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EURUSD

  • #410,381
  • Mar 20, 2011 3:10pm Mar 20, 2011 3:10pm
EU Still long for a while....hope this is a busy week!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu w1long.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #410,382
  • Mar 20, 2011 3:19pm Mar 20, 2011 3:19pm
Quoting thorr
i got the same opinion
if we didn't have surprise with rate hike in Eur that pair would be down already.
On the other hand most of rate raise is already in price , the same story like with QE2, 24 hours after announcement we had huge move down which have lasted for the next month and move the pair to ca. 1,3
what will move this pair up after EU decision ?
i guess nothing
Nice chart thorr. However, from a FA perspective your chart it maybe a little bit lagging. What you are correctly pointing out in your charts is the "slips" of the ECB hike but the actual rally since January is purely based on a rate hike.

IMO, what is in play right now is not if there is going to be an increase (thats a certainty) but how many points will be and how "gradual" it will be. All ECB comments lately (including the involuntary "slips") are part of ECB Monetary Policy on inflation and interest rates expectations. On the expectations side, the key issues is the impact of higher interest rates on the Debt problematic countries and on inflation, Oil prices and strong macro numbers in Germany (and others) are strongly claiming for a bigger hike that will be "unacceptable" for debt problematic countries.

In simple words, the actual decision is almost irrelevant (except for the untradable huge volatility right after the announcement) as most of the move is already digested on charts, but the expectations of further increase is what will decide if a further break up will be possible.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #410,383
  • Mar 20, 2011 3:31pm Mar 20, 2011 3:31pm
Quoting PhAnTi'
couldnt resist to come back for several weeks... : p

hey ^^
Hey hey hey heyo wayo ^^

Inserted Video


Hey hey hey heyo wayo ^^



;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #410,384
  • Mar 20, 2011 3:35pm Mar 20, 2011 3:35pm
Quoting mercy seat
Hey hey hey heyo wayo ^^

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVH-x4szOEI

Hey hey hey heyo wayo ^^



;-|
Alles nur Vorwand.
Unter 50k mach ich garnichts....auser mein Blog....wenn ich mit dme iwann mal 2k/Monat netto mache wäre es ganz nett als Start
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #410,385
  • Edited 3:59pm Mar 20, 2011 3:41pm | Edited 3:59pm
Quoting sisse
Nice chart thorr. However, from a FA perspective your chart it maybe a little bit lagging. What you are correctly pointing out in your charts is the "slips" of the ECB hike but the actual rally since January is purely based on a rate hike.



sisse
Hi sisse

thats all true
i am doing in international trade ( food wholesaling ) and i have noticed some issues.
Right now the food prices are the the highest levels in history ( in Eurozone dairy is being traded at unacceptable prices ) we had that situation 2 years ago when food prices hit the roof, but they caused nothing more but bankruptcy of some weaker factories and after short time they decreased strongly .
The Eurozone export in dairy was dead when euro was around 1,5
and i really mean dead , eg. skimmed milk powder have been send to Algeria from US not from EU at all.
The strong euro really kills the export from EU and that is not a slogan .
Last 2 years the weakness of euro have cured situation and thats why EU and mostly German numbers were good.
What i am trying to say is that food prices are very volatile and will go down strongly easing the inflation pressure , we got high oil as well but i thing that will change as well.

I got the opinion that if we will have some rise in rates it will be small and will not be followed the other rises soon. They will just wait and watch.
So EUR/USD is doomed for going down
But that's just my view on fundies and i appreciate the fact that i can share my point
  • #410,386
  • Mar 20, 2011 3:42pm Mar 20, 2011 3:42pm
Quoting PhAnTi'
Alles nur Vorwand.
Unter 50k mach ich garnichts....auser mein Blog....wenn ich mit dme iwann mal 2k/Monat netto mache wäre es ganz nett als Start
Hugh !

Da können wir später noch mal beratschlagen ... arbeite an neuen Sachen im 4 Stunden TIME FRAME ...

Auf der Investica waren aber auch gute Leute ... I know that ... because I know some who has been there ...

How long has it been ? One Week ?

Inserted Video


BTW here are the pictures nicer ... but sound on file before better ...

Heyo !


2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #410,387
  • Mar 20, 2011 3:43pm Mar 20, 2011 3:43pm
Quoting mercy seat
Hugh !

Da können wir später noch mal beratschlagen ... arbeite an neuen Sachen im 4 Stunden TIME FRAME ...

Auf der Investica waren aber auch gute Leute ... I know that ... because I know some who has been there ...

How long has it been ? One Week ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sYKz...eature=related

BTW here are the pictures nicer ... but sound on file before better ...

Heyo !


sehr gerne.

3 tage,ja waren auch gute Leute,aber viel mist....
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #410,388
  • Mar 20, 2011 3:47pm Mar 20, 2011 3:47pm
1.4207

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...Bg_m_PHvbE6qDw
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #410,389
  • Mar 20, 2011 3:49pm Mar 20, 2011 3:49pm
Quoting PhAnTi'
sehr gerne.

3 tage,ja waren auch gute Leute,aber viel mist....
Tja ... klar ... das bleibt nicht aus auf solchen Messe-Austellungen ...

Next more important one is in PARIS ...
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #410,390
  • Mar 20, 2011 3:51pm Mar 20, 2011 3:51pm
1-2-3 for daily bulls in a row with a rare high set on a Sunday / Monday?

Nov 4th 2010'high of 4281' kissed to show double
Top before reversal down, and maybe a 200-400'range until the ecb meetings in last part of the week.

Either way in the pair is rangebound for a day or two
  • #410,391
  • Mar 20, 2011 4:02pm Mar 20, 2011 4:02pm
we will fight them at the fib levels. Hold the line

Three weeks from now, I will be harvesting my crops. Imagine where you will be, and it will be so. Hold the line! Stay with me! If you find yourself alone, riding in the green fields with the sun on your face, do not be troubled. For you are in Elysium, and you're already dead!

Inserted Video




Quoting Chicky
1.4207

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...Bg_m_PHvbE6qDw
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #410,392
  • Mar 20, 2011 4:03pm Mar 20, 2011 4:03pm
Quoting PhAnTi'
sehr gerne.

3 tage,ja waren auch gute Leute,aber viel mist....

Kennste den Vogel hier ?

Inserted Video


Lebt leider nicht mehr ...

Smack Fresse ...

But beautiful ...
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #410,393
  • Mar 20, 2011 4:05pm Mar 20, 2011 4:05pm
Quoting mercy seat
Kennste den Vogel hier ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL3brOXctHs

Lebt leider nicht mehr ...

Smack Fresse ...

But beautiful ...
jetzt ja

< 3

^^
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #410,394
  • Mar 20, 2011 4:05pm Mar 20, 2011 4:05pm
Since nobody mentioned that, I think it's worth noticing...

E/U went through the roof last week while COT open interest fell strongly.
  • #410,395
  • Mar 20, 2011 4:18pm Mar 20, 2011 4:18pm
Market range since opening Wellington 1.4197 - 1.4174 ...

No big deals atm ...
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #410,396
  • Mar 20, 2011 4:23pm Mar 20, 2011 4:23pm
Quoting mercy seat
Market range since opening Wellington 1.4197 - 1.4174 ...

No big deals atm ...
Yes. No big deals. Relaxing a bit
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_onSmoMdGmz...rket-other.jpg
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #410,397
  • Mar 20, 2011 4:34pm Mar 20, 2011 4:34pm
Quoting Chicky
1.4207

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...Bg_m_PHvbE6qDw
could be a nice one. 15 pip s =-1%
15 pip green =1%
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #410,398
  • Mar 20, 2011 4:34pm Mar 20, 2011 4:34pm
Is anyone noticing random 10 pip or more spread increases on the Eurusd with their broker?
Shapeshift greed and catch em' off guard
  • #410,399
  • Mar 20, 2011 4:35pm Mar 20, 2011 4:35pm
Quoting Chicky
Yes. No big deals. Relaxing a bit
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_onSmoMdGmz...rket-other.jpg
Hehe ^^

Nice one ...
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #410,400
  • Mar 20, 2011 4:37pm Mar 20, 2011 4:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
could be a nice one. 15 pip s =-1%
15 pip green =1%
Small short in play .08%, rest pending. Target 1%.
The Thief of Wall Street
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