GBP/USD - one trade a day | Page 31 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF and GBP/NZD thread 126 replies

ACD Method on GBP/JPY One trade a day 451 replies

The best way to trade is one trade a day 76 replies

two version of FF tunnel Chart, one say down, one say up, which one is correct? 3 replies

Attachments: GBP/USD - one trade a day
Exit Attachments

GBP/USD - one trade a day

  • #601
  • Mar 15, 2011 7:11pm Mar 15, 2011 7:11pm
Quoting GEOFFREY62
Hi Cgrey
Interesting thing on doing some eyeballing of eur/jpy for march so far, in line with your ideas, I decided just to do a check on this pair using exact same criteria we use on gbp/usd trade.
11 Trades
3 loss for total -30pips
8 wins for total +150pips
total positive pips so far in march so far 120.
Interesting dont you think?
Wish someone could invent some software stuff to backtest this on different pairs. Could be we would find some gems!
Geoff
Interesting indeed.... I may need to spend some time running back a few years. I wonder if the reverse is true and that GU would perform well under these "rules" (breakout of the 07:00 candle and close when in profit at an hourly close)....

I'm going to light up a new demo with these two pairs and these rules to see how it goes for a while. Leaving GU alone for now, but may just also put it in with these two and come up with some MM to treat all three with a single monthly profit target. May be interesting to see what happens spreading the risk across three pairs....

I should have some extra time over the next few weeks. I just closed my books for March (real trading, not the GU system)...
  • #602
  • Mar 16, 2011 7:06am Mar 16, 2011 7:06am
Quoting cgrey
I just closed my books for March (real trading, not the GU system)...
That is what is make me so excited about this thread! Brilliant business mindset - just brilliant cgery.

I will look at coding the pairs you have mentioned, I can test other pairs over long timeframes with my compounding EA if anyone wants to give me specifics.


dave.
  • #603
  • Mar 17, 2011 4:28am Mar 17, 2011 4:28am
I don't know but testing has shown this system to be much more profitable if only long trades are taken and no shorts.
  • #604
  • Edited 10:48am Mar 17, 2011 5:04am | Edited 10:48am
Quoting kalesh
I don't know but testing has shown this system to be much more profitable if only long trades are taken and no shorts.
Please share your testing data with us. How much more profitable? How far back have you tested - this week, this month, this year, more?

I'm asking because I've not found this to be the case at all over 4-years of backtesting to the beginning of 2007. So I'm curious how you came up with this.
  • #605
  • Mar 22, 2011 10:04am Mar 22, 2011 10:04am
A trending Cable is not a friend of this system

Demo account at low point for month: -10.93%
Target pips: 189 (as I now have a reduced lot size)

We need a few good wins before the month ends. Here's hoping
  • #606
  • Mar 22, 2011 6:17pm Mar 22, 2011 6:17pm
Quoting erwal
A trending Cable is not a friend of this system

Demo account at low point for month: -10.93%
Target pips: 189 (as I now have a reduced lot size)

We need a few good wins before the month ends. Here's hoping
That depends on which side of the trend you are on. Is it unrealistic to have a 5% candle in a month? Can anyone who did backtesting say what the average largest candle is in a month? -10% looks like the month won't hit +10% target, but gain is still possible. You never know.
  • #607
  • Mar 23, 2011 5:41am Mar 23, 2011 5:41am
Another 2.5% loss today - thats my limit for the month, so stopping now. Hopefully next month will be better. I need a new coin
  • #608
  • Mar 23, 2011 7:32am Mar 23, 2011 7:32am
Quoting puntalara
Another 2.5% loss today - thats my limit for the month, so stopping now. Hopefully next month will be better. I need a new coin
no trade for me due to small gap. this month is in big DD so far, lets see how we end up....
  • #609
  • Mar 23, 2011 9:07am Mar 23, 2011 9:07am
How can I set my charts with 50 EMA/ 35 SMA Lines? Can any one help me.
Attached Image
  • #610
  • Mar 23, 2011 11:41am Mar 23, 2011 11:41am
Quoting Shahbaz
How can I set my charts with 50 EMA/ 35 SMA Lines? Can any one help me.
Please delete your post which is totally irrelevant to this thread and post it in a more appropriate thread.
  • #611
  • Mar 23, 2011 5:21pm Mar 23, 2011 5:21pm
Quoting cgrey
Please delete your post which is totally irrelevant to this thread and post it in a more appropriate thread.
LOL. Why did he/she pick this thread (of all that exist) to ask how to place ma's on a chart?? LOL

Anyway, I don't know how anyone here feels about this month and the future of this method, but one month isn't enough to discourage me (which isn't finished yet so it could finish well). I'm not trading this, but if I were. If this method was profitable 10+ months last year, I would feel good about next month or the next several months. Sure it would have been nice to get up early, but reaching profitability in the long run is what matters. Believe in money management.
  • #612
  • Mar 23, 2011 5:30pm Mar 23, 2011 5:30pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
LOL. Why did he/she pick this thread (of all that exist) to ask how to place ma's on a chart?? LOL
Don't know. But now that he can't post anything else in this thread, at least it wont happen again. We were all new once, and we all make mistakes... I try to be tolerant and ask politely, but when that is ignored, to my ignore list they go

Quoting 2+2=4ex
Anyway, I don't know how anyone here feels about this month and the future of this method, but one month isn't enough to discourage me (which isn't finished yet so it could finish well)....
Yeah, there were a few rough months over the past several years. And there will be more. I'm not backing out. Though I will be combining this system with the USD/CHF and EUR/JPY patterns I posted last week.. Since I posted them, USD/CHF hasn't had a loser and by itself has already returned over 5% (when risking 1% per trade). EUR/JPY has been about even. Next month, I'll be putting those two in the same account as this one, and treating them as a group. 1% risk per trade for each, 10% monthly target. So there has been some evolution since this thread started ....
  • #613
  • Mar 24, 2011 8:16pm Mar 24, 2011 8:16pm
Quoting cgrey
Yeah, there were a few rough months over the past several years. And there will be more. I'm not backing out. Though I will be combining this system with the USD/CHF and EUR/JPY patterns I posted last week.. Since I posted them, USD/CHF hasn't had a loser and by itself has already returned over 5% (when risking 1% per trade). EUR/JPY has been about even. Next month, I'll be putting those two in the same account as this one, and treating them as a group. 1% risk per trade for each, 10% monthly target. So there has been some evolution since...
I like your spirit cgrey and I guess that is one of the reasons you are a successful trader. I have been testing some ideas as I like this method and hell bent on making it work for me. As I mentioned in my previous posts, I trade manually (not smart enough to create an EA). I think the losses this month are due to exceptional circumstances:

1. Situation in Japan following the Tsunami
2. War in Libya / Unrest in the Middle East
3. Summer Time change differentials

In addition to your rules, I also added some more rules which have been beneficial to ME. For example, I do not trade this strategy on Wednesdays (historically proved to be a bad day and recent testing confirms this too!). Also I have changed the entry time to 8.05 GMT and increased the SL to 28 pips. I only risk 1.5% per trade and my target is 6% per month. My trade earlier today (24 March 2011 ) was as follows:

Ticket : 9830764
Market Name : X GBP/USD Rolling Daily
Stake :4
Action : Sell
Price : 1.62259
Market Expiry : 5/11/2014 21:00:00
Trade Executed : 24/3/2011 08:25:24

The above trade has closed/part closed the following positions:
This position was closed :
Trade No : 9830507
Market Name : X GBP/USD Rolling Daily
Created : 24/3/2011 08:07:24
Amount : 4
Action : Buy
Price : 1.62195
P/L : 25.60 (GBP)
Total Profit/Loss : 25.60 (GBP)

I know it is only a small profit (6.4 pips) and nothing to boast about. However, if I had followed the original rules it would have been a total loss of 20 pips.

I will continue to fine tune my manual trading and hopefully be in a position to provide some further insights soon. There is no doubting that there is a daily surge/breakout/pullback around the London opening time and we need to find a way to consistently profit from this phenomenon.

Kind regards
  • #614
  • Mar 24, 2011 8:28pm Mar 24, 2011 8:28pm
Quoting Rasi

In addition to your rules, I also added some more rules which have been beneficial to ME...
Making it your own and making it work for you - excellent.

Keep at it and success will follow.
  • #615
  • Mar 24, 2011 8:34pm Mar 24, 2011 8:34pm
Quoting Rasi
I like your spirit cgrey and I guess that is one of the reasons you are a successful trader. I have been testing some ideas as I like this method and hell bent on making it work for me. As I mentioned in my previous posts, I trade manually (not smart enough to create an EA). I think the losses this month are due to exceptional circumstances:

1. Situation in Japan following the Tsunami
2. War in Libya / Unrest in the Middle East
3. Summer Time change differentials

In addition to your rules, I also added some more rules which have been...
The only modification that has crossed my mind after seeing everyone struggling this month is to not set a stop loss and manually close out at -20 pips. Only problem with this is a server disconnect with your broker will leave your trade susceptible to greater loss. It is also susceptible to greater loss if price moves very quick. Obviously for those that use an EA because they cannot attend at that hour this will be impossible.

Similar to cgrey, this will never be my main trading method so I would continue to use a set stop loss and hope that over the long stretch it is profittable and supplements income from trading.

This is just a thought. Just throwing it out there to see what anyone thinks and give us something to talk about.

Good luck!
  • #616
  • Mar 24, 2011 8:38pm Mar 24, 2011 8:38pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
... is to not set a stop loss and manually close out at -20 pips. Only problem with this is a server disconnect with your broker will leave your trade susceptible to greater loss...
Get around this by sending a stop loss of 25 or 30 pips with the trade to protect against server disconnect, but manually close at -20. If you disconnect, yeah, you could end up with a larger loss, but it won't be catastrophic.
  • #617
  • Mar 24, 2011 8:59pm Mar 24, 2011 8:59pm
cgrey, I know you are in same time zone as me, have you adjusted the candle you are trading when daylight savings began? Before it was compare 0 GMT open price with 8 GMT open price. Are you still doing same? Or have you adjusted the GMT times also and are now comparing 23 GMT open with 7 GMT open?

If I remember correctly, I think you said you backtested the same throughout the whole year. Probably not a big difference either, but Just curious.
  • #618
  • Mar 24, 2011 9:17pm Mar 24, 2011 9:17pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
cgrey, I know you are in same time zone as me, have you adjusted the candle you are trading when daylight savings began? Before it was compare 0 GMT open price with 8 GMT open price. Are you still doing same? Or have you adjusted the GMT times also and are now comparing 23 GMT open with 7 GMT open?

If I remember correctly, I think you said you backtested the same throughout the whole year. Probably not a big difference either, but Just curious.
Nevermind this question. I was mainly asking to see if I could pick up on certain patterns in the preceding candles that could maybe act like a filter for some trades. On second thought, this would be overcomplicating things and perhaps invalidate backtesting. We already know the pattern of comparing the overall price difference has worked, so checking for patterns in between might be a moot point.
  • #619
  • Mar 24, 2011 10:00pm Mar 24, 2011 10:00pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
cgrey, I know you are in same time zone as me, have you adjusted the candle you are trading when daylight savings began? Before it was compare 0 GMT open price with 8 GMT open price. Are you still doing same? Or have you adjusted the GMT times also and are now comparing 23 GMT open with 7 GMT open?

If I remember correctly, I think you said you backtested the same throughout the whole year. Probably not a big difference either, but Just curious.
its answered already, GMT is GMT and cgrey mentioned he doesnt change the time for day light. btw, london daylight has not begun. if at all we should sdo we should do this for london not US
  • #620
  • Mar 24, 2011 10:03pm Mar 24, 2011 10:03pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Nevermind this question. I was mainly asking to see if I could pick up on certain patterns in the preceding candles that could maybe act like a filter for some trades. On second thought, this would be overcomplicating things and perhaps invalidate backtesting. We already know the pattern of comparing the overall price difference has worked, so checking for patterns in between might be a moot point.
I never stop looking for patterns... It's what got me on the USD/CHF and EUR/JPY discoveries. USD/CHF has had 5 straight winners since I posted about it. I get bored when a month ends early for me, and that's when I start looking for stuff like this.

If you're still looking for an answer, it's no... I am still looking at 08:00GMT compared to 00:00GMT. Daylight time in London doesn't change until this weekend, so yes, for the past 3 weeks since we rolled our clocks forward, the trading time has been 4am locally (as opposed to 3am), but that's still the same 08:00GMT. As of Monday, it will be back to 3am locally, when London time makes the spring forward. I'll still be trading 08:00GMT, though - that is always constant. It helps when your broker is on GMT - this way you never have to think
0 traders viewing now