USD/JPY Discussion

2011.03.18 16:59:38UPDATE: Canada To Deploy Figher Jets To Libya
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wa, my god!!!



2011.03.18 16:50:54MARKET TALK: Intervention Goals Different From Prior Coordination
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2011.03.18 17:07:22*Widespread Talk In Market That Central Banks Still Selling Yen

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2011.03.18 17:24:54*Traders Estimates Of Fed Intervention Now Range $600M-$1B

2011.03.18 17:14:54*Trader Estimates Of Fed Intervention Now Assume $50M Per Bank
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$50M? that's useless.



2011.03.18 17:28:11BOJ Current-Account Balance To Hit Record Over Y40T -Nikkei
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BOJ have enough yen to sell? only use y2t to sell today?



2011.03.18 18:10:47MARKET TALK: Fed Buying Dollars Will Shrink Balance Sheet
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HEY HEY!!

Intervention is great at times of low liquidity. What else would the fed do on a friday afternoon (besides sell some yen).

How come nobody has added me to twitter? (omegaexchange)<---thats me! come on folks! help a brother out!

What is a "US Treasuries yield", and why are some people expecting US treasuries yields to increase in the face of intervention?

I googled for it and found daily spreadsheets listing the Treasuries yields, but I don't really understand what I'm looking at.

Hope this helps a little. US Treasuries

As long as above 80 they might not intervene...they want to phuck the speculators...so 80 and low liquidity time...and they strike...Opening of market sunday U.S. time sounds like a good time if around 80

do you think that the pair is going upward next week?

ok, i short the pair to hedge out my long positions. i don't like the news about the nuclear power plants. they are saying japan has been making fake repair reports. if it goes kaboom, yen will go to 70 or below.

rollover is 0, so i'll wait and see.

i would still like to long the pair since i expect more intervention to come. i hope this is not a one shot deal like last sept. but i don't feel like having a position carrying it over the weekend since the market is closed for day and half.

Ok, closed at 81.834 open long at 81.940, LOSE just 10 pips at 0.30 only 30 bucks, remember i was losing -1500 dollars two days ago.....
So guys just be strong in the hard moves.....
Thank you Beljevina, Burgerking, etc, etc, for their support...
Next long two minutes before the next market session, no matter where the price is....
Oh as a matter of fact i also had another opening at 79.654 remember and closed at 81.321,having a nice 410 bucks profit (0,20)...

Happy trading day to all...
No regret
No surrender

They'll never get the yen to drop as long as the dollar is dropping too.

Swiss franc for that matter as well.

Big day for oil, dollar drops.

The dollar drops, and all speculation aside, the yen will rise regardless.

It's truly a matter of fair value, one against the other.

You have the world's number one and two economies both fighting losing battles.

Article is located here. Keep in mind that even during the 1995 earthquake, the yen strengthened enormously over a few weeks and months.

Did the Central Banks intervened already today?
Or did they just say "they will" only?

Very true Rj, very true.

Oki check this out, I placed a minilot short yesterday, the aim was 2 pips. I were just rounding up my account after a good week. Well, that didnt work out as planned. Currently down 60 bucks LOL.

I am not saying I will stop doing that cause it has worked pretty much every time before. Just have to wait and see how it gaps on monday if I have to take a loss or not

Still have withdrawn my monthly salary though... I just wanted a round number over the week end!!

Just wanted to share the tragicomical event.

If I am not mistaken Larseg, your risk to reward ratio is at least 30:1?

Hehe, its worse than that. its actually 1:50 but I only have a trade like this when I am very close to a round number. Lets say I have reached 18 996 dollars, I would feel bad if I didnt reach 19 000 before the week end. In fact I would rather have 18 900 than 18 996 Probably doesnt make sense for anyone than me

I have a friend who has a small sized position in several stocks and when they really go in profit he increases the position. He says its easier for him to have control of the market that way. If you ask me hes a lune, but hey. It works for him so, amen.

Equity wise my 1:50 trade there is less than 0.5% equity wise so its all good. I have widen the TP level now cause if it reverses, it will trend more.

However don't get too hung up with risk reward levels.
There is many ways to have a risk reward level implanted in your acc: not only in each trade...

You can for example have a logarithmic system with risk reward of 1:4 ish... Saying you stop trading that method if a risk or reward is reached within that method (logarithm). Before creating a new one or adjusting the settings...

Just saying don't get too hung up with what you read in articles and so forth. You need to figure out your own way and test it with a small acc: only then will you be successful I reckon.


Lars,

well said lars

how much power does BOJ have ? so-so , technical analysis is the king。

Good chart. I wouldn't get too hung up on that pin bar, if one is leaning towards a definite bounce. Why?

1) A pin bar represents indecision and inability to head/stay in one direction. In a higher timeframe a longer pin bar should represent reversal but
2) looking at previous such pin bars on the all-pertinent weekly USDJPY, they usually 'fail' sooner, but almost always later (again, sign of the trend power) in
3) the pin bar prints are strongly event/sentiment driven - and with this weeks, there are a number of black swan events.

In short, I wouldn't ascribe much meaning to it - Japan's issues have only become more complex, as has their inability to control them, currency related or otherwise.

IMHO, the forces that drove the yen here have been in clear control, including the plunge to the new WWII low. The once apparent strength of Japan and their central bank & Japan's economic policies appear miniscule in the face of this trend and their inability to arrest them. In this I include a prominent and overall (still) huge win by having driven their yen to a new high, which not even a coordinated intervention has made any serious dent towards. I believe it would take an unreasonable and unexpected amount of such interventions, which is historically unprecedented. Major policy and yen/Japan status changes are the key.

Traders need to play safe and bank early, and bank often.

A fairly helpful video review/explanation/perspective of the historic yen fall, it's timing, unprecedentedness & more. Still listening to it, but seems helpful, as well as explaining some of the inner workings of the fx market, specifically around the crucial 5pm fx market close time.

My view: it's important to recognize that fx market manipulation is always underway - otherwise the price would not move. But this event, is a real example of major shenanigans in one of the most liquid currencies in the world, at the most illiquid time in the market - a rogue/small group breaking a decades old low for one of the most powerful economies in the world during this timeframe in the day will have implications that we will yet realize.

http://www.forextv.com/forex-news-vi...sday-s-trading

Another's view on the intervention. My thoughts too are that next week is pivotal. (OK, it muchly echoes mine, so, I am posting it too ) Original here, all content below as well.

No Real Impact Yet.
In spite of bold announcement from the G-7 about a coordinated intervention in the Japanese currency, the Yen has not moved as expected. Chances are that the steps taken by central banks were not as drastic as they made it sound. Initial reports indicated their commitment to keep selling the Yen as the world turns, but that turned out to be an empty threat. Outside of the initial sell, there was no additional large spikes in the JPY pairs neither after the European open, nor during the North America business hours.

Virtually all news releases on the subject are somewhat inconsistent. For example, estimates about the size of funds committed to this operation by the BoJ vary from 600 billion to 2 trillion Yen. No word on how much the other central banks offered, only that the action was “coordinated”. Obviously, it was not that well coordinated, because the USD-JPY appreciated only about 200 pips and then surrendered half of that before markets closed for the weekend.

In order to convince market participants that they are serious about Yen depreciation, the central banks will have to move the USD-JPY (that is where the focus is) 400 maybe 500 pips and then defend those gains. Otherwise all this will be taken, perhaps even already is, as posturing and lack of resolve. Friday’s events demonstrate that talk alone with a token of action might not be enough. This time around there really is no time to wait and try to talk the markets into submission – if the intention is to help out Japan, the sooner the better. Next week we shall see if the 80.00 level is a designated line in the send and find out just how committed the central banks really are. (Mike K.)

Good video, thanks, good idea not go vs. concerted intervention and good idea to stagger in in small positions so at least you are in for part of the intervention. It makes sense that they will always intervene at different levels to keep you guessing if not you would wait for that level, they might defend 80 one time, after that who knows.