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Nb 1.0 trend trade system

  • #1,041
  • Mar 21, 2011 9:36pm Mar 21, 2011 9:36pm
Quoting SandFX
I think I would have to agree with you Swissforex. And take a look at this. I've never had this happen on an EA..

But, I need to seriously double think about this week and even the changes to the MPTM that I made. I may be switching back to the 15-3.

I haven't tested any of the MPTM settings, so my opinion is probably not worth very much. But I will say this: in every variation I tested, the natural impulse turned out to be wrong. The natural impulse is to widen stops, and to lock in profits early. Each of the tests that I ran on this system showed that those steps had the effect of increasing your winning percentage while hurting your profitability.

Lets say you use 15 - 3. This means that when you move to break even, you are leaving yourself only a 12 pip cushion. From the results I've seen, it looks like the initial stops are way beyond this. I think this amounts to choking off the trade. You will end up with lots of break even trades, some small winners, and those will get quickly eaten up by a few losers. You need a very high winning percentage to deal with that. If that's what you have in mind, then why not go with a 15 pip stop loss from the outset?

This system has really big potential. But it's also perfectly possible for two people to hit exactly the same entries and for only one of them to be profitable. And as I've said before, the one who is profitable will also likely be the one with the smaller winning percentage.
  • #1,042
  • Mar 21, 2011 10:59pm Mar 21, 2011 10:59pm
Sorry, but can anyone direct me to the page or posts of how to use the 4h time frame? I am a noob. Sorry
  • #1,043
  • Mar 21, 2011 11:00pm Mar 21, 2011 11:00pm
Quoting duffypratt
I haven't tested any of the MPTM settings, so my opinion is probably not worth very much....
You have convinced me, Duffy. My greed has gotten the best of me as usual. I need someone else to point this out to me and you have done that. I was beginning to wonder when my winning streaks were less and less.

So, Thanks for kicking me in the butt... I needed that

Like I said before.. It's hard to add to perfection.

I believe there is a way to have the auto EA stop trading after a trade has been completed. So, basically, I'm going back to my original .set file and just working on the one problem.

  • #1,044
  • Mar 21, 2011 11:03pm Mar 21, 2011 11:03pm
Quoting chick3n420
Sorry, but can anyone direct me to the page or posts of how to use the 4h time frame? I am a noob. Sorry
Here you go, chick3n420

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=670
  • #1,045
  • Mar 22, 2011 12:09am Mar 22, 2011 12:09am
Quoting SandFX
You have convinced me, Duffy. My greed has gotten the best of me as usual. I need someone else to point this out to me and you have done that. I was beginning to wonder when my winning streaks were less and less.

So, Thanks for kicking me in the butt... I needed that

Like I said before.. It's hard to add to perfection.

I believe there is a way to have the auto EA stop trading after a trade has been completed. So, basically, I'm going back to my original .set file and just working on the one problem.

Hi SandFX,
I just follow this thread recently and it seems like this strategy is simple to understand and follow. Your posts help me learn a lot and thank for that.
I have the same thinking about Break even in MPTM, however, if you don't like the 15-3 default, you can always change it to other number that you like. I may prefer 30, or 35-3... and it may depend on your desired PT.
I still have much to learn from you guys here, so let keep this thread opened for everyone.
  • #1,046
  • Mar 22, 2011 12:56am Mar 22, 2011 12:56am
Quoting SandFX
You have convinced me, Duffy. My greed has gotten the best of me as usual. I need someone else to point this out to me and you have done that. I was beginning to wonder when my winning streaks were less and less.

So, Thanks for kicking me in the butt... I needed that

Like I said before.. It's hard to add to perfection.

I believe there is a way to have the auto EA stop trading after a trade has been completed. So, basically, I'm going back to my original .set file and just working on the one problem.

Also, keep in mind that there are two ways to cover a trade. You can either move the stop to breakeven, or you can leave the stop in place and close enough of the position so you hit breakeven even if you go all the way back to the stop.

The only way to know what option will be the best in the long run is by testing. My big problem with the trade manager is that it seems totally arbitrary. Why 15, or 25, or 30 pips, or any number picked out of thin air? Instead, it makes sense to me to try to identify levels of support or resistance, and change your position as those get broken. Even if this does worse in the short run, there is at least a chance that you will find better spots over time and improve your trading.

I'll get off my soapbox now.
  • #1,047
  • Mar 22, 2011 1:12am Mar 22, 2011 1:12am
Quoting SandFX
Here you go, chick3n420

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=670
Thank you.
  • #1,048
  • Mar 22, 2011 6:34am Mar 22, 2011 6:34am
The MPTM has a specific purpose for certain traders. A trader who is not home when an EA　makes a trade can have one set his SL, TP, TS etc. In counter trend trading it sets a small TP for trades that move just a little and continue on a trend against you. However, in trend trading the MPTM probably will take you out of more profitable trades than it would in protecting you from letting a winner turning into a loser.
  • #1,049
  • Mar 22, 2011 9:37am Mar 22, 2011 9:37am
Something else to consider and might help your profitability would be to close a percentage of your position at a set pip level.

Example:
- 2% Risk per trade
- SL and TP set at 20 pips
- Set SL to BE+1 pip when 10 pips in profit and close 50% of you trade.
- Now your risking 1% and you have locked in some profits if trade goes back to BE.
- If you hit TP the remaining position is closed.

R:R = 1/0.75

Another thing to consider would be to use a trailing stop as a percentage of profit after break even (10 pips) and have your TP set to NULL.
  • #1,050
  • Mar 22, 2011 5:13pm Mar 22, 2011 5:13pm
Hi NB, I have question about MPTM that I hope you can help me with.
When we use MPTM with break even 15+3, do we need to activate the trailing stop function of the MPTM?
For example, after the market is in profit >15 pips, SL will move into break even +3 pips. What about when the market is in profit of >30 pips, or 40 pips?
Thank.
  • #1,051
  • Mar 22, 2011 6:24pm Mar 22, 2011 6:24pm
Quoting nanningbob
The MPTM has a specific purpose for certain traders. A trader who is not home when an EA　makes a trade can have one set his SL, TP, TS etc. In counter trend trading it sets a small TP for trades that move just a little and continue on a trend against you. However, in trend trading the MPTM probably will take you out of more profitable trades than it would in protecting you from letting a winner turning into a loser.
Just got home and brought up the trades... Can't complain. Could have had losses, but I think the settings are working. I guess the Yoga calmed my mind so I can concentrate on my '6 minutes' of grueling research and contemplation. Thanks for the advice, guys. It's really helped. Maybe now I can cut my time back down to 5 minutes.

Well.. I'm gonna check back in a few hours to see how things are going. I'll post some more actual results. I think it's more interesting that way and really shows the pudding.. or custard.. .. or CHEESE CAKE!!.. Yea..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,052
  • Mar 22, 2011 9:38pm Mar 22, 2011 9:38pm
Hey this is what i have for 2 days so far
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,053
  • Mar 23, 2011 2:23am Mar 23, 2011 2:23am
Quoting mtrader87
Hi NB, I have question about MPTM that I hope you can help me with.
When we use MPTM with break even 15+3, do we need to activate the trailing stop function of the MPTM?
For example, after the market is in profit >15 pips, SL will move into break even +3 pips. What about when the market is in profit of >30 pips, or 40 pips?
Thank.
There is a trailing stop function in the MTPM My experience with trailing stops is as soon as they function, price, very strangely for some reason, goes to the stop and hits it. So why lose the pips every time? If I think I　need a TS I just take the profit at that point. That is just my personal feelings though. So it is in the programming if you want to use it. I　have not used it though.
  • #1,054
  • Edited 3:56pm Mar 23, 2011 12:59pm | Edited 3:56pm
Ok, well, I had very interesting experience watching the tail end of my account margin out... When adjusting the BE and BEP the other night, I also decided to "test out" the hedging feature. I turned the hedging feature to "on", and left it at that. I know that NB had mentioned he'd had some experience with the hedging feature with losing trades going to BE.

I put on a few trades including the EURGBP at .1 lots. Can't tell you if it was long or short because I reloaded a new account. I woke up yesterday morning to watch the tail end of my account margin out... there were 1700+ trades at .05 that margined out my account, and then it just stopped.... Oh well, that is what testing is for - to see what works, and to see what doesn't work!

NB, what hedging settings are you using?

I put the account back up again with the following settings: BE 13, BEP 3, Hedging OFF, JSL 25. I loaded two trades last night:

NZDUSD long .74079 closed at .74207 +12.9 pips - $12.80
EURGBP long .86698 closed at .86846 +14.8 pips - $29.06

I see that the EURGPB had a nice upwards spike that looked to be about 48 pips or so, however, it stopped me out early. Maybe I should take my Jumping Stop Loss off and see how it performs. I think that's what I will do.

Tuesday night total: +27.7 pips

So, this is where I'm at.

SandFX, what are you doing differently for testing? I'm thinking about trying Steve Hopwood's auto EA again...

NB, love your system, thank you!
  • #1,055
  • Mar 23, 2011 1:36pm Mar 23, 2011 1:36pm
Quoting Freddyfx
A Dutch banker once told me that on Fridays his traders are not allowed to take on any new positions. Experience has taught him that profits made during the week are very often given back on Fridays.

Who am I to correct one of the Big Boys?
If I hadn't taken any trades on Friday, I would be at breakeven right now, which may be great considering the comments about the crazy week. I am using my own EA slightly different than Steve's. Still not completely perfected but I am going to add code to restrict trading days (not Friday) and possibly times. Have you seen more losses on trades opened from late New York through Asian session? I will observe how that pans out for me.

Also, do you close trades on Friday or leave open?
  • #1,056
  • Mar 23, 2011 1:48pm Mar 23, 2011 1:48pm
Quoting duffypratt
The natural impulse is ... to lock in profits early. Each of the tests that I ran on this system showed that those steps had the effect of increasing your winning percentage while hurting your profitability.

Lets say you use 15 - 3. This means that when you move to break even, you are leaving yourself only a 12 pip cushion. From the results I've seen, it looks like the initial stops are way beyond this. I think this amounts to choking off the trade. You will end up with lots of break even trades, some small winners, and those will get quickly...
Obviously, the decision to move a stop or not depends on the win/loss percentage. You say your tests showed a decrease in profitablility. I do not have a lot of data yet, but my current observations are that the BE stop saves me from more losers than it costs me winners. And I'm sure the main rationale is: if price is moving it may not come back at all, but if it does then it was a fake move. This is also why I'm using a % of ATR for my BE stop so it fits each currency pair better than a fixed amount. You certainly wouldn't want to start with a 15 pip SL because you're virtually guaranteed to get stopped on all your trades (but you were probably just joking, right?).
  • #1,057
  • Mar 23, 2011 5:12pm Mar 23, 2011 5:12pm
Ok

time for posting some bad trades

The EA works properly.
Congratulations to Steve,it's a very good machine.

About results,today was a bad day.

My 2 cents:
NB V1 EA is for lazy Traders (or for regular-job people like me) .
Eg I wouldn't have NEVER-EVER entered that Trade on EURNZD (see img below)
NanningBob rules are very clear and easy to follow,and the Trend "mood" is clear on the chart
To avoid such trades,we should over-optimize this EA and MPTM applying a bunch of filters...not a good solution , IMO

So we have here a good Robot built on a good Trading System that has not been profitable in the last 2 days!!


Just some food for thought .


http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/5...swissforex.gif
Account deleted
  • #1,058
  • Mar 23, 2011 9:46pm Mar 23, 2011 9:46pm
Quoting swissforex
Ok

time for posting some bad trades

The EA works properly.
Congratulations to Steve,it's a very good machine.

About results,today was a bad day.

My 2 cents:
NB V1 EA is for lazy Traders (or for regular-job people like me) .
Eg I wouldn't have NEVER-EVER entered that Trade on EURNZD (see img below)
NanningBob rules are very clear and easy to follow,and the Trend "mood"...
I've had a very long day at work.. just got home. I worked 13 hours today.. I just keep telling myself.. I love my job, I love my job.. LOL

And YES!! I love this EA from Steve. Eric is doing some good work too. Thank goodness for people like them. This week has been a little weird, I admit. But I'm only down 22 pips which isn't too bad. I am one of those people that need an EA like this because I have to work so much.

It's great to see everyones results. I've worked a long day, so I'm gonna pass on posting results tonight. I've done my 5 minutes of research and set up more EAs, so I'm gonna check again after dinner and then hit the sack

Night..
  • #1,059
  • Mar 23, 2011 9:52pm Mar 23, 2011 9:52pm
Quoting SandFX
I've had a very long day at work.. just got home. I worked 13 hours today.....
So, let me see if I have this right. It's 13 hours at the job you "love". And then the arduous chore of 5 minutes of research on the job you "hate." Do I have it right? Or is there something backwards in the picture?
  • #1,060
  • Mar 23, 2011 10:50pm Mar 23, 2011 10:50pm
Quoting duffypratt
So, let me see if I have this right. It's 13 hours at the job you "love". And then the arduous chore of 5 minutes of research on the job you "hate." Do I have it right? Or is there something backwards in the picture?
Comparing the two.. job or trading? The trading kicks me in the butt!

If I was only in the position to just be trading right now... which would I rather do?.. mmm I think I want my job because of the BENEFITS!! JK.. (well, here in the U.S. a lot of jobs provide medical benefits) ..

and I'm just kidding.. I WOULD MUCH RATHER BE TRADING!! 5 minutes per session 3-4 times a day really beats 13 hour days anytime. I like reading NBs essay on his 5 year plan. I just may implement that.
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