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  • #410,141
  • Mar 19, 2011 10:51am Mar 19, 2011 10:51am
Quoting FishHead
How are people so confident that E/U will be hitting 1.5?

I trade trends and everything long-term is telling me that this is the peak outside of a pesky upward TL on my weekly TF. H4 and below says up, weekly and above says down, but A/D is also looking awfully high so I'm leaning down.
agree, but at a major reversal, which this would represent, I would expect major new economic info (Friday's EU summit, at which top of the agenda will be EZ debt restructuring) and a major shakeout, could be a major spike designed to take out short stops and sucker in break out bulls. We'll see...
  • #410,142
  • Mar 19, 2011 10:53am Mar 19, 2011 10:53am
Oh...
And I will born as CHRIST later

Quoting T@rantula
Sure.
And I am a Saint Joseph.
Quoting Patience
Yeah, sure, one last thing. I'm the Virgin Mary.
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #410,143
  • Mar 19, 2011 11:02am Mar 19, 2011 11:02am
Quoting gatorinla
approaching 4280 area..
of course

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=410110
  • #410,144
  • Mar 19, 2011 11:34am Mar 19, 2011 11:34am
Quoting Tsar
You got much Points Value

Price @ 1.4250 for Next Week, Bro
At Last FRIDAY...
He can broken Price @ 1.4161

BULLISH will continue to Price 1.4284 as DOUBLE TOP for Re-TEST Resistance 3
If can broke, We will see HELLO to Price +1.4349 as FIBO 61.8%
If can NOT, Retrice will come...
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Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #410,145
  • Mar 19, 2011 12:04pm Mar 19, 2011 12:04pm
Quoting jezek5
If DX doesn't hold this level it could be
in a lot of trouble.76.00.
Next stop 75.45 if 76.00 goes.
Tested it last night and here we are again.
DX playing as i expected,down side targets the same
as i posted in the Swissy thread a few days ago,
74.40 and if that doesn't hold then next stop 72.50
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #410,146
  • Edited 12:23pm Mar 19, 2011 12:04pm | Edited 12:23pm
Quoting gordonfx
not expected ("desired" for a lack of a better word
)but very much appreciated by this newer member.
no offense meant to you attila.
OldQuant and ahhh.... I would venture to say 3 or 4 more are worth paying attention to. You know who they are. The rest are just the royal court buffoons. They bring no value. They are always involved in fights with other traders or just plain try to boost their ego by making fun on others (probably trying to compensate for some unresolved issues at home). Somebody who is secure in their trading would not do these things. No need to, because they KNOW the other party is at disadvantage. Why would you hit or put somebody down you know is weaker than you? Ignoring or better yet trying to help speaks volumes of what kind of trader/human being you are.

Many times I'm sitting here watching and laughing. I pay attention where these so called traders (senior members) set their SL. If they set it to an arbitrary amount (20,50 pips), that tells me they are playing the numbers game. They are probably 50-60 pips/day kind of players. Not saying it's bad, but sorry to break it to you. You are not a trader. The other SL situation is just above some resistance and they go short to some TP, just because it looks good, overlooking they are playing a retrace on a higher time frame.

Anyway, I don't know about you but I instantly pay attention to somebody that doesn't use stop losses (except the WTF one). Traders using SL or trailing stops (other than when they can not be on the screen) to tell them when they are wrong, are a joke in my opinion. One should be able to realize then they are wrong fairly soon (and be able to make a decision fast).

I've posted this yesterday, but it probably went unnoticed or over the head of most here, so here it is again:


Quoting attila
Step No 1. look for hesitation around key levels
Step No. 2. look for supply below
Step No. 3. If it goes through the next main supply level, there's a good chance will continue down.
The trend will start showing signs of turning around on lower TFs. If it's sincere it will start dragging the higher TFs one after the other.
What's a sign of turning around? LH/LL
Quoting attila
That's why you should only scalp around key levels, lower TFs only. Like I said if m1 starts making LH/LL now watch the key supply on m5. if that gives in watch for LH/LL on m5 and so on. Understand that trading happens on only ONE time frame at a time. Trading moves around TFs and there is no rule when and for how long that happens. You need to be able to identify what TF is in play at this particular moment. If the price is moving fast, forget about it and move to m15 and up. Hard to explain, you have to keep all information across ALL time frames...
I should add the use if indicators.... I don't use them as overbought/oversold signals. That's the wrong way. You use them (and you better know them well) to tell you IF IT'S MORE ROOM for your TP to be hit. Let me repeat this: you use them not for entries but to tell you if there is enough room for the price to move to your TP. If the m15 stochastic (not using stochastic, just picking on one) is flat at the top but your higher TF one has room to go, don't go short on m15, go long on h1 and so on....You get the idea.

Bottom line is this. Don't wait for the market to tell you were wrong. Find a way to follow the market across multiple time frames. Any one here ever asked a simple question? Why so few succeed?

I ask a different question. If everybody's doing something and extremely few make it, then I better find a better way. Because there is always a better way. I am trading totally differently from what it's being taught/preached here and this is the reason I don't post a lot of analysis. For one, it changes several times a day as the market moves and whips around. All I can do is post some numbers (targets) when I feel strong about them, and that's about it.

PS: for the ones picking on my spelling or my English, knock yourself out. I don't care. It's my second language and I know I speak better English than you speak my language. LOL.
  • #410,147
  • Mar 19, 2011 12:53pm Mar 19, 2011 12:53pm
Quoting redsword11
Attachment


a closer look @ s/d zones and PA

Attachment

........... the left

Attachment


the right




........... further PA - possible swing week next week

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  • #410,148
  • Edited 1:37pm Mar 19, 2011 1:06pm | Edited 1:37pm
Quoting attila
OldQuant and ahhh....
PS: for the ones picking on my spelling or my English, knock yourself out. I don't care. It's my second language and I know I speak better English than you speak my language. LOL.
attila,
if you are refferring to me as ahhh, then i take it in a good natured manner from you, the thing is we know each other, I know that you are a good trader, so if you think i was picking on you or your language or speech, you are wrong in your assumption, and i understand why. The members of that famous gang where tortured, you and i know that ,so enough said. except that i too had the same mentor and we both will never forget the contributions and lessons learned. I just don't waste time on responses anymore too much fun to just Trade.
G
ps. because you and i hve hd conversations before, in another "hidden' world where our ideas flowed freely nd we even had a virtual ice cream room,,,,that is why I specifically mentioned that I was not trying to offend you......
  • #410,149
  • Mar 19, 2011 1:12pm Mar 19, 2011 1:12pm
Quoting jezek5
Oh,i use tight stops,thanks for letting me know
i'm a crap trader,i better find another job.
Cheers.
I think ya better read through again. If you use tight stops, doesn't make you a crap trader, but setting arbitrary amounts based on random entries might just mean that you don't have a full comprehension of trend, triggers and over all PA....


Quoting attila
Many times I'm sitting here watching and laughing. I pay attention where these so called traders (senior members) set their SL. If they set it to an arbitrary amount (20,50 pips), that tells me they are playing the numbers game.
I do agree with Attilla here...and I am sure that we both run off of faster charts taking what the immediate range will offer. My WTF stops are in the 20 pip range because if I have taken an entry, it means that 20 pips against means I am on the complete wrong side of the trade, and on this, it is rare that I let a trade run into a "20 pip against me" stop, they are in place for the quick, "Stick it to ya", (dare I say) Stop hunts that we periodically see during the active volume sessions. Direction is typically apparent, but that don't mean shit cannot stop and turn on ya in a heartbeat. Go for a quick leak and see profit run into loss...who needs that?

I think the attack is more made on ambiguity then on the size of the stop. Drop a trade in with a 20 pip stop, you are typically just daring the market to stop you out...take a 20 pip stop on a trigger on trend off the 1M chart and it means your ass is covered...

Now all these guys who claim to or do trade off the higher tf's don't go getting all sensitive and stuff...read into each post as it applies...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #410,150
  • Mar 19, 2011 1:21pm Mar 19, 2011 1:21pm
Quoting Patience
Yeah, sure, one last thing. I'm the Virgin Mary.
As far as I know currency trading (changing of money) has been around since the begining of time, and has been a form of bisiness. Like any business you have to know that business or learn it very quickly to stay in business. If I am wrong the please tell me.
"And found in the temple those that sold oxen and sheep and doves, and the changers of money sitting:
And when he had made a scourge of small cords, he drove them all out of the temple, and the sheep, and the oxen; and poured out the changers' money, and overthrew the tables; "(John 2:14-15)
  • #410,151
  • Mar 19, 2011 1:25pm Mar 19, 2011 1:25pm
Quoting Magix
I think ya better read through again....
Excellent advice as always...
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #410,152
  • Mar 19, 2011 1:26pm Mar 19, 2011 1:26pm
I think the writing is on the wall here folks...

Without getting into the fundamental arguments or cross pair correlations, running an idea of the techs for me is always the path..

I really could give a shit less about what is happening right out of my immediate life area and that will only change when I consider a relocation...I am not a Price Cheerleader, don't spend an American Dollar nor the Euro, so in the grand scheme of life, with all things being equal, I don't let that shit clutter my mind either...

A couple of things I wanna point out on the weekly chart...

1. Excessive volume without an excessive movement. Now perhaps Mal or one of the Malerinas will be kind enough to stop in with a chart of their own, but I think we can all agree that trends start and stop on volume and what we have for this week is a pretty great surge in volume...What does it mean, well, from my standpoint, I look for this same thing on a 1m chart to confirm my exits and entries. Surge, s/r, either looking to take profit or get into a trade...off the weekly, I think we are looking at the beginning of the end.

2. We have a Moving Average Cross...Now, if ya ever worked with any EA's or anybody that programs EA's or if ya listen to dicksmacks that say, Moving Averages suck and that trading off the crosses is suicide...it is because they are right on the money(trading crosses as trend triggers suck)...I trade the crosses all the time and if you have a buttload of time and wanna see how, I would encourage you to go back through and look for my former posts on this exact cross.

3. Double tops on the play.

4. Upper Trend Line.

Now see what you want, trade what you want...this is just my dos centavos...

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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #410,153
  • Mar 19, 2011 1:33pm Mar 19, 2011 1:33pm
Quoting snatch
hey magix!

hope you didnt suspend me.... hahhaaaaaha...

PS for those trying to short eu, you are on the wrong side of history... unless you get a daily close below 1.3750, only look for buys...

If you want something to short, have a look at your UKFTSE100...

Double-dip recession here it comes...

Nothing has changed since this post, and for those who were busy shorting the euro last week, having read the above, ouch... the dollar has really become worthless.... but euro bears, watch out for 4205-4230.. the best region for calling a top if you believe that the japan scenario will effect global growth...

if you trade futures, both S&P and UKFTSE100 had their retracement, and are primed for put downs..

have a nice weekend all and keeeeeeeeeeeep dancing...
  • #410,154
  • Mar 19, 2011 1:44pm Mar 19, 2011 1:44pm
Quoting Magix
I think the writing is on the wall here folks...

Without getting into the fundamental arguments or cross pair correlations, running an idea of the techs for me is always the path..

I really could give a shit less about what is happening right out of my immediate life area and that will only change when I consider a relocation...I am not a Price Cheerleader, don't spend an American Dollar nor the Euro, so in the grand scheme of life, with all things being equal, I don't let that shit clutter my mind either...

A couple of things I wanna point out...
your crosses r so sweet...ducks,crushes and smacks.All a trader needs imo.
not taking the pipsicle.. 'til Monday.
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #410,155
  • Mar 19, 2011 1:58pm Mar 19, 2011 1:58pm
Quoting snatch
Nothing has changed since this post, and for those who were busy shorting the euro last week, having read the above, ouch... the dollar has really become worthless.... but euro bears, watch out for 4205-4230.. the best region for calling a top if you believe that the japan scenario will effect global growth...

if you trade futures, both S&P and UKFTSE100 had their retracement, and are primed for put downs..

have a nice weekend all and keeeeeeeeeeeep dancing...
lol

Cummon Anna...

After all your Mad Ass posts about being able to find the trades, you didn't find a single short last week in 2 x 150ish retrace opportunities?

Save the rhetoric for the elitists and morons that will back you on this shit...here you just come off as being an irritating Snatch...
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #410,156
  • Mar 19, 2011 1:59pm Mar 19, 2011 1:59pm
Quoting Magix
I think the writing is on the wall here folks...

Without getting into the fundamental arguments or cross pair correlations, running an idea of the techs for me is always the path..

2. We have a Moving Average Cross...Now, if ya ever worked with any EA's or anybody that programs EA's or if ya listen to dicksmacks that say, Moving Averages suck and that trading off the crosses is suicide...it is because they are right on the money(trading crosses as trend triggers suck)...I trade the crosses all the time and if you have a buttload of time and...
Went back and took another look at the weekly,,,, you could be right on the money,,,and I could be so wrong looking for .4280
learned another lesson from you today....thanks.
  • #410,157
  • Mar 19, 2011 2:15pm Mar 19, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting gordonfx
Went back and took another look at the weekly,,,, you could be right on the money,,,and I could be so wrong looking for .4280
learned another lesson from you today....thanks.
We may not make it past 4280 but we will at least test it this week...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #410,158
  • Mar 19, 2011 2:29pm Mar 19, 2011 2:29pm
Quoting Magix
I think the writing is on the wall here folks...

Without getting into the fundamental arguments or cross pair correlations, running an idea of the techs for me is always the path..

I really could give a shit less about what is happening right out of my immediate life area and that will only change when I consider a relocation...I am not a Price Cheerleader, don't spend an American Dollar nor the Euro, so in the grand scheme of life, with all things being equal, I don't let that shit clutter my mind either...

A couple of things I wanna point...
I religiously use NY 5pm closing charts as you have here. From a VSA perspective, background strength is still there and very evidenced by closing at the top of the weekly bar BUT it needs to be confirmed by next week's print. The high volume is potentially indiciative of the big boys selling into the strength, OR a continued surge upwards - it may well be the latter. Either way, there is more upside: the DTL might just be that limit.

Sometimes (rarely) I use a GMT MT4 closing - the picture there (all the charts below), from a VSA perspective - is quite different. It shows a clear rejection of all lows - consistently - with huge stopping volumes - this is best seen on the daily chart. My broker is Citibank, and to my knowledge, in addition to the much greater volume (tick) flow count (see legend) - represents a good cross section of institutional flows, as they are the #4 liquidity provider in fx. (more than RBS, JPM, HSBC, GS and MS)

Interestingly, the weekly print shows the same high volume - the key often is in breaking it down to smaller timeframes. The problem becomes, were sellers absorbed, or was the upthrust sold into. Flipping down to lower timeframes is necessary to confirm this; H4 shows the exact same enthusiastic buying of the lows, as does H1. It's actually uncanny. Going back weeks, there has been strength in EURUSD - every pullback has been minor in comparison, and it trudges onwards and upwards each time. Until proven otherwise, there aren't many reasons to doubt that concentrated buying/upwardness, at least until we see next week's print.

There are many tricks that smart money can play. They might be ready to start unloading what was bought hundreds of pips ago. We will see once we hit the DTL. But so far, the highest volumes have been on the H4 and H1 charts, showing clear buying of the lows. We could be looking at the beginning of the end, but if 1.42x is the (TL) barrier, thus 50-100 pips away, I think it will upthrust twice beyond that, to build a no demand scenario, that will take at least 1-2 weeks to play out.
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  • #410,159
  • Mar 19, 2011 2:29pm Mar 19, 2011 2:29pm
Quoting gordonfx
Went back and took another look at the weekly,,,, you could be right on the money,,,and I could be so wrong looking for .4280
learned another lesson from you today....thanks.
It shows up as kind of a blurr unless you see the full thing Gord, but if you look at where the double tops line and the UTL intersect, you actually come pretty close to that .4280 line...on this 4 dig broker chart that I used for example, it actually shows as 4285...

Do we get there? Won't know until we do.

Will we stop and reverse there? I would anticipate that if we do get there, we will see a price reaction...

Until price is on the historical side of the chart, I don't think anybody could tell you with 100% certainty where we are headed, but much like attilla was saying, trend towards support/resistance, not assume tops n bottoms.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #410,160
  • Mar 19, 2011 2:45pm Mar 19, 2011 2:45pm
Quoting Beljevina
The high volume is potentially indiciative of the big boys selling into the strength, OR a continued surge upwards - it may well be the latter. Either way, there is more upside: the DTL might just be that limit.

But so far, the highest volumes have been on the H4 and H1 charts, showing clear buying of the lows. We could be looking at the beginning of the end, but if 1.42x is the (TL) barrier, thus 50-100 pips away, I think it will upthrust twice beyond that, to build a no demand scenario, that will take at least 1-2 weeks to play out.
Excellent reply Bel...Was hoping we would get one of the VSA'ers if not Mother Mal himself chiming in on this...

I have read threw and studied a quite a few of Hiddengaps charts and posts as well as relate the same information from my days as watching volumes in the stock markets. Someplace in the mix they make a fair amount of sense.

IF we had seen a massive high volume bar and clean broken threw that DTL, I would say that we stand a better chance at the higher highs...but like you pointed out, we haven't even gotten to that point, so assumption of continuation of trend does make infinitely more sense then the assumption of an all out market reversal...

Reactionary points.

We have a whole week ahead of us that we will most likely find a few trades in both directions as we continue to this point. Until we break and retest as support, I will only see this as a possible topside stop and watch as we approach like a hawk..

Maybe I should have been a little more specific and clear in my previous post...Would hate to think that others failed to read clearly and are already looking to short market open under the assumption that the END is hear when truly my message and market sentiment are:
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