EURUSD

I would think about taking profit at 14220 or some now at least with the sto at BE.

depends how much your current profits means to you.

I agree and have seen them figure,But reading the minutes they based the decision on future inflation risk,housing market depressed,construction expected to slow,real consumer spending slowed .
keeping busy anticipating the right side of the chart.
But for this trade my plan is set unless there is some major market moving change.Like oil soaring or portugal government collapse.or break of 4280.hit target 1.4000 .
It seems we base decisions on historical charts and the decision makers use anticipated future developments.
The thing we all do though is if were right ride it, if were wrong get out quick.
Just need to be confident were we are wrong and were we are right.

Ok I am writing some e-mails in the same time, but attention with the short

Ja schön ... und das war's dann auch schon ...

1.4220 - 1.4238 dürfte eine harte Nuss sein ...

1.4219/ 23 - 1.4238 should be a strong hurdle to take out ...



;-|

Am short at 1.4215. Anyone else short? Or is it just me lol

short at 1.4205
sl 1.4230
tp1 1.4100
1p2 1.4050

Lol, thks mate but I think you didn't get my last 2 comments.

In any case, this is the chart with my macro view for the 1st trimester I posted a few months ago and it will probably show my view on 1.42xx in a better way.

sisse

10 pips on that but it is still possible it will go further considering its h1 trade

I aimed for 9015 but scaled out 9006, still opened ( 2nd part) 9030 possible

I agree with you ....I didn't pay attention sorry

Pairs don't do something just because some level has been reached or crossed. When some level is crossed above or below - this doesn't automatically indicate that PA is going up or down.

Always, especially at important levels, you have to wait a bit and observe what PA is doing - what other traders think about this level. And only then make an educational guess about most probable future price action.

Probably some 20 000 other retail traders are on the same side as you...

...and it doesn't mean a thing.

Here is my take on the situation: Re: EUR, fundamentally, the Europeans are well into the debt crisis, and implementing austerity programs to control spending, refinancing and restructuring debt. While it is beocming apparent that PIGS may not actually survive their debt burden, all their struggles are well advanced, and the end game is becoming more apparent.

In regard to your alternative - USD, the debt crisis has yet to begin. It may be seen in its infancy, with state gov's attempting to kill labor unions and balance budgets on the backs of public sector workers. But the real dirty work is weeks and months away.

The largest holders of USD denominated debt are all to aware that the US federal govt has been running on continuing resolutions and been without a budget for over 6 months now! Politicians are unwilling and unable to compromise and make the hard choices to cut spending. And as long as Ben Bernanke is happy to crank up the printing presses, there is no political will to move toward austerity on the federal level. The States have taken baby steps and been met with fierce resistance. This is truely a no-win situation. There is no-end game envisioned for the US right now - other than monetization of debt. Bailouts are the model (from 2008) and defaults will be minimized.

And because we have the dual structure of State and Federal debts, the US problem is many times larger than Europe's issues. The bottom line is that Europe is closer to resolution that the US is...so the lesser evil is the Euro now. I do believe we will have swings back in forth; relative strength in the USD for a couple weeks here and there over the next few years, but the longer term trend is more USD weakness.

I would be very careful trying to short Euro here. I am long from 1.3880. The problem I see is that in two weeks the US CR is done and many republicans have said they will not support another. Also the debt ceiling has to raised. This uncertainty may drive the USD index down further - currently violating multi-year support around 76. With Bill Gross and PIMCo shunning US debt and other Funds dumping now too, it does not bode well for the USD. The bond vigilantes may decide to pile on and things could become very volatile...The EUR on a relative basis may actually look like a viable alternative with the future of the USD in question.

For that matter, we have already seen the USD lose it's safe haven status, so what support does it really have? I think we could be standing on a cliff. One little shove and the dollar could nose-dive. The Fed would jump in and save the day, but I am really worried about the next few weeks and months for the USD. My preference is stay long EUR and XAU.

TraderMark

(I am a swing trader - holding large long or short EUR/USD positions 5 - 60 days at a time to capture the trend. Day to day technical fluctuations don't interest me too much unless key long term support and resistance levels are violated.)

Yeh I think I know that a lot of more people are on the short side but I was just asking which of the forum guys are

I thought about that ,but the focus for the current time seems to be to help japanese yen ,seeing as the dollar is what currencies use as kinda benchmark .selling the yen ,buying the dollar would be favoured if the central banks do truly wish to help.They have publicly pledged to do so .
If they feel the yen is getting to strong.

sl at be...lets ride

Yes, I take your point, thanks.
But you have to set up somewhere, so I have laid my plan of action for today. I will manage my trades when/if they get triggered.

Here I won't be trading anywhere in the range 1.4174 - 1.22, unless I see a good set up to do so.

all fundamentals in the world dont make up to technical analysis...imho
and charts say this is probably a breather on the way higher to 1.4330 and followed by 1.4400 even tho i m short for the moment i d love to buy at 1.4050 if i get the right signals at the point

Many thanks. That was easy 17 pips for me

Just be wary when u trade of the lower TFs, they can screw technicals at some point. And generally speaking i cannot agree more.

A good technical analysis is the very first step for a successful trading. Apply a good MM and discipline and you can call yourself a trader.