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  • #410,261
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:11am Mar 20, 2011 10:11am
Quoting matlock
https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-e...v_analysis.png

Ok, rookies, here you go.

EUR/USD - Daily chart
good one - almost perfect time to end up in a bulltrap.
  • #410,262
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:19am Mar 20, 2011 10:19am
Quoting matlock
So you think the price is heading to 1.50? Have you ever heard about Elliot Wave Analysis or market's cyclical nature?

Second, if I were you I would use some other indicators, not only moving average(?) though...

Please check out my blog and read the writing about the dollar index, it has signs of possible retracement. As well as swissy and gold.
After 5 years of give and take, the later 3 being more take than give. I would rather slap myself for fun every morning when I awake that have anymore crap than that on my screen. Everybody's got their own way, so I wasn't knocking yours. I wasn't knocking your analysis as I stated. It was the rookies thing that just tickled me too much.
  • #410,263
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:20am Mar 20, 2011 10:20am
you could be correct. let me however point something here. the rsi found bottom around the 40 level (that's bullish) and started rising and turned around at 70(bearish) so pretty unclear at this point. The last thing it did, was bouncing off 50 and moving up from there(very bullish). if that trend line is breached the divergence becomes invalid. so all i'm saying is it is at a critical point and it's not over until it's over. it can pretty much go either way. from my charts, monthly still has room up, but it's monthly and we are not trading that.

Quoting matlock
Definition of the fifth wave:
"Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak)."

The lenght of the fifth wave is not that imporant if divergences and hype can be seen in the market. There's...
  • #410,264
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:20am Mar 20, 2011 10:20am
Quoting SerpentDove
After 5 years of give and take, the later 3 being more take than give. I would rather slap myself for fun every morning when I awake that have anymore crap than that on my screen. Everybody's got their own way, so I wasn't knocking yours. I wasn't knocking your analysis as I stated. It was the rookies thing that just tickled me too much.
Sorry, mate. My rookie saying was just for them who hadn't noticed this by themselves/entered a long right now, don't be offended at all.
  • #410,265
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:21am Mar 20, 2011 10:21am
"in bullish market ,there are always people shouting for bearish."
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #410,266
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:22am Mar 20, 2011 10:22am
Quoting matlock
...... The lenght of the fifth wave is not that imporant if divergences and hype can be seen in the market. ...
My point has more to do with your wave3 being shorter than your wave1.

If wave3 "can't" be the shortest than that means wave5 "has to be".

The reason why I use quote marks around those words is because this follows the Elliott Wave purists (which I am not) rule about wave3 can't be the shortest.

I follow but allow flexibilty with the 3 basic rules of EW because sometimes the market doesn't always follow the rules and I'd rather be in/or exiting a trade than right on the rules but in a losing situation
  • #410,267
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:25am Mar 20, 2011 10:25am
Quoting Alihuzaifa
weekly charts says EU gonna sink...
No sl?

Regarding upper tl, how do you know we topped already?
I wish I can be as confident as you.
  • #410,268
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:26am Mar 20, 2011 10:26am
Quoting Alihuzaifa
weekly charts says EU gonna sink...
I need a nap.
  • #410,269
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:31am Mar 20, 2011 10:31am
Quoting attila
you could be correct. let me however point something here. the rsi found bottom around the 40 level (that's bullish) and started rising and turned around at 70(bearish) so pretty unclear at this point. The last thing it did, was bouncing off 50 and moving up from there. if that trend line is breached the divergence becomes invalid. so all i'm saying is it is at a critical point and it's not over until it's over. it can pretty much go either way. from my charts, monthly still has room up, but it's monthly and we are not trading that.
RSI or RSX (whatever) made bottoms at 40 before starting trending up - true it, was bullish as it made a hidden bullish divergence. But now, it's making a new divergence, an opposite one. If it stays below the previous peak, it's still divergence. OK, I admit that if it breaks through that downtrend line it may 'go bad' but breakouts might be also false.

If the RSI goes above 70 it's going overbought. I wouldn't enter a long trade for swing purposes then.
  • #410,270
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:35am Mar 20, 2011 10:35am
Quoting matlock
RSI or RSX (whatever) made bottoms at 40 before starting trending up - true it, was bullish as it made a hidden bullish divergence. But now, it's making a new divergence, an opposite one. If it stays below the previous peak, it's still divergence. OK, I admit that if it breaks through that downtrend line it may 'go bad' but breakouts might be also false.

If the RSI goes above 70 it's going overbought. I wouldn't enter a long trade for swing purposes then.

the rsi also has a bad habit of bouncing between 50 and 70 before making up it's mind and that can throw a curve ball into all these. GL anyway.
  • #410,271
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:39am Mar 20, 2011 10:39am
Quoting matlock
Definition of the fifth wave:
"Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak)."

The lenght of the fifth wave is not that imporant if divergences and hype can be seen in the market. There's...
A minor note.... your w4 is in price territory of w1.
  • #410,272
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:39am Mar 20, 2011 10:39am
I think I will go berserk. Obviously the term here is used as a pejorative which, in a sense, defeats the idea of posting strategies and experiences in the arena of ideas. It's like now the ones who are new to fx have the added burden of not offending the old farts on this board or they get vilified for daring to share something.

I got an idea. Let's make the word 'rookie' illegal.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #410,273
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:44am Mar 20, 2011 10:44am
These air strikes that have happened over the weekend should produce some volatile price movement yes or no?

Western governments want rid of Daffy by the looks of things
rat
  • #410,274
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:45am Mar 20, 2011 10:45am
Quoting pkimnyc
A minor note.... your w4 is in price territory of w1.
Yup didn't catch that. Another EW "rules" no-no.

I follow the belief that wave4 cannot have a close into the closing range of wave1, which in this case it does as well.

My thinking is we are in a wave5 of a greater wave3 (chart to post shortly).
  • #410,275
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:45am Mar 20, 2011 10:45am
Quoting Taigen
I think I will go berserk. Obviously the term here is used as a pejorative which, in a sense, defeats the idea of posting strategies and experiences in the arena of ideas. It's like now the ones who are new to fx have the added burden of not offending the old farts on this board or they get vilified for daring to share something.

I got an idea. Let's make the word 'rookie' illegal.
Can't say gap and can't say rookie.... what else r we forgetting?
  • #410,276
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:47am Mar 20, 2011 10:47am
Quoting pkimnyc
Can't say gap and can't say rookie.... what else r we forgetting?
LOL anyone know what the most used words on here are?
  • #410,277
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:51am Mar 20, 2011 10:51am
Quoting PipChick
LOL anyone know what the most used words on here are?
Hi pc, let me guess... muppet?
  • #410,278
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:57am Mar 20, 2011 10:57am
Quoting PipChick
LOL anyone know what the most used words on here are?
maybe this week, capitulation
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #410,279
  • Mar 20, 2011 11:04am Mar 20, 2011 11:04am
Quoting Taigen
I think I will go berserk. Obviously the term here is used as a pejorative which, in a sense, defeats the idea of posting strategies and experiences in the arena of ideas. It's like now the ones who are new to fx have the added burden of not offending the old farts on this board or they get vilified for daring to share something.

I got an idea. Let's make the word 'rookie' illegal.
as a matter of equitte, I state "no offense meant "because it is a courtesy. It was the way my generation was raised, by the previous generation. Equitte is something that has been lost thru the years. The younger generations were taught that, you can say, you can do, you should be rewarded for poor performance and bad attitude because "your special", and to me I haven't seen much in the way of "special" about anyone who can't back up their knowledge wit and charm with a little courtesy. Which is why, in my mind there's so many argueing to get their point across....btw.. just because you think I'm new to this Forum thread, do you also think that I'm new to Forex or trading or anything else, tht ... I'm a newbie? How small your world is if you do not think beyond
your boundaries. lol
PS. I was taught to control my emotions, and you have heard that it is needed to become a good trader so why are you guys freaking out over a few words? newbie, rookie who cares,,,, no offense meant
  • #410,280
  • Mar 20, 2011 11:05am Mar 20, 2011 11:05am
Quoting pkimnyc
Hi pc, let me guess... muppet?
LOL yep.
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