.

USD/JPY M15
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USD/JPY M15 Fib Retracement
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  • #23,647
  • Mar 24, 2011 6:36pm Mar 24, 2011 6:36pm
Quoting 17121712
I'm not losing or anything, it's simply one of those trades where when the market goes completely sideways and you can't figure out if your view has been nullified yet. I scaled out 60% of my position at a small distance from BE.

I think the best thing to do when the market is sideways on the time frame you are looking at is to zoom out one or two....here is my take on the Yen for the next few months.

First Chart shows monthly bounce off of the expected level for the fib drawn....confirming my belief that now it a great time to buy with a holding long term mind set. I will be looking for a few nice buying points now.

Second Chart is the weekly that I am using for targets to the UP side. I would like at LEAST the 2nd TP but will have to watch at each of the TP levels to make sure I do not get a pivot candle

Hope some of you can get in on this as well...lots of money to be made on big turn arounds with great R:R
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  • #23,648
  • Mar 24, 2011 7:03pm Mar 24, 2011 7:03pm
Yeah the termination of these moves are often quite arbitrary which is what makes finding the entry on shock days so tough. On that day I took that first leg down but merely because the previous evening I had a view to go short but only when I was offered a good enough price.

I woke up in the morning, saw the price, totally unaware of the disaster and took the short based on price action. I was lucky that the price did not snap through the next resistance level which I would have placed at 83.50.

I find your analysis interesting drumdude. We could very well see a rally but my problem is that the dollar is looking ready to show some more cracks in the near term. Gold is posting new all time highs and USD is generally under-performing against most if not all majors.

I'm acutely aware that there is a world between a 15M chart and a 1Mo chart. I find that simply because we are at either the top or bottom of the chart limits and trading counter-trend often leads to pain.
  • #23,649
  • Mar 24, 2011 8:34pm Mar 24, 2011 8:34pm
There is a gentleman in Oz, Charlie Aitken, who really knows his stuff. Very pragmatic views and insists on looking closely at fundamentals, does a lot of detailed research rather than listen to "what people say" and is often of a contrarian view. Just saying this by way of intro. From his daily report four days ago (written about time of close of Monday March 21 US session) is the following extract, it is the last para that is the most chilling:

"The 24 hour news cycle relies on dramatic, sensational and mostly bad news to generate ratings/hits/circulation. Recently there has been a plethora of that news available. However, as we wrote last week, “crises” very rarely prove as enduring as the initial press coverage they get. They way markets work is as soon as the “crisis” moves from the headlines the “crises” selling/shorting/high frequency/predatory trading also evaporates as we attempted to point out in these notes last week using numerous recent examples. Note well Australian ASX200 SPI Futures this morning are +227 points (+5%) above their intraday low of mid last week. Looks like the predators have become prey.

What also happens when “crises” monopolise the headlines is that genuine good news gets ignored. Lost amongst the Japanese and Libyan noise of the last week have been a series of very significant, positive, medium-term developments.

Firstly, the Federal Reserve recommitted to its “extended period” of ultra low interest rates. Secondly, the very same Federal Reserve has allowed major US banks to start paying dividends again in the clearest sign yet that the GFC is over (Citi last night). Thirdly, and on the same theme, Goldman Sachs is attempting to redeem $5bil of preference shares early from Warren Buffet. While yesterday, the single biggest piece of global M&A for the year was announced with AT&T offering $39bil for T-Mobile.

In the biggest economy in the world, the number of workers filing for new claims for unemployment benefits dropped more than expected. The Philly Fed reported that factories in its district had the fastest March growth in 30 years, while the Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators rose +.8% in February. I realise none of these macro or micro developments got the headlines, but all are important, particularly in equity markets discounting fear.

...

So while you won’t read about it or see it on CNN, there actually is a lot that both is and could go right. That, when combined with abundant value in equities on all valuation criteria (particularly earnings yield vs. bonds), provides the opportunity to make money and perhaps more than we all currently think possible this year. This is particularly so in Australian equities in Australian Dollars.

I think the single biggest feature of recent weeks has been how NOBODY has fled to the US Dollar as a safe haven. They fled to the Euro (142.20usc) instead. This is a very big development and confirms the next leg down for the US Dollar, engineered by the Fed and Treasury, has started. The US Dollar was SOLD in a global “crisis” and this is a huge development. The DXY has fallen for seven straight days in a “crisis”. The chart below also confirms the US Dollar Index (DXY) has broken key technical support. Clearly this has ramifications for all other currencies and commodities priced in USD’s. The next technical target for the DXY is 72, the all-time low since the index was developed."

How does this prediction resonate with those in this forum? Is it a likely scenario? Is there a mechanism to simultaneously weaken the Yen to keep the G7 promise? Or are we at the front end of what will ultimately be seen as a rebalancing of global power structures where previously unshakeable currency relationships get thrown to the wind?

Just trying to get a bit of a workout for the old grey matter here, or at least flush out a few baseless opinions! (a sport we all enjoy from time to time!)
  • #23,650
  • Mar 24, 2011 9:09pm Mar 24, 2011 9:09pm
Quoting VinceS
There is a gentleman in Oz, Charlie Aitken, who really knows his stuff. Very pragmatic views and insists on looking closely at fundamentals, does a lot of detailed research rather than listen to "what people say" and is often of a contrarian view. Just saying this by ......
Interesting article.

It brings to mind a couple of points that have been nagging at me, and it's good to see another person seeing it the same way. My concerns are:

1. When there is flight to 'safe haven' currencies........why has no one fled to USD?

2. Does the mass media who specialise in sensationalism and crisis reporting and hysteria manufacturing, really have the power to relagate good financial news in the (still) largest economy on the planet, to the 'unimportant' pages of their publications? And if so, why?

What is more important globally......Liz Taylor kicking the bucket, or more good news coming re employment, fed philly etc etc??????

IMO, the media, and the millions who subscribe to such utter trash and waste of paper, need a reality check.

Yes, it's newsworthy that Liz Taylor is gone.....yes it's newsworthy that Britains Polar Bear died....but do these 'coffee table' stories really have greater importance than life changing financial news for the majority??

Ok...I'd better shut up before I get ionto the subject of womans magazines.....but there is enough....no....more than enough good news available that would improve the lives of many thousands of people.....Liz Taylor kicking the bucket is of no importance whatsover.

People need to keep things in perspective, and the media is irresponsible in making billions of $$'s by sensasionalism.....and shame on the gullible twats who purchase this crap, for they just perpetuate this sad fact. [/rant]
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,651
  • Mar 24, 2011 9:12pm Mar 24, 2011 9:12pm
i figured out not to try any breakout since the trend is a sideway trend. my strategy is to play the sideway trend until a breakout is formed , hopefully i would have gain even more pips before breakout occurs.

Quoting 17121712
UGH what a headache, i was looking for a clean breakout to the downside today. as a result I did not want to be overexposed in a dollar short so after taking the first rally in gold this morning I didn't bother re-entering for the all time high break.

What has everyone else been playing today since it's clearly not been USDJPY?
  • #23,652
  • Mar 25, 2011 2:52am Mar 25, 2011 2:52am
Here is a good read
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,653
  • Mar 25, 2011 9:46am Mar 25, 2011 9:46am
Quoting VinceS
from what Beljevina kindly explained from VSA a couple of pages back I would think your stop is in trouble!

(ie http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23567)
USDJPY has always been tricky for VSA IMO, except for perhaps NoDemands & NoSupplies. (BTW, if you trade these alone, you're not going to get poor, lol!) Post intervention, there's been a lot of ambiguity, and the aspect of not having complete volume perhaps becomes more of an issue, but, the heavy leanings and excessive manipulation of these 2 pairs just adds to the mix.

My 9M chart of USDJPY was actually purposefully chosen - problem is that post intervention, there hasn't been any clarity of what's up in UJ, or if we were/are on a bias change towards the yen. BUT, we may well be, given the many Japanese economic issues that have cropped up, AND the impact to the rest of the world's economies. We were in a tight trading range of 80.7ish to sub 81.2 and a more strict 81 handle for days now - those 15 pips aren't really VSA readable, or many other ways interpretable IMO. I too have been longing from the 80.8/9 area, given the enrivonment, and Kampo unofficial bidding - something has definitely been keeping UJ up.

I'd chosen this 80.5-82 fib for obvious reasons (80.5 was a preached line of BoJ defense & low, now & previously and 82 was the intervention high) - PA seems to "fit" into it. And, VSA might be becoming applicable. That earlier today dip to 80.85 after the 81.355 high is a good sign, and shows buyers, producing a reasonably strong H1 bar with stopping volume, and a case of ever so slightly higher lows over the days (while still waiting for higher highs). The fact we pierced the 50% fib zone is encouraging too. Make no doubt though, sellers/supply will be in place every 15-20 pips of the scale up.

My chart is an trendline eyesore (they help, me, honest ) and based on PA up in the sub-82 area, I'm anticipating 81.4 and 81.6 tests as possible next price reaches, at some point next week. It's interesting that today (Friday) has undone the lethargic PA for the week, giving a weekly candle with more life and prospect to it, especially in an environment of a still weak USD. Once/if we get to that 23.6 percentile (81.6), we could easily see failure to the downside and further testing there, although, the buying/support "threat" of BoJ/Kampo will remain, making things interesting.
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  • #23,654
  • Mar 25, 2011 10:17am Mar 25, 2011 10:17am
Quoting Beljevina
My 9M chart of USDJPY was actually purposefully chosen - problem is that post intervention, there hasn't been any clarity of what's up in UJ, or if we were/are on a bias change towards the yen. BUT, we may well be, given the many Japanese economic issues that have cropped up, AND the impact to the rest of the world's economies. We were in a tight trading range of 80.7ish to sub 81.2 and a more strict 81 handle for days now - those 15 pips aren't really VSA readable, or many other ways interpretable IMO. I too have been longing from the 80.8/9 area,...
Brilliant post as always Beljevina!
This weekend I'm going to take the time to have a good read through the VSA thread and try and implement some of what I learn next week.
Did you just use the M9 chart purely for an example chart, or is it a time frame suited for VSA? (something I will learn).
Thanks
  • #23,655
  • Mar 25, 2011 10:35am Mar 25, 2011 10:35am
Quoting fosking
Did you just use the M9 chart purely for an example chart, or is it a time frame suited for VSA? (something I will learn).
Thanks
I kind of cheated with a M9, to get the NoD/NoS indicator to post those (UJ) turning points; it was actually more of a chart to show that UJ is a tough read, with or without VSA.

I find (VSA) value in 45min, 20min, 4min and 3min charts (and some tick charts) because of the way that smart money inflows (and algos) tend to work: on 5M & 15M chart print, have you ever noticed how in the last minute the candle moves significantly in one direction or another, printing a certain type of candle? Well, that could be a good or bad sign depending on trend, but either way, a 20M or 4M chart and associated volumes I find help tremendously because of the way it parses out how much buying & selling took place at what price point.

Just noting that you use TOS, there are some snazzy VPA (Volume Price Analysis) indicators available on a competing forum. I posted info about them here; if you get stuck, PM me. Use those 20m/4m/3m as well as 233/400 tick charts in TOS along with the VPA study and the better volume study. ES and 6B/6E can work fantastically with them too.
  • #23,656
  • Mar 25, 2011 10:48am Mar 25, 2011 10:48am
Quoting Beljevina
I kind of cheated with a M9, to get the NoD/NoS indicator to post those (UJ) turning points; it was actually more of a chart to show that UJ is a tough read, with or without VSA.....
Fantastic mate, thank you very much.
Have you heard of a book called master the markets? I have just downloaded it as it looked useful.
I will have to have a look through TOS as I use them purely for futures charts without indicators.
Thanks again!
  • #23,657
  • Mar 25, 2011 10:57am Mar 25, 2011 10:57am
Quoting fosking
Fantastic mate, thank you very much.
Have you heard of a book called master the markets? I have just downloaded it as it looked useful.
I will have to have a look through TOS as I use them purely for futures charts without indicators.
Thanks again!
Master The Markets is the bible for VSA. The running 'joke' is if you haven't read it at least 10 times (yes, ten!), you don't know VSA ... hence, I am still learning, lol!

I think I'd posted recently that the copyright owner TradeGuider/Gavin Holmes, is giving it away for free - has done it a couple of times now at TradeGuider seminars. Like I'd also mentioned, there are lots of useful VSA videos on youtube - especially to VSA beginners; a more recent TradeGuider presentation can be found streaming from their website here; (give it a minute or so to buffer.) There is a sales element to the presentations - that's the cost of running a business and covering the cost to disseminate education, tools, & salaries but as I've mentioned, there aren't any proprietary tools needed to successfully read VSA - it just takes lots of practice, and trial & error!
  • #23,658
  • Mar 25, 2011 11:02am Mar 25, 2011 11:02am
Quoting Beljevina
Master The Markets is the bible for VSA. The running 'joke' is if you haven't read it at least 10 times (yes, ten!), you don't know VSA ... hence, I am still learning, lol!
Yes I have just got a free copy.
Right then, I think it's time to pack up and get a beer!
Thanks for the info and I have a lot of learning to do over the weekend
Have a nice weekend all!
  • #23,659
  • Mar 25, 2011 11:41am Mar 25, 2011 11:41am
Longs are looking good...will be holding mine long term from post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23652
  • #23,660
  • Mar 25, 2011 12:03pm Mar 25, 2011 12:03pm
Quoting drumdude
Longs are looking good...will be holding mine long term from post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23652
Have to agree! Nice (longer/mid term) charting BTW.

Quoting fosking
Right then, I think it's time to pack up and get a beer!
Looks like Murphy's Law at work on your end, lol! The minute you packed up, action across the board in all pairs, lol!

Just teasing of course ... hopefully you had some longs in UJ ... of course, had I packed up, I'd have had a wrong position, and it would have gone against me - I get enough of that, lol!

That aside, moving up into my short-term fibs nicely. Forexlive reports 81.8-82 buyers - seems like a stretch, but do not underestimate the value of the weekly candle that is printing, and the prospect for future highs next week.

For now, 81.6 seems possible - this is the strongest and wide range H1 candle in ages! (Sorry, another mess of a chart, but same fibs as previously - blame the mess on UJ! )
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