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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #23,461
  • Mar 18, 2011 3:35am Mar 18, 2011 3:35am
Quoting Beljevina
If it were "big guys", they would not have failed. It was a purposeful push up or upthrust because of buyers coming into the market minutes before the FTSE was supposed to open, based on speculation that BoE/BoJ would step in. Buy stops were trigger on the way up, but the "big guys" sold into it. That what they do - smart money sells into strength, and buys on weakness - they're always trying to stay ahead.

There's not guarantee that more central bank buying will occur, although they did announce and state they would. But no one knows when,...
thanks so much!!!
I just wonder who are trading against the G-7. they are really strong enough to fight G-7.
if nobody dares to fight G-7, then we will see a straight up move without any retracement!!
  • #23,462
  • Mar 18, 2011 3:37am Mar 18, 2011 3:37am
Quoting VinceS
I am having trouble reconciling the...
daym dude 120k wtf??? and here's me surviving on a 1k account lol!! geeza STOP trading today, go back to demo 3months and when u got it sorted come back, else u gonna lose the lot!!! GL
  • #23,463
  • Mar 18, 2011 3:44am Mar 18, 2011 3:44am
Quoting Beljevina
Don't have the full source yet, but the following just hit the newswires, and you get a surge ... more good news. (Although Deutsche Bank hasn't specifically said when they will do it - I guess one assumes today - but to be safe, do not assume )
Bank of England doesn't seem to have any impression on the Yen at all!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,464
  • Mar 18, 2011 3:46am Mar 18, 2011 3:46am
Quoting gh0stjpy
daym dude 120k wtf??? and here's me surviving on a 1k account lol!! geeza STOP trading today, go back to demo 3months and when u got it sorted come back, else u gonna lose the lot!!! GL
Are you married?

Damn , your wife is going to kick your ass.
  • #23,465
  • Mar 18, 2011 3:46am Mar 18, 2011 3:46am
Quoting Beljevina
..It almost sounds like you're planning for weeks or months out, perhaps through scaled in positions.....
exactly. I am not afraid of making a few decisions in life and usually this does work well for me. However I have now well and truly entered the learning zone. I have confidence I will be OK at the other side, not sure how big a mess I will have to "fix" but.

I thought I had learnt most of the psychological lessons and a good 6 pack of trading technique. But the sucker into the long at 81.91 shows me no I haven't! What I was waiting for is the push down before the break high, stupidly I thought this one must be going without an initial pull-back, something I have long figured makes a nice pile of cash for the big boys just to smash a few stops before heaving in for the big bucks. Tricky, tricky, tricky!

PS: Yes I am married, but I am also trusted and act responsibly even when making a total cock-up, it is the only way!
  • #23,466
  • Mar 18, 2011 3:48am Mar 18, 2011 3:48am
Just in case you didn't already know, apart from the Forex Factory news page this is a very good resource to keep up to date with intervention facts and rumours: http://www.forexlive.com/category/all
Gone to a better place
  • #23,467
  • Mar 18, 2011 3:52am Mar 18, 2011 3:52am
[quote=VinceS;4482014]suckered me in at 81.91 for 2 lots, so now I sit with my tail (and stop) between my legs at 81.19 to give the sucker a chance to run or maybe just another broken nose and black eye!

Of course, Japanese supremacy means the fall in 1995 would and could be much more and the disbelief ego thing would've kicked in big time. So, are there any lessons I wonder.

very sorry to hear
  • #23,468
  • Mar 18, 2011 3:52am Mar 18, 2011 3:52am
from above "offers at 82 are huge" does that mean an explode up? I have just moved stop under 81 and have sell stops scaled below that in case we prang again! Hopefully don't just swoop a bit.... This is on the same logic, if we go under 81 we will break stops and flash crash for a bit, IMHO
  • #23,469
  • Mar 18, 2011 3:58am Mar 18, 2011 3:58am
Talk about bad trading.

Yesterday I sold half of my long position at 78.30. I started worry it would go down again.

Now, I added to my longs at put SL at 81.30. Just got stopped out.

FX trading is not for me. I'll stick to equities which is a bit more transparent to me intraday.
  • #23,470
  • Mar 18, 2011 4:00am Mar 18, 2011 4:00am
Quoting VinceS
from above "offers at 82 are huge" does that mean an explode up? I have just moved stop under 81 and have sell stops scaled below that in case we prang again! Hopefully don't just swoop a bit.... This is on the same logic, if we go under 81 we will break stops and flash crash for a bit, IMHO
The party which joined against the USDJPY moving up truly incredible I must admitted!
  • #23,471
  • Mar 18, 2011 4:03am Mar 18, 2011 4:03am
Quoting J.Giordano
The party which joined against the USDJPY moving up truly incredible I must admitted!
well the a-h's have had 80 pips their way, and counting! everyone else will be waiting for the bounce, me to - hoping for at least b/e instead of trawling another 2k to its maker via a stop! dumb, dumb, dumb!
  • #23,472
  • Mar 18, 2011 4:10am Mar 18, 2011 4:10am
Quoting Astroman
Are you married?

Damn , your wife is going to kick your ass.
no NOT ME!!! i not lost 120k someone else has here, am just commenting, but yeh his missus gonna kick his ass for sure!!!!!!!!!!
  • #23,473
  • Mar 18, 2011 4:11am Mar 18, 2011 4:11am
Quoting VinceS
from above "offers at 82 are huge" does that mean an explode up? I have just moved stop under 81 and have sell stops scaled below that in case we prang again! Hopefully don't just swoop a bit.... This is on the same logic, if we go under 81 we will break stops and flash crash for a bit, IMHO
Once shorters are clear and we get closer to 82, and then nudge over, it should get taken up to around 82.5; I wouldn't say explode, but should be slow and easy, assuming we get that far.

I'm in awe how they have run down GBPUSD as a strategy to kill stops in GBPJPY - GBPUSD down 120 pips in <2hrs, thus running GBPJPY down 200 pips in an even shorter timeframe, given UJ was declining at the same time! (I don't think the declines in the yens are done yet, though)

P.S. - Did pretty much the same thing in EU and EY - EY down 140 pips as a result of EU + UJ!
  • #23,474
  • Mar 18, 2011 4:19am Mar 18, 2011 4:19am
can we still expect a volatile japanese market after the G7 intervention ?
  • #23,475
  • Mar 18, 2011 4:22am Mar 18, 2011 4:22am
Quoting gh0stjpy
no NOT ME!!! i not lost 120k someone else has here, am just commenting, but yeh his missus gonna kick his ass for sure!!!!!!!!!!
Just as an aside here, speaking as "the old dog" in life not trading (53yo so not "done" yet), my missus is well aware of my issues and knows what a terrible effect this stuff can and does have on a person. Her primary job is to be supportive and hopefully I will "find a way" out, if not well we didn't get our house and life blown to smithereens by a tsunami did we so its OK. Getting an ass kicking would only diminish the prospects of a recovery. This is how relationships should work, if anyone is wondering....!
  • #23,476
  • Mar 18, 2011 4:26am Mar 18, 2011 4:26am
Is it possible to know if the United States is intervening?

Would that indicate a spike upward on US open?
  • #23,477
  • Mar 18, 2011 4:28am Mar 18, 2011 4:28am
Quoting VinceS
Just as an aside here, speaking as "the old dog" in life not trading (53yo so not "done" yet), my missus is well aware of my issues and knows what a terrible effect this stuff can and does have on a person. Her primary job is to be supportive and hopefully I will "find a way" out, if not well we didn't get our house and life blown to smithereens by a tsunami did we so its OK. Getting an ass kicking would only diminish the prospects of a recovery. This is how relationships should work, if anyone is wondering....!
Good on you man....more power you. I too have a great lady beside me, and it's a treasure that is worth more than anything else.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,478
  • Mar 18, 2011 4:36am Mar 18, 2011 4:36am
It is advisable to hold on to the longs. May be a SL at 80 would be very safe. I am long from 81.36 and will be adding to it at every 25 pips on either side. Will close at 82 and wait for the next pullback.
  • #23,479
  • Mar 18, 2011 4:36am Mar 18, 2011 4:36am
Quoting VinceS
Just as an aside here, speaking as "the old dog" in life not trading (53yo so not "done" yet), my missus is well aware of my issues and knows what a terrible effect this stuff can and does have on a person. Her primary job is to be supportive and hopefully I will "find a way" out, if not well we didn't get our house and life blown to smithereens by a tsunami did we so its OK. Getting an ass kicking would only diminish the prospects of a recovery. This is how relationships should work, if anyone is wondering....!

Good attitude. But I am curious why did you bet the farm on this? the first rule of fx trading is never risk more than 2% of your capital on any one trade. Did you have a long string of losses or was it just one huge bet on USDJPY this week?
We're all stories in the end. Just try to make it a good one.
  • #23,480
  • Mar 18, 2011 4:37am Mar 18, 2011 4:37am
Quoting VinceS
from above "offers at 82 are huge" does that mean an explode up? I have just moved stop under 81 and have sell stops scaled below that in case we prang again! Hopefully don't just swoop a bit.... This is on the same logic, if we go under 81 we will break stops and flash crash for a bit, IMHO
It means sell limit orders set at 82 are huge, so expect high resistance at that level. Of course, this is rumour.

Not only is it Friday, but the intervention crap shoot is well and truly on. Crazy traders trade on, I say. I'm just going to watch.

Someone asked if it's going to cause volatility. Well, IMHO it will cause a lot of volatilility, across all pairs. Dollar strength is to be expected, of course, because with what do we sell the Yen? It is counter trend as well. We could be in for a very choppy ride in the coming weeks.
Gone to a better place
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