USD/JPY Discussion

2011.03.18 04:39:06*BOJ's Name On EBS Screens, Suggests FX Intervention Via EBS -Dealers
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ha...can we see that? and the volume?




2011.03.18 08:21:38MARKET TALK: Japan MOF May Try To Keep USD/JPY Above 80.00 - CA

I saw you closed your position.

Short is dangerous on this pair right now. Not to say it can't go down for a bit before the next tsunami, but there are plenty of pips playing the known direction.

Aside from that, keep in mind divergences will ALWAYS occur on those quiet consolidation periods. And they more often than not fail.

If you are going to play divergences, make sure there is a clear cut set of high peaks divided by a meaningful valley, or a nice set of lower lows with a nice bump up in between.

You'll wind up with a higher winning percentage

today is such a big chance for us to watch how the big guys trade in the market! we already knew g-7 had stepped in the market this morning and knew their object: push the market up!
but I still can't tell their behaviors from the PA, except the big bar at 0:00gmt.did they only trade at0:00gmt? or during the whole morning? it's hard to tell only from the PA.

any evidence?

2011.03.18 04:39:06*BOJ's Name On EBS Screens, Suggests FX Intervention Via EBS -Dealers
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maybe from the EBS screen,we can know their behaviors? how to get access to the EBS?

The overall scenario pretty well aligned with what I was thinking.

- Same as in 1995 Kobe earthquake, UJ came down heavily. Off course, I never imagined that it will hit 76.40. I closed all longs and stayed out at 81.0. Did not make money, but same time did not lose.
- This is the time BOJ can do the intervention with support from the world. They did intervene. I am long from around 80.
- Day 1: UJ went up too high, 260pips. I think the other countries will wait for sometime to intervene. They will do only if it turns bearish. For now it will stay at this stage atleast for today. As G7 already said they dont want a very volatile fx market. I think the same is true for UJ on the way up. It will be slow and steady. I closed my long positions and waiting for next pullback to go long.

I dont usually average down, but considering the support for UJ, I am thinking it would be good to keep averaging down within MM limits. What you guys think?

Central banks won't waste their ammos if price doesn't retrace at all. If fear of intervention is enough for a slow but steady climb no intervention will be done.

Let's remember this is Friday, nobody wants to be in the market over the weekend with the nuclear plant problem still unsolved.

thanks a lot mentor , im learning new things everyday.

yes, good point! but from the dealer:

2011.03.18 09:12:13*Japan MOF FX Intervention In Asia Hours Has Been Y2 Tln - Dealer
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the amounts of money MOF used is increasing during this asian session.

Unless the Central Banks act as one then there is no problem.

I am having trouble reconciling the expectations being discussed here with the historical info available earlier in this thread. There is the Kobe earthquake chart here http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=22630 and the historical interventions table here http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1300314231

The Kobe quaker saw a fall of 2,000 pips over 12 weeks and intervention started 10 weeks later after 1,100 pips with little effect it appears, assuming both those pieces of info are correct. For the current situation intervention has started almost immediately, which is different, plus it is to be coordinated this time, whatever exactly that will mean we will see.

But surely the rebuilding repatriation and the presumably better thing it is for the Japanese to bring dollars home with a high Yen means there is every prospect that history will repeat itself to some extent? I just don't want to get too caught up in the moment and believe the history is somehow irrelevant "this time" as often it isn't.

I care a lot about getting this right as I lost 90% my account yesterday. Not being US I hedged the last 10% and got caught by the intervention thus that was 20% that didn't get put back, I missed pushing the button by 2 seconds, the mouse was on the way, shyte happens! So I need to be back in with more long apart from the residual long position I am carrying that didn't get margin called out of existence. However if I get it wrong that is me done for 4X trading as I have turned $120k into 12k taking a long position as an investment. I had protection in place down to the "unthinkable" 77.5 level so thought I was pretty safe to just patiently wait on position until the US came through the doldrums to hit high 90's by mid to late 2011, well guess what, sheet happens! I have struggled back to 21.5k at present by at least getting some things right. These are (were!) my retirement funds, don't need them tomorrow, but I do need them!

Apart from the sharing of telling a misery tale which there isn't that much of in this thread, this is really a question to get our thinking caps on about what we can or should take from the historical info.

sorry to hear that! and scared me already!

wa, it looks like big guys enter and are trying to push the market up!!!!!!!but failed? is that the british market open???? anyway it's a market open i think!
at 0:00 gmt, the japan session open with a very big bar! this time there is no big bar(or just failed), what's the difference? the central bank of england(or some country) did't do the same as BOJ? the quick move just made by some speculators?


2011.03.18 09:53:39MARKET TALK: Japan MOF's Success May Damp G-7 Follow-Up -BarCap

Wow.

Damn.

Nah that was me. I pushed the buy button by mistake... my bad

You're right that we should have our thinking caps on - part of that is to also take in much of what is out there, published by 'experts', only a few of whom I 'trust', and always, always try to evaluate as critically as possible. It's kind of like being a CEO or manager - you succeed by surrounding yourself with the best and brightest, yet still make decisions. I'm sorry about your loss; not quite sure how 90% disappeared in one day. I have lost much as well.

In 1995, Japan was a very different place. There was no stagflation. The world was a different place. The yen was at 100. It paid interest. The 15 years that have followed have also unfolded a very different world. I'm certainly not doing it justice here, but all scenarios are different.

Today, we're looking at an intervention - part of it already undertaken, more hopefully to come, but remember - nothing is guaranteed. If one isn't already in the move from hours ago, finding an entry now is trickier and obviously less profitable.

It almost sounds like you're planning for weeks or months out, perhaps through scaled in positions. I know nothing about that, because UJ and the yen crosses could well return to low or lower levels in the coming days or weeks, because of other events; one of those events may be the option hunting after NY close yesterday that gave UJ it's new low. It could be actual catastrophic news around the reactors. There may be further grim discoveries regarding the earthquake. It might be due to the technology manufacturing that has been taken offline in Japan. Could be anything.

But I am not concerned with that. I am trading for today only. Worst case scenario, we drop down the few hundred pips I am up, and I cry over spilt milk. Hopefully, I will likely be cashing everything in during NY afternoon, if all goes well. That way, I am not exposed to any craziness that might occur Monday or days or weeks after that. Such is the life of a daytrader, and, probably safer.

lol

Yes it was.

Japan was going to rule the world at that time....no one could compete with them.

Reminds me of what people are saying of China today. China's fate will be the same if not worse. You can't treat people like slaves and expect to have lasting prosperity.

suckered me in at 81.91 for 2 lots, so now I sit with my tail (and stop) between my legs at 81.19 to give the sucker a chance to run or maybe just another broken nose and black eye!

Of course, Japanese supremacy means the fall in 1995 would and could be much more and the disbelief ego thing would've kicked in big time. So, are there any lessons I wonder.

If it were "big guys", they would not have failed. It was a purposeful push up or upthrust because of buyers coming into the market minutes before the FTSE was supposed to open, based on speculation that BoE/BoJ would step in. Buy stops were trigger on the way up, but the "big guys" sold into it. That what they do - smart money sells into strength, and buys on weakness - they're always trying to stay ahead.

There's not guarantee that more central bank buying will occur, although they did announce and state they would. But no one knows when, or what levels they are targeting. My guess is that the close of the current hourly bar will meet with the same type of anticipation. Where or if buying on behalf of BoJ steps in, remains to be seen.

Don't have the full source yet, but the following just hit the newswires, and you get a surge ... more good news. (Although Deutsche Bank hasn't specifically said when they will do it - I guess one assumes today - but to be safe, do not assume )